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Good evening folks.

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EURUSD.

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EURUSD 1hr.

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EURUSD has held below the wave (iv) high today which still supports the main wave count.
Wave (v) of [i] could take a few days to develop,
so I will stick with this count for now.

As for the alternate count,
this is still a viable option.
a rally back above the wave (iv) high at 1.0926 again,
will be enough to trigger that alternate count.
But,
if the price falls below the 1.0768 level again
that will rule it out completely.

Tomorrow;
watch for wave (iv) to hold at 1.0926.
Wave (v) must continue lower and break 1.0768 at a minimum.

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GBPUSD

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GBPUSD 1hr.

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Cable is making an effort to break the wave ‘iii’ high this evening.
If the price pushes above the 1.2486 level again,
that should be enough to call wave ‘v’ complete.
And then we should look lower again for wave [v] to begin.
Wave [v] will begin with a break of 1.2164.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (c) of [iv] to complete with a small break of 1.2486.

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USDJPY.

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USDJPY 1hr.

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I have to change the short term count slightly this evening.
The action over the last few days just looks too corrective in nature,
to count it as a developing five wave move lower into wave [c].

So this weeks sideways move is now labelled wave ‘iv’ of (c).
With the expectation that wave ‘v’ of (c) will break above 109.37 again
in order to complete the three wave correction in wave [b].

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (c) of [b] to complete below 110.00.
A sharp reversal lower off wave ‘v’ later in the week will signal wave [c] has begun.

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DOW JONES.

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DOW 1hr.

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The DOW rallied today off yesterdays lows.
But so far the market is still holding at a lower high below wave (B) at 23617.
The structure of that rally is in three waves,
So I am counting this as a corrective rally in wave (ii).

It is hard to know at which degree the price is now moving in,
but I have labelled this action as a decline in wave (i)
followed by a counter trend correction in wave (ii) to begin with.
I may have to move the labeling up by one degree depending on how things develop.

As it stands,
there is a high probability that we now have a small degree bearish impulse wave complete at todays lower high.
And wave (iii) of [i] should accelerate lower tomorrow.

Wave (iii) is likely to break below the 22000 level again.
As wave (iii) should be longer than wave (i).

If we have now turned down into wave [i] of ‘1’ of (C).
Then we are likely to see a serious new down trend take hold of the market over the next week or so.
This will be most evident in wave ‘3’ of (C),
but volitility will spike before we get that far into the structure.

Tomorrow;
Watch for 23617 to hold at wave (B)
A break of 22634 (cash) will signal wave (iii) of [i] has begun.

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GOLD

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GOLD 1hr.

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Gold continues to hover around 1647 for the last few days.
It is possible that the action is tracing out a triangle pattern in wave ‘iv’ pink.
The price bars are tightly packed together, and the range continues to contract.
So the best fit pattern right now is a triangle.

If wave ‘iv’ is still playing out,
then wave ‘v’ should push higher for the rest of the week.
The minimum target for wave ‘v’ lies at 1671,
although I would prefer to see a rally back above 1703 again
to confirm the larger trend higher is now firmly in place.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘v’ to break out of the triangle t the upside beginning tomorrow.
1671 is the first target.
Wave ‘iv’ should hold above 1639 as the triangle continues.

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CRUDE OIL.

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CRUDE OIL 1hr.

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(There is a discrepancy in my chart this evening.
I may be missing some information from my feed.
But the overall pattern is still pointing lower for the moment.)

Crude spiked higher this evening into the close of the session,
which has brought the price up towards the previous highs at wave [iv] again.
The action today has completed a clear three wave pattern into the highs.
So this adds an interesting twist to what is going on here.

I am still happy with the idea that wave [iv] is complete at the recent highs of 29.13 cash.
What has happened off that high may be a running flat wave (ii).
In that case,
the price must hold below the wave [iv] top.
And then wave (iii) of [v] must turn lower again tomorrow back into the low 23 handle.
Wave [v] itself should break below 20.00 to complete the larger five wave pattern in wave ‘3’.

Tomorrow;
Wave (iii) of [v] must turn lower again soon.
Watch for 29.13 to hold at wave [iv].

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S&P 500.

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S&P 500 1hr

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The S&P recovered the losses from yesterdays sharp drop.
The price has just hit a slight new high above 2753.
And with that,
the wave count has reverted to the previous count for wave ‘C’.

Todays rally is still viewed as the final leg up in wave ‘C’ of (B).
The most likely target now for wave [v] to complete,
lies at the 50% retracement level at 2788.
Wave [v] is not far from that level.
So I am still on high alert for a reversal lower to occur this week.

Wave [i] of ‘1’ of (C) should wipe out much of the rally over the last week.
With initial support at the 2447 low of wave ‘B’.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave [v] to compelte soon at or near the 50% retracement level.
Any sharp move lower off that target will be viewed as the beginning of wave ‘1’ of (C).

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SILVER.

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SILVER 1hr

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Silver has not given us much to go on today.
The price is still holding on to the gains made over the last week in wave [c].
And the action off that wave [c] high continues to look corrective.

In the larger wave count,
I still prefer one last punch lower in wave ‘5’ red to complete the pattern.
But I have one eye on that resistance level at 16.38.
A break of that level will signal wave ‘1’ up has begun.

Tomorrow;
A drop below 13.77 again will signal wave ‘5’ has begun.

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