Good evening to you all folks, and the Lord’s blessings to you all tonight.

A few stories that I found interesting today that all point to a global recession rising;

The hidden Chinese crash continues – https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/china-services-pmi-crashes-march-covid-crisis-worsens

Fed Just Getting Started As Economy About To Slow – https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fed-just-getting-started-economy-about-slow

Retail, Freight And Now Semis All On The Verge Of Recession – https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/retail-freight-and-now-semis-all-verge-recession

And then this comment from David Rosenberg;

Everyone who is calling for recession don’t see it until 2023. But with the Atlanta Fed back down to stall-speed +0.9% SAAR for Q1 GDP, and with negative momentum in real incomes and spending, I sense it’s this year’s story.

Thing is — the Fed may not care.

You don’t need the yield curve to know a recession is imminent.

The homebuilders, home furnishings, auto parts and specialty retailing stocks collectively are in a deep bear market and that is a near-perfect signal right there.

EURUSD.

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

We have an expanded flat correction now complete today with a break of the wave (a) low at 1.0900.
The action is now getting close to that invalidation line at 1.0806,
so the market simply must begin a turn higher into wave [iii] before the end of this week in order to hold with the bullish outlook.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (i) of [iii] to begin a five wave rally into the 1.1100 area again before the end of this week.
The low at 1.0806 must hold.

GBPUSD

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GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

Cable is close to completing a ‘i’ ‘ii’ pattern out of the triangle wave (iv) today.
Wave ‘ii’ may have a little more upside left to complete but.
but I am looking at a possible wave ‘iii’ decline for tomorrow to break that low.
The minimum target for wave (v) is at the wave (iii) low of 1.2996.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (iv) to hold at 1.3166.
Wave ‘iii’ down should begin before the end of the session tomorrow.

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 4hr.

USDJPY daily.

There is a reasonable chance that the top is in now for wave ‘B’ but we do not have confirmation yet.
There is a three wave pattern in place into todays highs,
and the expected Fibonacci retracement has been met.
The price has managed an initial spike lower off 124.05,
but we cannot confirm the top in wave ‘B’ until we see a decline below 122.40 again at the wave [b] low.
So at this moment I am in a wait and see mode.

Tomorrow;
Watch for the initial move lower to take over to begin a possible wave ‘C’ decline.

DOW JONES.

DOW 1hr.

DOW 4hr

DOW daily.

So far the dow has managed a three wave decline into the session lows.
Obviously I am looking for a five wave decline in wave ‘i’ to break the back of the rally in wave ‘c’.

We do not have a break of that key level at the wave ‘a’ high of 34100 yet.
I do think that a break of that high will add weight to the bearish count,
as that will rule out a larger five wave pattern developing off the recent lows.
So that is the level to watch over the coming days.

Tomorrow;
A further decline below 34100 is key to the idea that wave (ii) is complete and wave (iii) down is beginning.
And once that level breaks,
I want to see a clear five wave pattern overall in wave ‘i’ of (iii).

GOLD

GOLD 1hr.

GOLD 4hr.

GOLD daily.

The gold market seems to be ‘on hold’ this week as the sideways grind continues.
I do want to see a break of 1890 again pretty soon to confirm this larger wave [ii] correction is in play.
As long as the price holds below this weeks high at 1944.70,
then I can can stick with the main count.

There is a possible alternate count for wave (b) that can explain the sideways action over the last few sessions,
that is a contracting triangle in wave (b) as shown.
In that case,
the price must hold below 1945.50.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘iii’ of (c) to continue lower and break 1890 to confirm this pattern.

CRUDE OIL.

CRUDE OIL 1hr.

CRUDE OIL 4hr.

CRUDE OIL daily.

Crude oil is getting very close to that invalidation line for the main count.
That level lies at 92.31.
A break of that level will require me to rethink wave ‘2’ completely.
At the moment
we are at the end of possible wave counts for wave ‘2’ in terms of a standard zigzag or flat correction.
there is a possibility that wave ‘2’ is tracing out an expanded flat correction.
And in that scenario wave [b] can break 92.30 again.
I will just have to wait and see on that one.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (c) of [b] to hold above 92.31 and begin a rally again into wave [c] by tomorrow evening.
A break of 103.20 again will signal wave [c] has begun.

S&P 500.

S&P 500 1hr

S&P 500 4hr

S&P 500 daily.

So far the price is holding above the the wave ‘a’ high at 4420,
and the three wave decline is holding in a trend channel.
At this point the alternate count is still viable.
4420 needs to break in order to ruel out the alternate count.

If wave ‘i’ is now underway,
then I need to see further declines tomorrow to break 4420.
then a five wave pattern in wave ‘i’ should easily hit the 4300 level before the end of the week.
so all eyes on 4420 tomorrow.

Tomorrow;
this weeks high at 4595 must hold.
Watch for wave ‘i’ down to continue to fall into the 4300 level in a five wave pattern.

SILVER.

SILVER 1hr

SILVER 4hr.

SILVER daily.

Silver is now holding another lower high this evening and I have labelled this as wave ‘ii’ of (iii) of [iii].
The count continues to build pressure to the downside,
but we have yet to see the dreaded third of a third decline begin.
A break below 23.95 again will signal a possible wave ‘iii’ of (iii) is underway,
and that wave can easily carry the price into the 23.00 area when complete.

Tomorrow;
Watch for the high at wave (ii) at 24.93 to hold and wave ‘iii’ of (iii) to begin.