Hi there everyone, welcome back to a new week in the markets.
It was a day full of very interesting action from our point if view, so lets dive in.
EURUSD.
EURUSD 1hr.
EURUSD 4hr.
EURUSD daily.
EURUSD seems to have finished wave (iii) of [i] to the downside at Fridays low of 1.0772.
The action today was decidedly corrective and sideways,
which does fit with the idea that we are correcting in a fourth wave now.
WAve (iv) should trace out a three wave pattern at least.
I have shown a possible expanded flat a,b,c pattern this evening.
this calls for wave ‘c’ to complete at about 1.0860.
and then the price should return lower again in wave (v) of [i].
Tomorrow;
Wave (iv) should complete by tomorrow evening if it is a flat correction.
A triangle will take longer.
So watch for wave ‘c’ to top out in the area of 1.0860 and then wave (v) should begin.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD 1hr.
GBPUSD 4hr.
GBPUSD daily.
I am still holding out for a final top in wave ‘v’ of (c) after todays action.
The price action is pretty inconclusive today.
So I will have to wait for more clarity to emerge tomorrow!
Fridays low at 1.2203 has held so far,
this is labelled the wave ‘iv’ low for now.
And I will take any push above 1.2300 as a sign that wave ‘v’ has begun.
However,
If the price breaks down from here,
and drops below the wave (a) high at 1.1935.
That will signal wave [v] has taken over earlier than expected.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘v’ of (c) to complete with one last break of 1.2486.
USDJPY.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY daily.
USDJPY is holding onto the highs of wave (c) today.
The price has made some upside gain today in wave ‘v’ of (c),
but I think this will be short lived.
The larger wave [b] is complete as an expanded flat now,
and wave [c] is beckoning to the downside!
If wave [c] falls and reaches equality with wave [a] over the coming few days,
then we can expect wave [c] to hit the 104. 50 area when complete.
that action will complete a three wave pattern off the high at wave (D) in wave ‘A’ of (E).
The alternate count views the action at one degree higher than shown.
Tomorrow;
watch for wave [b] to top out soon.
Wave [c] should fall in five waves off these highs.
A break of 106.90 will confirm wave [c] has begun.
DOW JONES.
DOW 1hr.
DOW 4hr
DOW daily.
The DOW rallied strongly today and we are closing at the highs of the session this evening.
The wave count is calling for an up week this week in wave ‘C’ of (B).
Todays rally is viewed as the beginning of wave [iii] of ‘C’ (B).
This pattern is working out so far,
but we need to see this rally in wave ‘C’ continue throughout the week
and trace out a five wave pattern higher as shown.
Wave ‘C’ has an initial target at the 50% retracement level.
This level lies at 23850.
If the price continues higher in five waves and hits that target,
but then we see a sharp reversal off that level.
That action will signal a much bigger decline in wave (C) has begun.
So for the short term,
I am looking to that 50% retracement target to complete a very bearish lower high.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave [iii] to continue higher and break above 22700 at a minimum
before we see any consilidation in wave [iv].
GOLD
GOLD 1hr.
GOLD 4hr.
GOLD daily.
Gold is pushing higher today as a final move within wave [i] green.
Wave (v) of [i] is set to hit the previous highs at 1703 to complete that rally,
And todays action is pushing strongly towards that level now.
Todays rally is now viewed as an extension in wave ‘iii’ of (v) of [i].
I would like to see a consolidation in wave ‘iv’ pink
hold above last weeks high at 1640.
If that shoulder at 1640 holds,
then wave ‘v’ of (v) should continue higher and break above 1703 later this week.
Tomorrow;
watch for wave ‘iii’ to complete soon.
Wave ‘iv’ should begin by tomorrow evening and correct in three waves off that high.
The larger wave [i] should be done by the end of this week.
CRUDE OIL.
CRUDE OIL 1hr.
CRUDE OIL 4hr.
CRUDE OIL daily.
Crude gaped lower in the overnight trade and actually hit a low at 25.28 before recovering later today.
That was a drop of almost 400 points off Fridays high.
I am labeling this as wave (i) of [v] now done at the session low.
The rally off that low did not reach a new high,
so the lower high is labelled wave (ii) this evening.
Wave (ii) may continue through tomorrow and trace out a larger pattern.
But wave (ii) must complete below 29.13 at Fridays high.
Wave (iii) of [v] will be confirmed with a break of 25.28 again.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (ii) to complete below 29.13,
wave (iii) down should turn lower again by tomorrow evening.
S&P 500.
S&P 500 1hr
S&P 500 4hr
S&P 500 daily.
The S&P has broken out above the wave ‘A’ high after a strong rally this evening.
The pattern is moving along quite nicely so far.
And this rally should continue for the next few sessions at least.
Wave ‘C’ should trace out a five wave rally as shown.
And the target area is set at the 50% retracement level at about 2788 to complete.
Wave [iv] and [v] should be complete by the end of the week.
Ideally I would like to see a correction in wave [iv] of ‘C’ to hold above the previous wave ‘A’ high at 2650.
Tomorrow;
On a side note,
wave ‘C’ has already met the minimum expected target to complete this evening.
That is a break of the previous wave ‘A’ high.
So I am aware that this market could turn lower at any time.
Watch for wave [iii] to complete tomorrow.
Wave [iv] should use that 2650 level as support as it corrects off the wave [iii] high.
SILVER.
SILVER 1hr
SILVER 4hr.
SILVER daily.
Wave (v) of [c] has met the minimum target for completion after today rally.
That level lies at the wave (iii) high of 14.71.
Wave (v) can continue higher into the upper trend line of course.
But it is worth being aware of the potential for a turn lower now.
This rally in wave (v) should complete wave [c] and the larger wave ‘4’.
And I expect wave ‘5’ to push lower again very soon now that the pattern is completing.
This whole pattern rests on the wave ‘1’ low holding.
If that level breaks,
then the larger bullish count will take over and I will view wave ‘1’ as already underway.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (v) of [c] to close out and then turn lower into wave ‘5’ later in the week.