Good evening to you all folks, and the Lord’s blessings to you all tonight.

John P. Hussman, Ph.D.

@hussmanjp

In case you wonder what the 2-yr suggests More later this month, but some quick takes

a) Economic activity tends to weaken after 2/10 inverts

b) Curve tends to un-invert before recession – ISM, credit spreads, equities, job growth confirm

c) Risk-assets already face a trap door

EURUSD.

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

Todays declines are really pushing the limit of this bullish wave count now.
So I will be looking at alternatives over the next few sessions for the larger pattern in EURUSD.
For the moment,
the main count is valid until we see a break of 1.0945.
The next best fit pattern here is for a larger wave [ii] correction,
this is shown boxed in red,
and involves an expanded flat correction in wave [ii].
The main attraction of this alternate count is the visible three wave rally into the alt wave (b).
And then todays decline is in line with a possible wave (c) as shown.
We will see soon enough.

Tomorrow;
WAtch for 1.0945 to hold.
A break of that level wil trigger the alternate count.

Only a break of 1.1185 will signal wave [iii] is underway.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1hr.

GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

I have relabeled tonight’s chart to show a shorter wave (v) now underway.
The action over the last few sessions continues in a corrective manner and continues to contract in range.
This action does suggest a triangle in operation here.
Wave ‘iv’ of (v) is a good fit for this action.
And in this scenario we should see another drop into wave ‘v’ of (v) starting tomorrow.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘iv’ to hold below 1.3183.
Wave ‘v’ should break 1.2996 at a minimum.

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 4hr.

USDJPY daily.

USDJPY is stuck in a tight range today.
This can be explained by a three wave correction in wave [b] as shown.
And wave (c) should fall to a lower high tomorrow with a break of 122.00 again to complete wave [b].
Wave [c] is expected to rally again this week and break 123.03 at the wave [a] high.
This is the minimum target for wave [c] to complete.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (c)to [b] to form a higher low above 121.30.

DOW JONES.

DOW 1hr.

DOW 4hr

DOW daily.

It has been an altogether quiet day in the market today.
The massive squeeze higher in wave ‘c’ of (ii) has come to a halt now it seems.
so the question is now,
will we see a reversal into a third wave down begin this week.
The pattern off the wave (ii) high sure is pointing that way at the moment,
We have a possible minor impulse wave building to the downside again at this evenings lower high.
I will be convinced of a bigger imminent fall into wave (iii) of [iii] if I see a five wave decline in wave ‘i’,
and a solid, unanswered break of the 34000 level again.
That action will really add weight to the bearish picture here.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘i’ of (iii) to continue working lower in a five wave pattern as shown.
The price should not break 35370 again at the wave (ii) high.

GOLD

GOLD 1hr.

GOLD 4hr.

GOLD daily.

Gold is hanging above the 1890 level after a pretty flat trade today.
The price pattern still favors the downside into wave ‘iii’ of (c) of [ii] so far,
and if that 1890 level is broken again,
that will confirm this count.

Tomorrow;
There are a few alternate patterns in consideration here also,
but I am willing to let the action speak for itself here before rolling out those ideas.

Watch for the wave ‘ii’ high to hold at 1949.
Wave ‘iii’ of (c) must make progress to the downside again soon to confirm this count for wave [ii].

CRUDE OIL.

CRUDE OIL 1hr.

CRUDE OIL 4hr.

CRUDE OIL daily.

We do hove some upside this evening off the wave [b] low at 97.18.
There is a possible wave (i) of [c] now coming into play here.
That count will be confirmed with a break of 108.00 again.

That 108.00 level is proving to be a key level in this developing count now.
If it breaks,
then we are looking at a possible wave wave [c] of ‘2’ rally to bring the price up as far as 117.00 going by this count.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (iii) of [c] to continue higher as shown.
98.00 should hold from here as wave ‘2’ completes.

S&P 500.

S&P 500 1hr

S&P 500 4hr

S&P 500 daily.

The S&P is pushing higher this evening at the close and threatening the nice impulse wave off off the high.
As long as this impulse wave is in place,
the better the chance that wave (iii) is beginning.

I would like to see wave ‘i’ of (iii) fall into the 4420 level again.
This will really boost my bearish outlook here.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘i’ to turn lower again on complete five wave down with a break 4420.
4636 must hold.

SILVER.

SILVER 1hr

SILVER 4hr.

SILVER daily.

Silver has ended the day relatively flat,
Which is not in keeping with a possible third wave decline as I am looking for.

With that in mind I am showing an alternate for that wave (ii) scenario again.
The action into todays low can be viewed as wave ‘b’ of (ii),
and then a sharp rally back above 25.08 again will signal wave ‘c’ of (ii) is in force.

As for the main count.
IF the price does continue lower tomorrow to break the wave (i) low at 23.96,
that will confirm wave (iii) is underway.

Tomorrow;
Watch for a third wave decline to continue to build lower tomorrow.
if the main count is correct,
then we should see an acceleration into wave ‘iii’ of (iii) over the coming days.