Good evening folks and the Lord’s blessings to you.

The action today lived up to expectations I suppose and we have major progression within some patterns.
I always have one thought in mind on days like this.
easy come, easy go.
So I am holding back judgement on the significance of the moves today until we see some solid follow through to back up these counts.
For the moment,
so far so good!

I just want to mention that I may not be able to update tomorrow evening because we have our middle Childs first communion celebration.
That may drag on for a while so the Friday update may have to wait until Saturday!

EURUSD

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

Wave ‘3’ of ‘v’ came in with a bang today!
The rally has brough the price to within striking distance of that upper trend channel line now.
Wave ‘v’ has not completed a five wave rally yet.
So we might see another rally to hit that upper channel line near 1.1300 over the coming days.
And from there I will look lower into wave (iv) as shown.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘5’ of ‘v’ to complete the larger pattern in wave (iii) blue with a spike to hit the upper channel line near 1.1300.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1hr.

GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

We have a similar pattern here in cable after today hard rally.
Although the price did actually break above that upper channel line to create a throw -over in the pattern.
There is a better chance that wave (v) of [i] is now complete given todays action.
I am allowing for one more spike rally in wave ‘v’ of (v),
but I am not sure that will happen.

Tomorrow;
Watch for a sign that wave (v) has completed with a drop back below 1.30 again.

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 4hr.

USDJPY daily.

USDJPY has completely ruled out the recent wave count with todays sharp drop.
At least I can be sure now that something different was actually brewing!

On the 4hr chart I have shown the new setup for wave [ii] green.
Wave (c) of [ii] has traced out a much larger five wave decline as part of an expanded flat correction.
The decline today is viewed as wave ‘v’ of (c).
and the hourly chart shows the internal pattern of that fifth wave.

Tomorrow;
Wave ‘v’ should complete a five wave internal pattern as shown and I will have to wait until next week again for another chance to turn higher into wave (i) of [iii].

DOW JONES.

DOW 1hr.

DOW 4hr

DOW daily.

The Dow is now back at lows not seen since last September.
The euphoria rally is now a distant memory.
And the reality of the situation may now have some room to sink in.
If this wave count for wave (iii) blue is correct,
then we are about to get much more room to think as the pattern accelerates lower.

Wave ‘i’ and ‘ii’ completed a lower high this week.
And now wave ‘iii’ of (iii) has turned lower in a big way.
This wave has much more downside potential.
and there is even a chance that wave ‘3’ of ‘iii’ of (iii) is now beginning this evening.
That idea needs confirmation.
But if the market continues lower tomorrow without any major rebound rally,
then there is a good chance we see a break of the previous wave [iv] lows at 38400 over the coming weeks.
That will wipe the smile off a whole lotta faces!

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘iii’ pink to continue lower in a five wave pattern as shown.
WAve (iii) blue has a minimum target at the 38400 level.
that level is where wave (i) and (iii) reach equality.

GOLD

GOLD 1hr.

GOLD 4hr.

GOLD daily.

I may be getting ahead of myself here,
but todays action really does look like a top is finally in for wave [v] of ‘5’ of (5).
This is the type of action that a major reversal should begin with.

I will add to that fact also,
todays highs just topped out below the Fib target for wave (v) blue at 3173.
Add to that fact also,
on the 4hr chart you can see that this weeks highs formed at the target area of the Fibonacci target for wave [v] green.

These things don’t all just happen in a vacuum.
There is something going on here in Gold,
and I am just saying that my hunch here is that we have reached the end of this road.
If I am correct,
then the next major move will be a collapse in the region of 50% over the coming years.

Tomorrow;
This all wont happen in a few days,
so I am now looking for a five wave decline back below 2800 in wave [i] green to confirm my idea here.
This will take a month possibly.
Form this point I want to see a continued decline in wave (iii) of [i] over the coming week.

The recent high must now hold from here on out.

CRUDE OIL.

CRUDE OIL 1hr.

CRUDE OIL 4hr.

CRUDE OIL daily.

The action in crude oil has pretty much confirmed this wave count now.
Wave ‘2’ took a solid month to grind higher towards the 50% retracement level.
but wave [i] of ‘3’ wiped out those gains in one day!
That is quite a turn around for sure!

I am not sure if wave [i] green is complete yet,
but the price has fallen enough to bring us into the target area for wave [i].
I am allowing for one more step lower in wave (iv) and (v) to complete the pattern,
but if we see a rebound tomorrow that will signal wave [ii] has begun.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (iv) to complete below 68.00 and then decline again in wave (v) of [i] as shown.
A break of 65.00 again will signal wave [i] is complete.

S&P 500.

S&P 500 1hr

S&P 500 4hr

S&P 500 daily.

the S&P is back on track also today with a sharp drop out of that wave ‘ii’ lower high.
I am calling wave ‘iii’ of (v) now underway here.
Wave ‘iii’ should fall in five waves into the 5200 area ideally.
If this is wave ‘3’ of ‘iii’ now in play here.
Then we should see a continuation lower tomorrow as shown.

The decline today has brought the market down to the previous wave (ii) lows as seen on the 4hr chart.
And the next step below us now is at the wave [iv] low at 5090.
That level is in danger now,
and no one thought that was possible only a month ago.
How things change eh!

Tomorrow;
Lets see how wave (v) develops from here.
Wave ‘iii’ of (v) must complete a five wave decline as shown over the coming days.
and that wave ‘ii’ high must hold from here.

SILVER.

SILVER 1hr

SILVER 4hr.

SILVER daily.

That is quite the reversal in silver also today.
There is a good chance that wave ‘iii’ of (i) of [iii] is now in play after todays sharp drop off.
The action today definitely looks impulsive.
And now the support level at wave (b) is in reach here at 30.80.
If that level breaks then I think we have confirmation of the larger pattern.
But that will take a few days.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘iv’ and ‘v’ to complete another step lower to close out the larger wave (i) down.