Good evening to one and all.
EURUSD.
EURUSD 1hr.
EURUSD 4hr.
EURUSD daily.
EURUSD dropped again today to begin wave (iii) down.
Wave (iii) has traced out a three wave decline so far into todays lows.
This decline should extend further tomorrow into a five wave structure.
I also want to see a break of the initial support at 1.0784, the previous wave [b].
A break of this level should be enough to confirm a larger turn in trend down into wave [i] of ‘3’.
Tomorrow;
watch for wave (iii) to complete with a break of 1.0784.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD 1hr.
GBPUSD 4hr.
GBPUSD daily.
Cable is still contracting in range within a possible triangle today.
This triangle is viewed as wave ‘iv’ of (c) of [iv].
And once wave ‘v’ is complete,
the price should turn lower again in wave [v].
Wave [v] is expected to create a lower high early next week before accelerating lower for the rest of the week.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘v’ of (c) to complete with a break of 1.2486 and then return lower into wave [v] again.
USDJPY.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY daily.
USDJPY is pushing higher in wave (c) today,
after finally bottoming in wave (b) at 106.92 late last night.
Wave (c) is tracing out a five wave rally so far as you would normally expect,
with a spike higher in wave ‘iii’ of (c) this afternoon.
Wave (c) should continue higher to to hit the previous wave (a) high at 108.72 at a minimum.
That will complete a flat correction in wave [b] tomorrow,
and then I will look lower again next week as wave [c] gets underway.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (c) to complete at or above 108.72.
DOW JONES.
DOW 1hr.
DOW 4hr
DOW daily.
The DOW gaped lower this morning and reached a low at 20735.
This action should complete a three wave correction in wave ‘B’ blue as shown.
I think we can now begin to look higher into wave ‘C’ over the coming week.
The price spiked higher off the session lows this afternoon,
which adds a little more confidence to the idea that wave ‘B’ is now complete.
I have labelled this rally as wave [i] of ‘C’,
but I would like to see a little more upside in wave [i] before any correction in wave [ii] begins.
Wave [i] of ‘C’ should push up above 22000 ideally.
Tomorrow;
watch for todays lows at 20735 to hold.
A higher low above this level over the coming few sessions
will signal that a larger rally is developing in wave ‘C’.
We will probably have to wait until next week before that happens though.
GOLD
GOLD 1hr.
GOLD 4hr.
GOLD daily.
Gold has pushed back above the 1600 level again today,
which is relieving in terms of the bullish outlook!
I have labelled wave (iv) as complete at Tuesdays lows.
This count suggests that wave (v) is now underway.
And this should carry the price up above 1642 at a minimum,
but more likely wave (v) will carry us back up to the recent highs above 1700 again.
The alternate count is still equally valid at this stage.
This views the corrective phase in wave [ii] as complete already.
And wave [iii] up has begun.
In the short term this count is more bullish.
And we can easily see a rally towards the 1800 level in wave [iii] of ‘5’.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘iii’ of (v) carry back up to the 1642 level.
This will confirm wave (v) is in force.
CRUDE OIL.
CRUDE OIL 1hr.
CRUDE OIL 4hr.
CRUDE OIL daily.
The spike higher in gold invalidated last nights wave count.
It seems that 20.00 handle is too precious to let go just yet!
The action of late can still be viewed as a three wave correction in wave [iv] green though.
And in this scenario,
we will see wave [v] fall well into the teens before the pattern in wave ‘3’ is complete.
Tomorrow;
If wave [iv] is still in force,
then we should see a five wave rally in wave (c) of [iv] complete at about 29.00 again.
I think wave (c) has only completed three waves up so far.
Watch for wave ‘v’ of (c) of [iv] close out.
then we can loojk lower into wave [v] again next week.
S&P 500.
S&P 500 1hr
S&P 500 4hr
S&P 500 daily.
Wave [c] of ‘B’ completed this morning with a gap lower reaching 2447.
This price was right in the target area for wave [c] to complete.
So this afternoons spike higher off the lows is viewed as wave [i] of ‘C’ now underway.
The price should continue higher in a clear five wave structure in wave ‘C’ over the coming week.
This rally will complete a larger three wave correction in wave (B) by the end of next week.
We should see an extreme bullish % reading at the wave (B) highs,
along with headlines that the bear market is behind us and all is well again in the market!
Of course this will be opposite of the reality at that point.
Because wave (B) will represent the second biggest selling opportunity of all time.
And wave (C) will be an horrendous route on the markets and the economy in general.
Heaven help us when the next leg down gets going,
it will be relentless and leave many casualties behind it!
Keep one eye on the alternate count this evening.
This count views wave (B) as complete at this weeks high.
we will know by Tuesdays if this count is more fitting.
Back to the short term;
watch for waves [i] and [ii] to complete a higher low by Monday evening.
Wave [iii] should push back up to about 2700 to complete.
SILVER.
SILVER 1hr
SILVER 4hr.
SILVER daily.
Silver is inching higher in wave (v) of [c] this evening.
The minimum target for wave (v) lies at 14.65 at the wave (iii) high.
The price is close to hitting that level now,
so we should see an end to this corrective rally by tomorrow evening all going well.
Then I will begin to look lower in wave ‘5’ of (5) again next week.
One caveat exists to this outlook.
If the price pushes above 16.38 again,
that will suggest that wave ‘1’ up has already begun.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (v) of [c] of ‘4’ to complete tomorrow with a break of 14.68 again.