Good evening to you all folks, and the Lord’s blessings to you all tonight.

David Rosenberg.

We don’t need to debate recession. It’s arrived for 80% of the economy via real disposable income – -0.2% in Feb for the 7th straight decline. Only other time this happened? Try Dec’ 73-Jun ’74 amid the recession that few saw coming. Denial isn’t an effective strategy.

EURUSD.

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

We have the initial move lower in a correction today off the wave (i) high at 1.1185.
the pattern in wave (ii) does not look complete yet,
at best we have wave ‘a’ and ‘b’ complete after todays action.
I am looking for one more spike lower into wave ‘c’ to complete wave (ii) tomorrow.
WAve ‘c’ will likely hit the 1.1020 area when complete.

Tomorrow;
Watch for three waves down to complete in wave (ii).
Wave (ii) must hold above 1.0945.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1hr.

GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

The action today is not signaling the beginning of wave ‘iii’ yet.
But as long as the high at wave ‘ii’ holds at 1.3183,
then I will allow more time for wave ‘iii’ to develop.
There is a very small lower high in place at todays high,
and if we see a drop below 1.3050 again that will confirm wave ‘iii’ is underway.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘iii’ down to continue lower and confirm the larger wave count for wave (v) with a break of 1.3050 again.

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 4hr.

USDJPY daily.

The declines in USDJPY have slowed noticeably today.
So I suspect we are going to hit a lower in wave ‘A’ pretty soon.
The pattern off the top does need one more break below 121.30 again to complete.
Todays low was not enough in my book to complete this pattern.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (v) of [c] to break below 121.00 again to complete the initial wave ‘A’ decline.

DOW JONES.

DOW 1hr.

DOW 4hr

DOW daily.

The Dow is still just grinding sideways today,
and to be honest this action is looking more corrective than the beginning of wave ‘i’ down so far.
This obviously puts the short term count for wave (ii) in danger of being invalidated.
But as long as the market is holding below the 35860 high,
then I will stick with this wave (ii) count.

Tomorrow;
If the high at 35377 holds and the price does finally move lower again to break 34100,
that will really give this short term count a large boost in confidence.

GOLD

GOLD 1hr.

GOLD 4hr.

GOLD daily.

Gold has actually traced out a better three wave pattern higher off the wave ‘i’ low this evening.
the price is holding below 1966 low so far,
and now I am looking for a sharp decline to begin into wave ‘iii’ of (c) again.
If the price breaks above 1966 again,
that will trigger the alternate count for wave [ii],
ad then we can look to wave [iii] up beginning over the coming week.

Tomorrow;
I am still looking for wave (c) to trace out a clear five wave pattern lower over the coming week.
In this scenario,
wave ‘iii’ down must begin tomorrow and fall sharply to break 1890 at the wave ‘i’ low.

CRUDE OIL.

CRUDE OIL 1hr.

CRUDE OIL 4hr.

CRUDE OIL daily.

Crude actually looks impulsive to the downside today.
the alternate count has not been triggered yet,
but if this decline continues tomorrow,
then we are looking at a possible third wave decline next week.

Tomorrow;
As for the main count,
the low at wave (ii) must hold at 98.48.
And the price must rally tomorrow in wave (iii) of [c] to break above 107.98 again at the wave (i) high.

If the price falls continually to break the 92.00 handle again next week.
That will go a long way to confirming the longer term bearish count for wave ‘3’ down.

S&P 500.

S&P 500 1hr

S&P 500 4hr

S&P 500 daily.

Its been a few days of non action in the stock market,
but even so,
the main count is holding so far.
the reversal into a wave ‘i’ decline has not been confirmed at all yet.
So I want to see an acceleration lower to begin next week into wave ‘i’ of (i) of [iii].
For the moment,
I am just sitting here waiting for something to happen to point me in the direction of the nextg move!

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘i’ to begin with a spike lower and a decline below 4420 again.

SILVER.

SILVER 1hr

SILVER 4hr.

SILVER daily.

Silver does have a possible three wave pattern higher now in place for wave (ii) at todays high.
Todays high stopped short of hitting the 62% retracement level of wave (i),
and the price is falling this evening after hitting the high of the session.
This count has not been confirmed yet,
but the pieces are falling into place here to suggest wave (ii) is done and wave (iii) down is coming.

Tomorrow;
Watch for a drop below 24.55 again at the wave ‘b’ low to signal wave ‘i’ of (iii) is underway.