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Good evening all.
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EURUSD
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EURUSD is most likely correcting in wave ‘ii’ of (iii) to the downside.
the action today favors that idea,
as the fall off Mondays high is in three waves.
This suggests a minor ‘b’ wave decline within wave ‘ii’ pink.
Wave ‘c’ should push up towards 1.1350 again tomorrow to complete a three wave correction as an expanded flat.
After wave ‘ii’ completes a further bearish lower high,
I will be looking for a sharp reversal in wave ‘iii’ of (iii).
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘ii’ to complete at 1.1350.
A break of 1.1234 again will signal that wave ‘iii’ down has begun.
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[_s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_ccap_gbpusd)]
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GBPUSD
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Cable is still undecided between an impulse wave lower
and a triangle wave (iv) as per the alternate count.
The current ranging action will be broken soon,
as the market abhors this type of stagnation!
A break up above 1.3380 will trigger that alternate count,
while a break below 1.2960 will confirm the current wave count.
And then we can look forward to an impulsive decline in wave (i).
Tomorrow;
The lack of progress higher is saving the current bearish count for the moment.
Watch for an impulsive drop below 1.2960 beginning tomorrow.
The interim high at 1.3309 should hold.
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[_s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_ccap_usdjpy)]
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USDJPY
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USDJPY is quietly inching higher in the background,
with a possible impulsive wave (i) building off the recent lows.
Todays rise is labelled as wave ‘iii’ of (i),
and I don’t think this wave ‘iii’ is complete just yet.
We should see a break of 111.00 in wave ‘iii’ at a minimum to create an extension within the larger five wave pattern.
Tomorrow;
110.23 marks the high of wave ‘i’ of (i).
Watch for wave ‘iii’ to pull clear of this level and break 111.00 overnight.
Wave ‘iv’ of (i) must hold above that level also.
So 110.23 becomes the short term support.
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[_s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_ccap_dow_jones)]
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DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS
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The DOW completed a three wave move higher this morning
after a gap higher to open the session.
This three wave move is labelled wave ‘2’ of ‘iii’.
Since the high we have fallen again and closed the gap at the session lows.
I note that the rise off the low this evening is also in three waves
which suggests a correction higher again,
so we could see wave ‘3’ of ‘iii’ down get underway tomorrow.
A break of initial support at 25208 will confirm wave ‘iii’ down.
Tomorrow;
Watch for 25794 to hold and wave ‘3’ of ‘iii’ down to break initial support.
A sharp decline tomorrow will go a long way to confirming a top in place in the market.
25208 has a larger significance in that regard.
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[_s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_ccap_gold)]
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GOLD
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GOLD is continuing to create those bullish higher lows as we climb out of the last corrective lows.
Were not out of the water just yet,
we need to start pushing above resistance levels now to kick off wave (v).
Todays decline is labelled wave ‘2’ of ‘iii’ of (v).
Wave ‘2’ should complete above 1304.
And wave ‘3’ of ‘iii’ must arrive this week and carry the market above 1346.
A break of that 1346 level will confirm wave (v) up is in play.
The wave structure has a long way to go to complete wave (v).
With the initial target area for wave (v) in the region of 1375.
Slowly but surely!
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘3’ of ‘iii’ to begin with an impulsive break above 1330.
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U.S CRUDE OIL
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Todays rally has stopped right below the the previous highs.
So the bearish (i), (ii) wave count still holds for now!
But we must see a sharp drop tomorrow in wave (iii)
to break 58.17 at the wave (i) low to confirm the bearish count.
If the recent high at 60.39 is broken, I dont think a new high will be for long.
As the larger count is points to this exact price area as a major reversal zone.
Wave (3) down is beckoning in a big way.
And we will catch the beginning in wave [i], of that I’m sure.
Tomorrow;
Watch for the high at 60.39 to hold and wave (iii) down to turn sharply lower.
Wave (iii) will be confirmed with a break of 58.13.
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[_s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_ccap_us10yr)]
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US 10 yr Treasuries.
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The 10YR seems to be correcting now in wave (iv) grey.
The price rose in three waves to a lower high this afternoon.
Which suggests wave ‘b’ of (iv) is now complete.
Wave ‘c’ of (iv) should now carry lower towards 123.80 again to complete a three wave correction in wave (iv).
Tomorrow;
Watch for a decline in wave ‘c’ of (iv) to fill the trend channel at 123.80
the price should then turn higher again in wave (v) of [c].
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[_s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_ccap_silver)]
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SILVER
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Silver is dropping slowly this evening as a final leg down to complete wave ‘2’ of ‘iii’.
the low at wave ‘ii’ is shown at 15.26.
So this level must hold tomorrow as the lower degree wave ‘2’ completes.
Also,
we are a bit too close for comfort to invalidating the bullish outlook,
so we need to see a spike higher in wave ‘3’ tomorrow to get wave ‘iii’ up underway correctly.
Tomorrow;
Watch for 15.26 to hold and wave ‘3’ of ‘iii’ up to begin.
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[_s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_ccap_sp500)]
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S&P 500.
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The structure off the high in the S&P now shows a minor degree impulse pattern lower.
Waves ‘i’ and ‘ii’ have completed a bearish lower high,
and wave ‘iii’ down should now follow with a sharp drop into initial support at 2722.
The larger wave (i) down should bring the price back below 2700 again in a clear five wave pattern.
If this weeks action does trace out a five wave pattern lower,
This will signal the larger wave ‘C’ or alternate wave (3) is getting started.
And then we should be in for a serious leg down in the market over the coming months.
With the initial target in the 2100 region.
One step at a time though.
Tomorrow;
wave ‘iii’ of (i) down now needs to get going.
Watch for a break of 2785 at the wave ‘i’ low to signal wave ‘iii’ has begun.
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