Good evening folks, the Blessings of the Messiah to you!

EURUSD.

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

We are slowly but surely making our way down towards that minimum target for wave (iii) grey at 1.1735.
This level marks the point where wave (i) and (iii) reach equality.
So if we hit that point,
I can legitimately count a third wave as the most likely wave count.
After that,
the alternative really diminishes in probability.

Tomorrow;
for the moment I am labelling the minimum target for wave (iii) as a possible low in wave ‘iii’ of (iii).
So I am expecting more downside ahead for this wave structure.

Watch for wave ‘iii’ to complete at that 1.1735 area.
Any correction higher from there must hold below 1.1873 at the wave ‘i’ low.

GBPUSD

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GBPUSD daily.

I was speaking about the decline in momentum in the short term action in this mornings video.
I think that can be explained by a correction in wave ‘iv’ of (iii) in cable.
The price has traced out an expanded flat correction in wave ‘iv’ today.
And this should lead to a decline again into wave ‘v’ of (iii) beginning tomorrow.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘iv’ to hold below 1.3776 and reverse lower into wave ‘v’ of (iii) by the end of Fridays trade.

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 4hr.

USDJPY daily.

USDJPY has gingerly moved higher off a corrective low this week in wave [iv] green.
The pattern off the low has not traced out five waves just yet,
however wave (i) may not be complete yet either.
So I am willing to wait on a break of the wave [iii] resistance as to complete wave (i) up.

Tomorrow;
Wave [v] requires much more upside to complete the pattern.
the main target for wave [v] lies at 110.79.
so the very least we can expect is a break of the wave [iii] high in wave (i) at 109.35.

The price must continue to hold above 108.40.

DOW JONES.

DOW 1hr.

DOW 4hr

DOW daily.

I can’t argue with the idea that the decline off the recent all time high has traced out a three wave pattern.
This action leaves open the possibility that this is simply a correction within the larger wave ‘5’ blue.
And if that is the case,
then we will see a new high in wave [v] of ‘5’ again next week.

However much I dislike this possibility,
I cannot rule it out yet.
The world is crazy right now,
so there is no reason why this should not reflect in another all time high in this never ending wave ‘5’!

Back to todays action.
There is an argument to be made that todays early decline and then rally is all still part of a more complex wave (i) and (ii) scenario.
Where wave (ii) is completing now as a running flat with a deep decline into wave ‘b’ of (ii).
And in this pattern,
wave ‘c’ should hold below the wave ‘a’ high created on Wednesday.

If we see another sharp reversal tomorrow,
that will strengthen the bearish case and we are looking at steep losses next week into wave (iii) of [iii].

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (ii) to hold in that trend channel.
A break of 32000 again will confirm wave (iii) is underway.

GOLD

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GOLD daily.

Todays action is a little unhinged alright,
but I think the pattern that has emerged in wave (ii) is a little more satisfactory now.

We have a clear three wave sideways move at todays spike high.
The price almost created a double top at the previous 1746 high.
And then we have seen a sharp reversal this evening to begin wave (iii) down.

I am waiting for that break of 1700 again to confirm the larger pattern for sure,
but a break of 1719 again will be a strong signal that wave (iii) is underway.

Tomorrow;
watch for wave (iii) down to break 1719 and then accelerate lower over the coming days.

CRUDE OIL.

CRUDE OIL 1hr.

CRUDE OIL 4hr.

CRUDE OIL daily.

I am labelling todays decline in crude as wave (b) of [ii].
The price is holding above the previous wave [i] low today,
so it seems that wave [ii] is tracing out a zigzag pattern now.
And in this case wave (c) will rally again into the 62.00 handle to complete wave [ii].

Tomorrow;
6257 marks the 50% retracement level of wave [i].
This is now the main target for wave (c) of [ii] to complete.

S&P 500.

S&P 500 1hr

S&P 500 4hr

S&P 500 daily.

Todays rally off the early low does lean towards the alternate wave ‘ii’ count now.
I have not ruled out the idea of a running flat wave ‘ii’ much like the count in the dow this evening.
The short term count may be obscured a little at the moment,
but so long as the price holds the downside bias within that trend channel,
then I am reasonably confident in the bearish scenario overall.

I would be very interested to see a reversal off that upper trend channel line again tomorrow,
if that happens,
and we see a sharp move into the trend channel again,
then wave ‘iii’ will be a far more likely outcome.

Tomorrow;
Watch for the price to hold within the trend channel and to drop back into wave ‘iii’ again.

SILVER.

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SILVER daily.

The correction in wave (ii) is small,
that fact is sticking with me today!

however,
the pattern in wave (i) is a solid five down out of a corrective wave [ii].
And the price has broken below the previous wave [i] low again today.

So, overall the action is in favor of the main count.
The only thing that I am missing here is an acceleration into wave (iii).
but that may well be just around the corner if the short term count is correct.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘ii’ to complete below 25.34.
Wave ‘iii’ down will be confirmed with a break of 24.39 again.