Good evening folks.
There is a good chance that this week will see the end to the first leg down in the stock market crash.
That does mean we will see a significant rally coming our way, and with that rally we will see shouts of joy and adulation that the worst is over, the bull market has returned and so on.
But the rally I foresee should be a huge bull trap, and it will see the destruction of many a portfolio!
The actual pattern that is unfolding in this bearmarket has yet to be decided.
And I have a few working theories on how this could play out.
I am planning a big picture video this week where I will do a deep dive into the long term patterns and how they could pan out over the coming years.
I will post that later in the week.
For now, lets get on with the show.
EURUSD.
EURUSD 1hr.
EURUSD 4hr.
EURUSD daily.
It looks like we have a three wave pattern higher in place today in wave [iv] green.
The only slight concern is that wave (c) is in three waves so far.
This might be an indication that wave [iv] has some more travel left ot go before closing out a larger wave [iv].
I will monitor that possibility tomorrow.
for the moment,
we have a possible running flat correction in place at todays high.
The price fell before breaking the previous wave (a) high.
so wave [v] may now be underway.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave [v] to push lower in five waves and break below 1.0636 at a minimum.
When wave ‘1’ completes I will begin to look higher again in wave ‘2’.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD 1hr.
GBPUSD 4hr.
GBPUSD daily.
Cable hit a high in wave (c) of [iv] at 1.1931 on Friday evening,
and it has been downhill all day today.
the price is working lower now in wave [v] of ‘3’.
And wave [v] should break below 1.1400 before completing.
We may even go much lower that that level
depending on the pattern that develops in wave [v].
The same caveat exists for cable as for EURUSD,
wave [iv] could grind on for a few more days if a larger complex pattern develops.
A break of 1.1932 again will trigger that larger wave [iv] idea.
Tomorrow;
Wave [v] will be confirmed with a break of 1.1400 again.
And we should see a clear five wave pattern into the low of wave [v] over the coming days.
USDJPY.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY daily.
USDJPY is stepping higher into wave [v] of ‘C’ today in a slightly strange pattern so far.
It is possible that wave [iv] is a contracting triangle pattern,
in that case,
wave [v] began today off the low at 109.80.
Wave [v] should hit a high up around resistance at 1.1220 before turning lower into wave (E) again.
Tomorrow;
watch for wave [v] of ‘C’ of (D) to complete.
The next major move should be to the downside in wave ‘A’ of (E) later this week.
DOW JONES.
DOW 1hr.
DOW 4hr
DOW daily.
After todays action,
I am looking at a larger ending diagonal pattern now in play for wave [v] of ‘3’.
It looks like wave (iii) of [v] extended into a larger pattern last week,
and now we are dealing with the final sub-waves within wave (v) of [v] this week.
We still have three wave patterns in place within each separate leg of the pattern.
And the final drop into wave (v) of [v],
should create a three wave pattern itself over the next few sessions.
Once this larger wave [v] completes,
we should see a three wave rally begin in wave ‘4’ as shown later on this week.
Tomorrow;
watch for wave (v) of [v] of ‘3’ drop into the lower trend line at about 17500.
The next leg up in wave ‘4’ will begin with a break above 20000 again.
GOLD
GOLD 1hr.
GOLD 4hr.
GOLD daily.
Finally a turn in my favor in Gold!
Gold pushed back above 1554 in a nice impulsive looking move today.
I have labelled this move as wave ‘iii’ of (iii) of [i].
Todays action swings the probabilities back in favor of the bullish outlook,
but we are not out of the water just yet.
I cant really confirm the larger bullish count until we see a break of 1703 again at the recent high.
But If wave (iii) continues higher this week and breaks the 1600 level again,
that will be a pretty big hint that the price is turning in favor of the larger wave [i] again.
Tomorrow;
watch for wave ‘iii’ of (iii) to hold above 1516 again.
I want to see this rally continue higher this week without any major setbacks.
In order to get the bullish pattern back on track.
CRUDE OIL.
CRUDE OIL 1hr.
CRUDE OIL 4hr.
CRUDE OIL daily.
Crude seems to have found an interim low at during the overnight trade.
The price has held a slight higher low above last Wednesdays low at 20.54 today.
This is labelled wave (b) of [iv] so far.
We have not seen a rally take hold in wave (c) yet,
but so long as this higher low holds,
I will view wave (c) as underway in some form.
The minimum target for wave (c) in a flat correction,
lies at the previous wave (a) high of 28.57.
But wave (c) could rally all the way up to the previous fourth wave high at 36.60,
and that rally will still be viewed as a corrective in wave (c) of [i].
Tomorrow;
watch for the wave [iii] low to hold at 20.54.
Wave [iv] should trace out a three wave pattern with the target for wave (c) at 28.56.
S&P 500.
S&P 500 1hr
S&P 500 4hr
S&P 500 daily.
I have applied the same wave count to the pattern in the S&P today.
Although the S&P is operating at a higher degree than the DOW right now.
Wave [iii] of ‘5’ is now labelled as an extended three wave pattern.
The gap lower at the open today completed wave [iii],
and the rally off that level is viewed as wave [iv] which topped out a todays highs.
Wave [v] of ‘5’ of ‘1’ is now underway this evening.
Wave [v] should push down towards the 2100 level again in three waves.
And once that pattern completes,
I will be looking higher again in wave (2) for the remainder of the week at least.
If this count is correct,
then wave (2) has the potential to carry us back to the 2700 area again in three waves.
So when it does get underway,
it will be a massive bear market rally indeed.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave [v] of ‘5’ to find a final low at the lower trend line at about 2110.
A break above 2400 again will indicate that wave (2) has begun.
SILVER.
SILVER 1hr
SILVER 4hr.
SILVER daily.
Silver did not follow gold higher in an impulsive fashion today.
The price seems stuck in a larger wave [iv] correction as shown.
It is possible that wave [iv] is tracing out a 3,3,5 flat correction now.
The rally in wave (c) touched the previous wave (a) high at 13.27 today.
And wave (c) of [iv] may push back up to the upper trend channel line at at 13.86 to complete the correction.
Wave [v] should then fall back to a new low below 11.32 again.
Tomorrow;
watch for wave (c) to complete at the upper trend channel line.
A sharp move lower off that trend line will indicate that wave [v] has begun.