Daily Elliott Wave Analysis – 03-22-19 – A shift off the high?

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Hi there everyone.
I hope life was good to you today.

A few short house keeping notes.

I will be changing the way I present the weekend review from this week on.
Until now I have been uploading that video to youtube and allowing free viewing to all.
Not so anymore.
From now on,
I will be keeping the full weekend review video in the members area
for you guys only.
And maybe I will go into trade ideas on the weekly video.
If I see an asymmetric opportunity.

I feel like this is add’s a little more value to your membership here.

Anymore,
I may just do some short single market updates for the youtube channel.
We will see on that front.

as for this weeks video,
I will probably do that tomorrow evening instead.

Ok,
Down to business.

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EURUSD

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EURUSD took another hit today and has now broken the previous wave ‘b’ interim low at 1.1294.
This should be a bearish sign.
the decline looks to be in five waves off the wave (ii) high.
I have labelled this wave ‘i’ of (iii) to the downside.
If this is correct,
next week could bring a significant decline in wave ‘iii’ of (iii).

Monday;
A correction in wave ‘ii’ should come before a sharp fall.
Watch for that correction in wave ‘ii’ up to about 1.1350 again.

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GBPUSD

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The decline in cable is a little more complicated than the euro.
It is still possible that the drop off wave ‘2’ red is an impulse wave ‘i’ as a leading diagonal,
or a series of 1,2 waves lower.

the rally today is in three waves which suggests a correction higher,
and so long as we keep creating lower highs I think the bearish count is valid.

Monday;
watch for wave ‘ii’ to drop below 1.2960 again to keep the larger bearish count on track.

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USDJPY

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USDJPY extended lower today and has found support at the 50% retracement level this evening.
The decline in wave (c) of [ii] has now traced out five internal waves
rather than the double combination wave shown last night.
So I think we are at an end to this correction in wave [ii].
As the overall correction has completed a 3,3,5 internal pattern
which classifies the move as a flat correction.

Monday;
next week must bring a return higher for USDJPY.
A break above the wave ‘iv’ level at 110.95 will confirm the turn higher in wave (i) of [iii] has begun.

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DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS

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The drop off the wave (ii) high in the DOW is still in three waves so far.
The structure must extend next week as a clear five wave move
in order to stick with the idea that this is a decline in wave (iii).
A break of 25208 early next week will signal that wave (iii) down is underway.

Monday;
26000 must now hold at the wave ‘ii’ high.
And wave ‘iii’ down is expected to extend out and accelerate the declines.
I would like to see a break of the 25000 level again in wave (iii).

Watch for wave ‘iii’ to continue lower and break initial support.

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GOLD

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GOLD is creeping higher off the lows today.
I have labelled this as a rise in wave ‘3’ of ‘iii’.
But the action is less than convincing just yet!
It is now more important that the low at wave ‘ii’, 1298.50 hold.
Wave ‘3’ must break 1320 to be confirmed as an impulse wave higher.

Monday;
Watch for wave ‘3’ of ‘iii’ to continue higher and and break 1328 at a minimum.

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U.S CRUDE OIL

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The market has turned lower again in lockstep with risk assets in general.
This is not a good sign for crude
if indeed a bearmarket is turning over into the next leg down again.
Wave (3) down will crush the crude market if this is the case.

The drop off the high looks impulsive and I have labelled this wave (i) of [i].
The larger wave [i] should break the previous fourth wave wave at 54.70 again to confirm this trend change.

Monday;
Watch for The 50% retracement level to hold at 59.60 in wave (ii).
Wave (iii) down should arrive by mid week next.

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US 10 yr Treasuries.

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Wave ‘iii’ of (iii) did indeed rally to new highs today.
Wave (iii) is now well into its travel and should break above 124.90 to complete.
This is where wave (iii) reaches the 162% extension of wave (i).

The whole rally in wave [c] will probably be done by the end of the month.
The upper target for wave [c] lies at about 126.00 so we are well underway now.

Monday;
Watch for wave (iii) to continue higher over the coming days.
122.60 should continue to hold.

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SILVER

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It is interesting that Silver has fallen in three waves so far into todays lows.
This may suggest that wave ‘3’ is already underway.
If we see a push higher on Monday,
and a break of 15.70 again,
this will confirm that the correction is over and wave ‘i’ of (iii) is underway.

Monday;
The recent low at wave ‘2’ must continue to hold
and wave ‘i’ should push towards 16.18 again.

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S&P 500.

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The S&P dropped in a nice impulsive pattern today which looks close to completing five waves down.
The price is back at 2800 again and has closed at the lows of the session.
Are we at the cusp of that elusive bearmarket crash in wave ‘C’.
Or maybe even something bigger in wave (3) down,
that is the question.

The answer lies in five waves down off the high.
A break of 2722 next week will be a real step in the right direction.

I am pretty happy about the fact that the market is turning lower
even though the FED has gone out on a limb to prop everything up.
This really speaks to the fact that we are at the end of the leverage crank in general.

And I think the market knows this!

Monday;
I want to see that five wave move develop in wave (i) down.
Watch for a lower corrective high in wave ‘ii’ by Monday.
Wave ‘iii’ down should bring a sharp move lower.

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I wish you all an enjoyable weekend.
God bless.
See you Monday evening as usual!

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