Hi there everyone.
EURUSD.
EURUSD 1hr.
EURUSD 4hr.
EURUSD daily.
EURUSD continues to fall for a second day,
so the odds are rising that we have see the top of wave ‘C’ and wave (2) at 1.1492.
The short term action has not created a clear impulse wave lower yet,
but I have labelled the action as a series of 1,2 waves lower.
This pattern could develop into a larger five waves down over the coming days.
Tomorrow;
If this pattern is correct off the recent high,
then we should see a further decline into wave (iii) down by the end of this week.
Watch for wave ‘iii’ of (iii) to push down towards the previous fourth wave at 1.1095.
1.1360 should hold.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD 1hr.
GBPUSD 4hr.
GBPUSD daily.
Cable may have topped out in wave ‘iv’ pink early in the session today.
The price spiked to a high at 1.2975
and then sold off that level again.
There are a few ways that wave ‘iv’ could develop,
but for the moment I will take that 1.2975 high as wave ‘iv’.
If wave ‘v’ is now underway,
then I expect to see a continued declines into support for the next days or so
until wave (i) down completes.
Tomorrow;
watch for wave ‘iv’ to hold at 1.2975.
Wave ‘v’ down should drop into support at 1.2725.
USDJPY.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY daily.
The action in USDJPY today is looking like a small triangle pattern right now.
In this case,
wave [b] should hold above 104.43 overnight.
And after that a rally back above 105.93 will signal that wave [c] has begun.
Wave ‘A’ should top out at the shoulder within the previous decline in the area of 108.55.
Tomorrow;
watch for wave [b] to complete a triangle above 104.43.
Wave [c] should continue higher with a spike out of the triangle that breaks 105.93.
DOW JONES.
DOW 1hr.
DOW 4hr
DOW daily.
The DOW is dropping again today quite sharply,
but so far the decline is only in three waves.
If we see another leg lower early tomorrow which pushes down to the 23000 level,
that will confirm wave (i) of [iii] is in place.
The alternate count is focused on that three wave decline off yesterdays high.
This can also be viewed as wave (b) of a larger wave [ii].
In this case wave [c] will push higher early tomorrow,
and break 24680 to confirm the count.
The alternate wave [ii] scenario should top out at about 25300 again.
Tomorrow;
Watch for a clear five wave pattern to develop in wave (i) down and complete at about 23000,
before wave (ii) corrects higher in three waves again.
GOLD
GOLD 1hr.
GOLD 4hr.
GOLD daily.
Gold is dropping again this evening after a recovery early today,
and the action is more impulsive looking now.
I have switched to the alternate count on the short term chart.
This involves a larger three wave correction off the recent 1703 high.
Waves (a) and (b) are three wave patterns,
and now the price is falling in a five wave form.
This suggests wave [ii] is a 3,3,5 flat correction.
I do not expect a whole lot more downside in wave [ii],
as the price has already hit the 50% retracement level of wave [i].
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (c) of [ii] to complete very soon.
Wave (i) of [iii] should begin before the end of the week and push back up towards the 1700 level again.
CRUDE OIL.
CRUDE OIL 1hr.
CRUDE OIL 4hr.
CRUDE OIL daily.
Who would have thought that we would be talking about oil trading with a 20 handle this year!
Well I did,
but the world at large thought that $100 crude was just a few months away back late last year.
The market can really turn on a dime!
Anyway.
Crude did manage a slightly higher high today before this new selloff began.
The price completed a three wave pattern higher,
which reached back into the previous gap left after Mondays open at 36.67.
If wave (iv) is now complete at todays high of 36.67,
then wave (v) should now fall back below 27.58 again to complete the decline in wave [iii].
A break of the 30.00 level again will signal wave ‘v’ is well underway.
Tomorrow;
36.67 should hold.
Watch for wave (v) down to continue to complete the larger wave [iii] below 27.58.
S&P 500.
S&P 500 1hr
S&P 500 4hr
S&P 500 daily.
It is a similar situation in the S&P this evening.
The main wave count is going well so far,
but there is the a possibility that a larger wave [ii] is developing as an alternate.
A rally from this point which breaks 2841 again will trigger the alternate count.
The price falling again into this close this evening,
and the decline off wave [ii] has traced out a three wave pattern.
The main count suggests that wave (i) will decline in five waves
and hit a low at 2830 or so to complete by the end of the week.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘iii’ of (v) break 2698 again and continue lower tomorrow.
2841 must hold.
SILVER.
SILVER 1hr
SILVER 4hr.
SILVER daily.
Silver is showing a pretty interesting alternate pattern this evening.
There is a small chance that this weeks action has created a ‘i’ ‘ii’ pattern to the upside off that 16.54 low.
This would involve a leading diagonal wave ‘i’,
with a three wave correction in wave ‘ii’ at tonights lows.
The price must hold above 16.54 for this to a remain valid option.
As for the main count,
wave (v) can still break 16.38 again before making any turn higher to begin the next leg up.
Tomorrow;
watch that alternate count.
A break above 17.80 again will signal wave (i) is underway.
16.54 must hold in that case though.