Good evening to you all,

the Lord’s blessings to you all tonight.

Ok,
I think my main emotion today is summed up with the word ‘phew’ –
along with wiping the sweat off my brow onto my forearm!

EURUSD.

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

EURUSD is now back above the declining trend channel formed by wave [v] green.
the price has not traced out five waves up yet,
but I can consider today acceleration higher as a possible third wave within that developing five wave structure.
We need this rally to continue for the next few sessions in wave [i] or [a].
And then next week we should be able to finally confirm the low of wave (D),
and the beginning of a three wave rally into wave (E).
The longer term target for wave (E) is still in the area of 1.20 again.

Tomorrow;
watch for wave [i] to continue higher in five waves as shown.
I would like to see the price hold above 1.1000 as wave [i] continues.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1hr.

GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

Cable has not reacted off the lows in quite the same impulsive fashion as EURUSD today.
The price needs to get back above 1.3200 and at least show some momentum increase to the upside in order to signal wave ‘4’ has bottomed at 1.3082.
At the moment we do have a five wave pattern in place for wave (c) into this weeks low.
and the trend channel is almost filled.
All I can do is wait for a step higher to signal the low is in for wave ‘4’.
and then begin to work on wave ‘5’ up.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (i) up to build a five wave pattern higher over the remainder of this week.
Wave ‘4’ must hold at 1.3082.

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 4hr.

USDJPY daily.

We have a possible (i) (ii) pattern higher building in USDJPY this week also.
Wave (i) has broken out above the previous wave [d] at 115.80 over the last days.
and there is also a possible three wave correction in wave (ii) at today low.
Wave (ii) can always build a larger corrective pattern lower,
but it is interesting to see a spike back to the highs to complete the session this evening.
This will be one to watch tomorrow.
A further rally to break above 116.33 will signal wave (iii) is underway.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (ii) to complete a higher low above 114.70.
A further rally back above 116.33 will signal wave (iii) is in play.

DOW JONES.

DOW 1hr.

DOW 4hr

DOW daily.

Despite another rally today back off the lows,
the pattern in action this week is a three wave move higher.
so the alternate count for wave ‘i’ and ‘ii’ is still a possibility here.
the key to triggering the alternate count will be a sharp decline from here,
that accelerates below the 32230 low at wave (i) again.

The main count cannot be ruled out until we get a break of that low again.
So I can allow for a further rally into wave ‘c’ of (ii) from here,
and I can still hold the bearish overall outlook.

Tomorrow;
Watch for a rally in wave ‘c’ to break above 34000 to rule out the alternate count.

As for the alternate count,
a break of the wave (i) low will favor that count.

GOLD

GOLD 1hr.

GOLD 4hr.

GOLD daily.

Gold has fallen in three waves off the highs so far.
Of course this can be viewed as a full correction into wave [ii],
but I think the level of fear and wild buying needs a little more downside in order to wash out the speculation
and find a healthy higher low in wave [ii] over the coming few sessions.

I have labelled todays decline as wave (a) of [ii],
we are close to a low in wave (a) this evening,
but I am not sure this first leg down is done just yet.

I will be watching the overnight trade to see.
An early spike higher tomorrow will signal wave (b) is underway.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (a) to complete three waves down in the area of the 38.2% retracement of wave [i].
that gives us a target at 1959.

CRUDE OIL.

CRUDE OIL 1hr.

CRUDE OIL 4hr.

CRUDE OIL daily.

I think we can call that a 25% decline in crude in one session!
That is close to a record I think……

I am a little more confident on the short term count after todays trade,
but you will forgive me for being hesitant on absolutes tonight.
God Himself only knows what tomorrow will bring here.

There is a possible five wave pattern building off the highs,
but that will require a few more subdivisions to the downside in order to complete wave ‘1’ blue.
So the short term pattern is a bit delicate here.
Wave [iii] down needs another leg lower,
and then wave ‘1’ requires the same after that.
Lets just see what tomorrow brings here.

As for the geopolitical effects on this market,
Let me say something wild here.
there is a road out of this mess developing here which has every chance of crashing this market.
Venezuela is going to get back into the world market it seems,
and Iran is on the cusp of the same this week.
If this war in Ukraine actually comes to a negotiated conclusion also,
and Russian sanctions also get dropped.
then we have three producers back into the world market in quick succession.

What happens to prices then??

Tomorrow;
I will keep a close eye on a correction in wave (iv) of [iii] tomorrow.
Another step lower into wave (v) will complete wave [iii].

S&P 500.

S&P 500 1hr

S&P 500 4hr

S&P 500 daily.

The S&P is in a similar position as the dow right now.
Both indices are moving in tandem which is very understandable in times of rampant fear.

There is a three wave pattern in place off the low this week.
This leaves the door open for the alternate count showing a ‘i’ ‘ii’ bearish impulse wave down.
If this count is correct,
then we will see a sharp reversal beginning tomorrow into wave ‘iii’ of (iii) of [iii].
And that wave down will be a real shocker,
with potential to hit the 3800 handle with a larger acceleration.

As for the main count,
I cannot rule that out at all yet.
A rally back above the 4350 level will pretty much seal the deal on the main count.
and then we can expect wave ‘c’ to hit 4420 at a minimum.

Tomorrow;
Wave ‘c’ should continue higher tomorrow to rule out the alternate count.

But just watch that three wave pattern higher in the alternate wave ‘ii’,
any sharp decline from here will favor that bearish count.

SILVER.

SILVER 1hr

SILVER 4hr.

SILVER daily.

Three waves down in silver also today.
The decline can be viewed as a developing five wave decline as suggested,
but we do need more downside again as shown to confirm that view.
I would like to see wave [i] down break the 25.00 handle again to confirm this short term count.
If the market holds in a corrective form tomorrow in wave (iv),
then this bearish count will get a major boost.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave [i] down to continue lower in five waves.
Ideally the price should hold below 25.97 again at the wave (i) low.