Good evening all.
EURUSD.
EURUSD 1hr.
EURUSD 4hr.
EURUSD daily.
EURUSD has risen in a possible three wave form into this evenings high.
This rise is labelled as wave (b) of [iv].
With wave (c) left to fall back to complete wave [iv].
Todays high broke above the 1.1212 high at wave [iii].
So wave [iv] is now classed as an expanded flat correction.
Wave (c) should fall below the wave (a) low at 1.1095 to complete the expanded flat.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (c) down to break the wave (a) low at 1.1095.
And then we should see a rally in wave [v] begin.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD 1hr.
GBPUSD 4hr.
GBPUSD daily.
Todays action is the first reasonable move higher in cable in over two weeks.
It is possible now that wave ‘c’ is underway,
But the action is still not favorable as an impulse pattern.
We have not shaken off the awkward looking price pattern yet.
And we have not broken the initial resistance at 1.3018.
All this adds to mysuspicion,
but a rally is a rally so I am sticking with the wave ‘c’ count for now.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘c’ to break above 1.3018 to add confidence to the short term count.
USDJPY.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY daily.
Wave [v] of ‘C’ is falling again today as suggested by the count last night.
It looks like wave [v] is now tracing out an internal five wave pattern itself.
This is shown on the chart tonight.
Wave (iv) and (v) are left to go before completing the larger pattern,
Si it looks like the overnight action will be lower still.
Tomorrow;
watch for wave (iv) and (v) to continue lower to complete wave ‘C’.
This decline must complete above 104.44,
this level marks the low of wave (C) of the large triangle I am tracking.
So this level must not break.
DOW JONES.
DOW 1hr.
DOW 4hr
DOW daily.
The correction in wave ‘2’ is really starting to take shape now after todays session.
Last nights rally in wave (b) topped out at the previous high of 27085.
This level has offered serious resistance today,
and the price fell throughout the day.
This evening,
the DOW is closing at the lows of the session.
So wave (c) of [b] is now well underway.
We are now reaching the minimum target for wave (c),
which lies at the previous wave (a) low of 25710.
Once we see a complete three wave flat correction in wave [b].
Then it will be time to look higher again into wave [c] of ‘2’.
Wave ‘2’ could reach back towards the 28000 level again,
if wave [c] goes all the way to touch the upper trend line shown.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (c) to complete with a break of 25710.
And then wave [c] should turn higher.
The alternate count calls for this decline to continue and break 24680 at a minimum.
This count is viable but less likely at the moment.
GOLD
GOLD 1hr.
GOLD 4hr.
GOLD daily.
The new wave count in Gold is performing well so far.
The price bottomed after a three wave decline in wave [a] at 1561 last week.
And now wave [b] has rallied by over $100 off that low,
the move is also in three waves so far.
Wave [b] of ‘4’ could make a new high in an expanded flat scenario.
But it will be short lived I’m afraid!
Once wave [b] tops out,
then wave [c] should fall again back into 1561 to complete the three wave correction in wave ‘4’.
As for the more bullish alternate count,
if the price completes a clear five wave rally off the wave [a] low,
That action could tip the scales in favor of the alternate count, then it will be time to prepare for the larger wave ‘5’ to begin.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave [b] to top out and turn lower into wave [c].
Wave [c] should take up most of next weeks trade.
CRUDE OIL.
CRUDE OIL 1hr.
CRUDE OIL 4hr.
CRUDE OIL daily.
There are a few alternate scenarios that are brewing in my mind for crude oil right now,
but I think I will save then for the weekend video,
so I can dive into them in a little more detail.
Ok, back to today.
The price is declining again tdoay,
but the pattern off the wave ‘iv’ high has not developed in five waves yet.
If we see a continued decline tomorrow to break 44.92 at least,
then I will be a little happier about this short term count.
Wave ‘v’ should continue back below 43.57 at a minimum,
before any larger correction in wave (iv) begins.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘v’ to continue lower.
48.73 must hold at the recent wave ‘iv’ high.
S&P 500.
S&P 500 1hr
S&P 500 4hr
S&P 500 daily.
The S&P did not hit a new high in wave (b) last night,
so the larger wave [b] in green is still tracing out a regular flat correction so far.
Todays decline is viewed as wave (c) of [iv],
and that decline is almost at the target this evening.
Wave (c) should hit 2975 at a minimum,
before the price begins to rally again up in wave [c] of ‘2’.
The larger wave ‘2’ has a preliminary target at the upper trend channel line at about 3250 or so.
Tomorrow;
watch for wave [b] to complete with a break of 2975.
A break of 2853 will trigger the alternate count.
In which case we will likely see a bearish lower high develop in waves [i] and [ii] as shown.
SILVER.
SILVER 1hr
SILVER 4hr.
SILVER daily.
Silver is higher today out of that small contracting triangle pattern which developed yesterday.
Price is hitting resistance again tonight at 17.45.
And the pattern has created a three wave rally off the wave (iii) low so far.
All this points to a completing correction in wave (iv),
and I expect wave (v) should turn lower again beginning tomorrow.
As for the alternate view,
if we see a continued rally that breaks above the 18.20 level again,
that will suggest wave [i] has already begun.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (v) of [c] to turn lower again.
16,38 is the initial target.