Good evening folks, and may the Almighty Lord bless you all tonight.

EURUSD.

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

I am in two minds this evening on EURUSD,
nothing new there, says you!
I don’t know if todays step lower was the completion of wave [i] down as a wedge type pattern,
or if it is an extension within wave (iii) of [i].
The only way to know for sure which pattern is correct,
is by the size of any correction higher that may happen off the lows.
A shallow correction here favors the main count,
a larger correction higher will favor the alternate.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (iii) down to break 1.2023.
Wave (iv) must hold below 1.2135.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1hr.

GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

cable traced out a small three wave rally overnight and this morning in wave ‘iv’ pink.
The drop off the high is not impulsive yet,
but if we do break to a new low below wave ‘iii’,
then wave ‘v’ will hit the minimum target at 1.3888,
that will complete the basic requirement for five waves down into wave (i).

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘iv’ to hold at 1.4000.
I would like to see wave (i) complete below 1.3829.

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 4hr.

USDJPY daily.

The further rise in USDJYP today is still viewed as the completing pattern within wave [i] of ‘3’.
The price is just hugging the upper trend channel line this evening,
and I expect this will offer enough resistance to begin a decline into wave [ii] soon.

Wave (v) of [i] seems to be forming an ending diagonal at todays high.
And that action is another hint in favor of a correction coming our way.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave [ii] to begin a decline off the high in three waves.
wave [ii] should decline to the previous fourth wave low at 105.84.

DOW JONES.

DOW 1hr.

DOW 4hr

DOW daily.

The Dow rallied sharply today and so far I can label this rally as a counter trend wave (ii) underway.
The price has reached above the 62% retracement level so far,
So I want to see this rally stop tomorrow,
and then a reversal form into wave (iii) down.

The alternate count for wave [v] green will allow for a further rally in wave (c) of [v] this week.
Wave (b) in this case is an expanded flat at last weeks lows.
But I want to rule this count out tomorrow and just get on with the inevitable!
I will just have to wait and see though.

Tomorrow;
If the main count is correct,
then tomorrow will see a top form in wave (ii) and wave (iii) begin.

If the market declines to a lower high tomorrow,
that will signal wave (iii) down has begun.

GOLD

GOLD 1hr.

GOLD 4hr.

GOLD daily.

Wave ‘v’ of (iii) of [iii] is nearing completion this evening,
the minimum target for wave ‘v’ lies at 1716 where wave ‘iii’ made its low last week.
If this count is correct,
then wave (iv) will come in tomorrow and we will see a sideways trade for a few sessions,
before declining again into wave (v) of [iii].

Tomorrow;
watch for wave (iii) to complete with a break of 1716 at a minimum.
Wave (iv) must then hold below 1760 at the wave (i) low.

The main alternate on the 4hr chart shows an ending diagonal for wave ‘C’ of (4).
If that is correct,
then we are much closer to the final low of wave (4) than the main count suggests.
On balance,
I am now becoming more optimistic on gold for the longer term.
even if we do see another leg down towards 1600.

CRUDE OIL.

CRUDE OIL 1hr.

CRUDE OIL 4hr.

CRUDE OIL daily.

Crude oil is falling again this evening in wave (iii) of [i].
The price should fall below 58.60 again in wave (iii),
and that action would really begin to break the pattern in favor of a larger trend change now underway.

51.50 marks the major support below us now,
and if we break that level it will confirm that wave (5) down has finally begun.

Tomorrow;
This weeks focus is on the formation of five waves down in wave [i] green.

Watch for wave (iii) down to break 58.60 before a correction higher in wave (iv) begins.

S&P 500.

S&P 500 1hr

S&P 500 4hr

S&P 500 daily.

The size of the rally today in the S&P really has forced me to look seriously at the alternate count now.
This is the very same as the Dow again,
but the upper end of that alternate wave (c) is not that far away.
The upper trend line suggests a top at 4040 for that alternate pattern.

AS for the main bearish count.
Todays rally can be viewed as wave ‘ii’ pink,
with wave ‘iii’ expected tomorrow.
Wave ‘iii’ cannot be confirmed until we get a break of 3800 again.
But a sharp decline early tomorrow will favor the main count.

Tomorrow;
Watch for the wave (ii) high to hold at 3936.
Wave ‘iii’ of (iii) down must begin early tomorrow.

SILVER.

SILVER 1hr

SILVER 4hr.

SILVER daily.

Silver has yet to break 26.00 to complete wave [i] down.
I still favor this outcome here,
but to longer we see this divergence hold between gold and silver,
the more likely that silver will be leading the way higher into the next leg up rather than gold.

The price is lower today to begin wave (v) of [i],
but I want to see a sharper decline tomorrow to complete the pattern and rule out any possible alternate.

Tomorrow;
Wave [i] should complete tomorrow,
and wave [ii] is set to correct higher into Wednesdays session.
I think we will see a sharper decline in wave [iii] of ‘3’ of (C) by the end of this week.