Daily Elliott Wave Analysis – 03-04-19 – Did the market just crack?

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Hi everyone, I hope you made it out of the weekend in one piece.

I did, but only just!

I did my first mountain bike race in over a year yesterday, and boy was it painful.

It was sub zero, with a biting wind, rain, snow and mud up to my knees!

Glad I got out alive!

If you have a chance to read one thing this week,

I recommend John Hussmans latest update.

It is a great overview of where we sit now in this current market cycle.

And I think his view lines up with the most bearish outlook on the Elliott side also.

Here we go.

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EURUSD

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EURUSD took another stab at a decline in wave (iii) today.
The drop off Fridays high now looks to be in five waves and this si likely the tird wave within wave ‘i’ pink.
This weeks trade should create a new bearish impulse structure in waves ‘i’ and ‘ii’.
and when that completes,
It should offer a low risk opportunity to catch wave ‘iii’ of (iii) lower.

Tomorrow;
watch for wave ‘i’ to continue lower and create a five wave decline again.
A break of 1.1215 will confirm that wave (iii) down is underway.

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GBPUSD

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GBPUSD has fallen off the recent highs
and broken initial support at the the wave ‘b’ high.
The drop does not look very impulsive yet,
but the price is moving sideways today in a possible wave ‘ii’.
another move up to 1.3250 would create a three wave flat and a bearish lower high,
with the expectation that cable will fall into wave ‘iii’ of (i) this week.
Wave ‘iii’ of (i) should break 1.2966.

Tomorrow;
Watch for a lower high in wave ‘ii’ to complete below 1.3349.
wave ‘iii’ down should follow.

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USDJPY

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USDJPY is correcting off Fridays highs today.
this is either the beginning of wave ‘ii’,
or a small fourth wave correction within the wave ‘i’ advance.
another spike higher tomorrow will confirm the latter.
And then we should see wave ‘i’ hit a high at about 1.1240.
Wave ‘ii’ should correct to about 111.13 this week at that shoulder of support above the recent wave (i) high.
Once wave ‘ii’ is complete we should then see a rally in wave ‘iii’ of (iii) above 112.97.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘ii’ to find support at 111.13.

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DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS

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The drop below 25756 today invalidated the previous count and is an indication that advance in wave ‘B’ may now be complete.
The price has hit the previous wave ‘A’ high from last November
and now dropped sharply off it,
this is a clear rejection at resistance.
And we should sit up and take notice when that happens.

The job from here is simple,
we must see a complete 5/3 impulse structure lower in wave (i) and (ii).
This will set up a sharp drop into wave (iii).

I have labelled todays action as part of wave ‘iii’ of (i).
If this is correct,
then we are well along in the structure.
And wave (i) and (ii) could complete by the end of the week.

Tomorrow;
Watch for the wave ‘ii’ high at 26156 to hold and wave ‘iii’ to continue lower.
A break of that wave ‘ii’ high will rule out this count.

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GOLD

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Gold is now approaching the lower support at 1276 after another drop today.
The price is resting this evening at 1286,
this is the point where wave wave ‘c’ reaches 162% of wave ‘a’,
which is a common relationship between waves ‘a’ and ‘c’.

So,
we have a sharp three wave structure,
a clear support level below us,
and a nice Fib relationship between both waves in a three wave structure.
The odds are rising that we are close to a completed correction now.
A rally above 1300 again will signal that wave ‘i’ of (v) has begun.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘5’ of ‘c’ find a low at or above 1276.
The price may even turn higher into wave ‘i’ of (v) tomorrow.

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U.S CRUDE OIL

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Crude has recovered slightly from Fridays sharp selloff today.
The rise has been choppy and corrective looking so far.
And this evening saw another spike lower off the lower high.
It is now possible that an impulse wave is complete, but wee need confirmation tomorrow.

I have labelled the rise today as wave [ii] of the larger wave ‘1’ down.
A break of 55.57 will confirm wave [iii] down has begun.
If that occurs,
we are on for an impulse wave down to develop this week.

Tomorrow;
57.88 must hold for the bearish setup to remain intact.
Watch for wave [iii] to push lower again tomorrow.

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US 10 yr Treasuries.

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Wave (c) of [b] is now well underway off the recent highs last week.
It should trace out a five wave drop towards 120.50 over the coming week to complete the parger wave [b] green.

The price has dropped in five waves off 122.67 and is labelled wave ‘i’ pink.
Wave ‘ii’ is correcting higher this evening.
Wave ‘ii’ must hold below 122.67 and then turn lower again into wave ‘iii’ tomorrow.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘ii’ to complete,
a break below 121.47 again will confirm wave ‘iii’ down has begun.

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SILVER

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Silver has reached support at the previous fourth wave now,
and the decline has slowed today in a possible wave ‘5’ of ‘c’.
Wave ‘c’ seems to be tracing out a five wave structure
as shown on the short term chart.
Also, the 50% retracement level of wave (i) comes in at 15.03.
and wave ‘c’ has reached the 162% extension of ‘a’.

The evidence is lining up in favor of wave (ii) being near to completion.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘c’ of (ii) to hit a final low tomorrow.
A turn higher above 15.50 this week will signal that wave (iii) up has begun.

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S&P 500.

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The S&P dropped very impulsively today
and broke the low of the previous triangle wave ‘iv’ at 2780.
I have labelled this drop as wave ‘i’ of (i).

The price is recovering this evening in wave ‘ii’ pink.
wave ‘ii’ must complete below 2816.64, the wave ‘v’ high from last Friday.

Todays drop has not confirmed the turn into wave ‘C’,
but it is a good first step!
The possibility being that wave ‘B’ is now complete and a large degree wave ‘C’ is now underway
which could carry us down to 2100 with relative ease.
We should look for a clear five waves down this week to confirm this view.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘ii’ t complete below 2816 and wave ‘iii’ down to begin.

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