Good evening to you all,

the Lord’s blessings to you all tonight.

Its a new week, what could possibly go wrong eh, we will soon see.

EURUSD.

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

Todays trade ended up off the lows and so far we are still holding a higher low above 1.1106.
As long as 1.1106 holds then the main count is valid.
But we will need to see a rally back above 1.1300 pretty soon to confirm this count.

I have shown a possible short term alternate count for wave [v] this evening.
The price contraction over the last few sessions may be a fourth wave triangle within wave [v],
and wave (v) of [v] will drop back below 1.1106 by midweek to confirm this count.

Both scenarios are calling for this low in wave ‘C’ to be done with soon.
And then wave ‘D’ is expected to rally again in three waves towards 1.20

Tomorrow;
Watch for 1.1106 to hold and wave ‘iii’ of (c) to rally back above 1.1300 to confirm the main count.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1hr.

GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

There is a similar situation developing in cable this evening.
The price has moved sideways over the last few days and it is possible to view this as a corrective structure to the upside.
If that is the case,
then wave (c) of [ii] can still fall once more to complete a larger five wave pattern in wave (c) which started off the wave (b) high.
A break of 1.3300 again will favor this view.

AS for the main count.
A break of 1.3500 again will signal wave ‘iii’ of (i) is underway.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘iii’ of (c) to push higher again and break 1.3500.

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 4hr.

USDJPY daily.

USDJPY is not moving according to the short term pattern today,
and because of that I am looking at a possible alternate for that wave ‘4’ in red again.

If we look at the alternate count for wave ‘4’;
The price range has continued to contract in general over the last month,
so it is possible that we are looking at a triangle in wave ‘4’,
rather than the simple three wave pattern on the main count.

In both counts on the short term chart,
the price must hold above 114.40,
this level is currently labelled wave [ii] green.
A rally back above 115.77 again will favor the main count.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘iii’ of (i) to push higher and trace out a five wave pattern in wave (i) over the coming few sessions.
114.40 must hold.

As for the alternate count in wave ‘4’,
there is very little difference in outcome from the main count.
Both setups are calling for a large rally to begin into wave ‘5’.

DOW JONES.

DOW 1hr.

DOW 4hr

DOW daily.

The market is pretty flat today even after all the hullabaloo over the weekend when leaders agreed to throw Russian banks out of swift.

It may be the case that people are still trying to figure out what the heck is going on here.
And who owes what to whom!
It is pretty simple in my mind,
payments blocked are revenues lost,
There will be pain somewhere in the financial markets soon if this situation continues to go south.

As for the short term count.
There is no confirming price action yet to signal that wave (ii) is done and wave (iii) of [iii] has begun.
So I will have to wait and see if we get a drop back below 33,000 again to signal a shift towards wave (iii) is underway.

As for the larger picture on the 4hr chart.
We still only have three waves down off the recent all time highs.
If the main count is correct here,
then this week should begin an extension lower in wave (iii) of [iii].

Tomorrow;
Watch for the high at wave (ii) to hold at 34097.
Wave (iii) of [iii] should begin soon if this count is correct,
so watch for a sharp drop below 33000 again tomorrow to signal wave (iii) is underway.

A break of 32230 again this week will favor the bearish count.

GOLD

GOLD 1hr.

GOLD 4hr.

GOLD daily.

Gold is holding in a corrective formation this evening and the main count in wave (b) holds.
The fact that the price is still grinding sideways today,
this leads me to look at a slightly different pattern for wave (b).
A possible contracting triangle is in play here as shown.
this pattern will allow for a slow trade for another day or so as the triangle completes.
and then wave (c) of [ii] should fall again by the end of the week to complete three waves down into wave [ii].
The likely target in this scenario is still in the area of 1850 again.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (b) to continue sideways and complete a triangle near 1910 as shown.
A break of 1929 will rule out the triangle scenario.

CRUDE OIL.

CRUDE OIL 1hr.

CRUDE OIL 4hr.

CRUDE OIL daily.

Another day of wild moves in crude.
The market has not broken out of the possible 1,2, downside setup yet,
so as far as I can see this is still in play here.

It is notable that a series of big events like war and international financial isolation for Russia
does not produce the huge dislocation in price that everyone spoke about on tv last week.
In fact this market seems oblivious to these facts today!

This is in no way a confirmation of my views here,
but I do think the ‘non event’ is noteworthy.
And maybe,
just maybe,
oil is severely overbought at this point in the pattern?
And a large degree turn around is not so out of the question after all.

Tomorrow;
Watch for the price to continue to step lower as a possible wave ‘3’ down builds.
A break below 90.00 again will signal wave ‘3’ is underway.
And a small impulsive lower high will be at this point in the pattern will signal wave [i] and [ii] of ‘3’ is in play.

S&P 500.

S&P 500 1hr

S&P 500 4hr

S&P 500 daily.

It is getting harder to call wave (ii) a complete pattern this evening.
At a stretch I can see a possible running flat wave ‘b’,
followed by a very slight new high in wave ‘c’ of (ii) today.
A sharp decline from this point will be a good signa that wave (ii) is in fact topping out.
And if we see a break of 4200 again that should be enough to consider wave ‘i’ of (iii) as underway.

If we see a continued sideways pattern build over the coming days,
that will signal wave (ii) is forming a larger complex pattern.
So I’m afraid it is a wait and see moment for the S&P.

Tomorrow;
watch for wave ‘i’ of (iii) to fall in five waves a break the 4200 level again.

SILVER.

SILVER 1hr

SILVER 4hr.

SILVER daily.

The pattern is silver is solid as a [i] [ii] downside impulse wave this evening.
The price is holding a lower high below wave [ii] after todays trade.
There is a reasonable chance that we have a series of 1,2 waves now in place off the wave ‘B’ high.
If we see a drop back below 23.80 again and an acceleration lower,
that will signal wave (iii) of [iii] is underway.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave [ii] to hold at 24.67.
Wave [iii] down will begin with a break of 23.80.