Hi there everyone.
EURUSD.
EURUSD 1hr.
EURUSD 4hr.
EURUSD daily.
EURUSD reached towards the next target level at the previous fourth wave early today.
The price did not quite make it though,
The high of the session came in at 1.1052, and we saw a sharp drop off that level again.
It is possible that wave (ii) is now complete after a three wave rally into todays high.
So now I will begin to turn my focus to the downside again into a possible third wave.
The alternate count is still viable
but only if we see an impulsive break of resistance early next week.
Monday;
A five wave decline off todays high will signal wave ‘i’ of (iii) is underway.
Watch for wave ‘i’ to push below 1.0855 again.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD 1hr.
GBPUSD 4hr.
GBPUSD daily.
I want to concentrate on the 4hr chart in GBPUSD today.
The action off the wave (i) low is most definitely not a completed corrective pattern.
I cannot read a clear three wave corrective pattern in that action in wave (ii).
The price has whipsawed around over the last few weeks without making much ground at all.
This action is very corrective in nature.
And this suggests that wave (ii) is still underway.
The price did break the wave (i) low again,
but this could well be as part of wave ‘b’ of (ii) in an expanded flat correction.
In that case I would still expect to see a final rally in wave ‘c’,
back up towards 1.3287 again to complete either a running flat or expanded flat.
And then we can look for a decline in wave (iii) to begin.
That will be the focus next week for cable.
Lets see if the price action clears up.
USDJPY.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY daily.
I have to conceed defeat in USDJPY after todays bloodbath!
The price fell right through support and ruled out the previous bullish count.
The only way that I can make sense of this action now,
is that the multi year triangle that I have been working with on the daily chart is still on going.
Th recent high is now the top of wave (D).
And the decline off that high is viewed as the first leg down in wave (E).
Wave (E) must complete above 104.46.
So it looks like we have another three wave pattern left to complete before looking higher for the long term.
Monday;
Wave ‘A’ should complete soon.
And wave ‘B’ of (E) should then rally in three waves off the final low in wave ‘A’.
Wave ‘B’ should begin next week.
DOW JONES.
DOW 1hr.
DOW 4hr
DOW daily.
The Stock market is relentless to the downside this week.
Even a complete perma bear like myself is surprised at how quick the market destroyed value this week!
But even I know that a decline like this will have a dead cat bounce to come.
And that is exactly where I am looking next week.
Wave [v] of ‘1’ seems to have a five wave pattern now in place at the lows of the session.
So I am looking for wave ‘2’ to begin soon off those lows.
Wave ‘2’ should rally back towards the 27500 region.
A 50% retracement will carry us back to 27100 or so.
Monday;
watch for wave [a] of ‘2’ to push back up to 26000 again.
This corrective rally should begin early next week.
GOLD
GOLD 1hr.
GOLD 4hr.
GOLD daily.
Gold is down hard today,
but we are by no means out of this bull run in my view.
There is a few ways to look at this action in terms of a developing wave ‘3’ up.
And I will go into them in much more detail in the weekend video this week.
I you look at the daily chart you can see that that the recent high is either,
the top of wave ‘3’ red now complete,
and if so we are now moving lower in wave ‘4’ red.
Or;
we can view the recent top as only the first leg up within wave [iii] of ‘3’ red.
And in this case,
we will see a quick reversal over the coming week which will resume the rally in wave (iii) of [iii] of ‘3’.
Now that rally has real potential.
Monday;
firstly I will concentrate on the wave ‘4’ correction idea.
Wave [a] of ‘4’ should be close to completion after this weeks three wave decline.
I expect to see at least a rally in wave [b] of ‘4’ over the coming weeks which should carry us back up to the 1650 level again.
Watch for wave [b] to begin next week.
CRUDE OIL.
CRUDE OIL 1hr.
CRUDE OIL 4hr.
CRUDE OIL daily.
After another brutal week for crude oil,
I think we are nearing the lows of wave ‘iii’ of (iii) now.
We should see a corrective recovery over the coming week inw ave ‘iv’ of (iii).
And then another decline in wave ‘v’ of (iii).
Alltogether the action over the next few weeks should get a little move choppy and sideways in nature.
As we see the completion of a series of third and fourth waves.
Monday;
watch for a three wave rally to begin in wave ‘iv’ pink.
This should push back up towards the 47.00 area by mid week.
S&P 500.
S&P 500 1hr
S&P 500 4hr
S&P 500 daily.
If you look at the 4hr chart you can see that the previous wave ‘4’ in blue lies at 2853.
This level is key in terms of the long term count.
If that level breaks,
then we can be very confident that a long term bear market is underway.
Todays low reached 2854.6!
The market bounced off that level and we are holding above the lows as we reach the close this evening.
So, the wider market also views this level as important!
A break of this support will likely be the beginning of wave ‘3’ down.
Monday;
I am looking for wave ‘2’ to start next week.
As with the DOW,
we are likely to see a pretty powerful rally off the low of wave ‘1’.
But this rally should prove corrective and in three waves.
Watch for wave [a] pf ‘2’ to begin next week.
SILVER.
SILVER 1hr
SILVER 4hr.
SILVER daily.
Silver has been pummeled this week and it has forced a complete rethink of the wave count on all time frames.
I will go into this in more detail in the video tomorrow,
but in short,
I do not think this rally is any way near over after this weeks sharp declines.
The main wave count I am looking at now is best viewed on the Daily chart.
The steps higher off the lows in 2018 are now viewed as a series of 1,2 waves at a larger degree.
This rally should continue in wave ‘3’ of (3) over the coming months.
But for now we have to clear out a correction in wave ‘2’ red.
On the 4hr chart you can see that wave ‘2’ red is following a three wave pattern.
With the sharp decline off the high labelled wave [c] of ‘2’.
Monday;
Watch for wave ‘2’ to complete over the coming week.
We are already near to a five wave decline in wave [c] now.
A bounce higher off that lower trendline will signal that wave ‘2’ is done.
And then I will begin to look higher again into wave ‘3’.
U.S 10YR.
US 10YR 1hr.
US 10YR 4hr.
US 10YR daily.
The rally in Bonds looks overextended as heck now!
the price is holding below the resistance high at 135.47 for now.
But we do not have any impulsive decline off that high to work with yet.
That is what I am focused on next week,
but resistance at 135.47 must hold from here.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘C’ to top out and return lower again into wave [i].