Good evening to you all, and may the Lord bless you all tonight.

Tonights video for you.

The last 21 times Nasdaq had an intraday reversal of +5% happened during brutal bear markets.

David Rosenberg

@EconguyRosie

Is the American consumer really in great shape? Real personal disposable incomes are down an epic 10% YoY. Without the savings rate drawn-down to an 8-year low, real spending would have sunk 0.5% in January.

EURUSD.

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EURUSD daily.

The price has traced out three waves up off the low at wave (b) so far.
The wave count calls for a rally in five waves over the next few days to break out above the wave (a) high at 1.1495.
This will complete an expanded flat correction in wave [iv].
And then I will be looking lower again into wave [v] of ‘C’.
Hopefully we can put an end to this never ending wave (D) over the next 2 weeks.

Monday;
WAtch for wave ‘iii’ of (c) to continue higher.
the low of wave (b) must hold at 1.1106.

GBPUSD

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GBPUSD daily.

A ‘i’ ‘ii’ pattern is underway off that wave [ii] low this evening.
I am looking for a five wave rally over the coming few sessions in wave (i) as shown.
And if we see a break above the wave (b) high at 1.3642 again that will signal the larger wave [iii] of ‘5’ is underway.

Monday;
watch for wave (i) to continue higher in five waves.
The low at wave [ii] of 1.3274 must hold.

USDJPY.

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USDJPY daily.

Funny enough I am looking at a rally in USDJPY forming also these days.
We have a possible wave [ii] low now in place at 114.39.
The price has rallied in five waves into todays high.
And this should lead to a higher low in wave ‘ii’ by Monday evening.
As long as the wave [ii] low holds early next week,
then I think we can expect a further rally into wave (i) to break above 116.356 at a minimum.

Monday;
Watch for wave ‘ii’ to form a higher low above 114.39.
Wave ‘iii’ of (i) should then turn higher again.

DOW JONES.

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After a powerful rally today again I am now switching the count to shown a (i) (ii) impulse wave lower off the wave [ii] high.
The price pattern is still pretty solid in this scenario.
and this count does suggest a new decline phase will emerge next week into wave (iii) of [iii].
If we see a break below 32240 again that will be a good sign that wave (iii) is underway.

As I mentioned in the video,
The overall pattern off the high is still in three waves and has filled a trend channel at this weeks lows.
so I cant discount the idea that this is just a correction off the high.
We will see soon enough if that remains a possibility.

Monday;
Watch for wave (ii) to hold in the area of this 50% retracement.
The market should fall again on Monday to signal wave (iii) down has begun.

GOLD

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I am looking at a possible three wave recovery in wave (b) now underway.
This pattern suggests wave ‘c’ of (b) will push back into the 1930 area to complete that lower high.
and then wave (c) should fall again towards the middle of next week in wave (c) as shown.
A three wave decline to forma higher low out of the triangle wave (4) will be as bullish a signal that we could possibly hope for now.
And that will be the strongest indication that wave (5) up is about to begin.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (b) to complete a three wave recovery in the trend channel.
I will be looking for wave (c) down to begin by late Tuesday.

CRUDE OIL.

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CRUDE OIL daily.

I know most people think I am just stabbing in the dark here regarding a major decline in the oil market!
Its fun to be a contrarian usually,
but sometimes it just darn painful!

I discussed the longer term weekly chart in the video this evening.
And I think the pattern is quite clear here.
We have a huge expanded flat correction in wave ‘b’ in black.

This will be follower by a wicked decline into wave ‘c’ over the coming years.
And I do think this next leg down is coming sooner rather than later.

Now,
the short term pattern has been frustrating for sure.
But I do have to ask the question why this big decline this week when we now see one of the big oil producing nations
on the verge of being locked out of the oil market.

My answer is because this market is topping and nothing else!

Of course I need a major follow through to the downside to be proved right on this,
time will tell.

Monday;
Watch for wave [ii] of ‘3’ to complete another lower high below 95.00.
Wave [iii] down will be confirmed with a decline below 87.50.

S&P 500.

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S&P 500 daily.

A three wave pattern to the upside is now in place for wave (ii).
And the market has retraced back above the 50% level for the previous wave (i) decline.
Now the question is this,
will the retracement halt at the current levels,
and then a sharp reversal begin on Monday to usher in wave (iii) of [iii] to the downside.
That is what the short term pattern is calling for here.

Monday;
Watch for wave ‘i’ of (iii) to drop back towards 4220 again in five waves.

SILVER.

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SILVER daily.

I am looking at a possible [i] [ii] pattern in silver this evening also.
The price is now back to where we started the week.
And the decline off this weeks high is impulsive looking for sure.
This bearish impulse pattern must complete soon at wave [ii] with a break of 24.50.
And wave [iii] down will be confirmed with a break of 23,80 again.

Monday;
Watch for wave (c) of [ii] to complete a three wave correction at 24.50 again.
Wave [iii] down should begin soon after that.