Good evening to one and all.

The Lord’s Blessing’s to you all again tonight.

Just to note that I may struggle to get an update out as usual tomorrow evening, we have a family occasion tomorrow, and as you all know, these things can go on for a while!

If I miss the update tomorrow night, I will get it out on Saturday for sure.

Thanks for your understanding.

PIMCO’s Columbia Property Trust defaults on $1.7B of office loans

https://twitter.com/bullwavesreal

EURUSD.

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EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

I am taking a different view this evening after staring at the pattern and scratching my head through out todays trade!
The action this week has continued to veer off the path which I was following.
So today I needed to find an answer for the continued declines.

I have shown a new count for wave (a) down this evening.
It involves a straight forward five wave decline overall.
But wave ‘v’ of (a) involves a possible ending diagonal pattern.

This idea definitely explains the slow and corrective looking decline that has been ongoing this week.
If this count is correct,
then we will see yet one more decline towards 1.0520 again as wave ‘5’ of ‘v’ of (a) closes out tomorrow.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘v’ to complete with one more new low near the 1.0520 level.
Once the pattern in wave (a) is done,
then I will look higher into wave (b) early next week.

GBPUSD

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GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

Todays action is not the most convincing wave ‘iii’ start that I ever saw!
But,
the main pattern is solid up until the end of wave ‘ii’ earlier this week.
The overall pattern is still pointing to a third wave decline in wave ‘iii’ of (iii) coming our way.
But so far we have not seen a strong move lower to signal that the decline is underway.
If the price drops back below the wave ‘i’ low at 1.1914 again tomorrow,
that will favor the bearish count.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘iii’ to begin to make progress lower to confirm he short term pattern.
the wave ‘ii’ high at 1.2149 must hold now as wave ‘iii’ develops.

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

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USDJPY daily.

USDJPY is another market that is stuck in a correction that just seems to drag on forever.
I am sticking with the wave ‘4’ of ‘iii’ idea from last night.
but there is a possibility that wave ‘4’ is going to drop again to hit 133.90 and complete a larger corrective pattern.
I can’t decide which is correct here yet.
If the market turns higher overnight,
then we are back on track for wave ‘5’ of ‘iii’ again.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘4’ to clear up it’s pattern.
Wave ‘5’ of ‘iii’ is expected to continue higher towards 137.00 as shown.

DOW JONES.

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DOW daily.

The Dow punched to a new low today and broke the previous wave ‘b’ low at 32937 again.
The fact that the internal wave ‘b’ level broke before turning higher gives this wave count a probability boost,
and now I am more confident that wave (ii) is complete,
and wave (iii) is underway.

We do have a five wave decline in place today after reaching that new low at 32797.
So I am calling wave ‘i’ pink complete at this low.
The rebound off the low is also suggesting that wave ‘ii’ of (iii) is underway also.
And I am suggesting a target for wave ‘iii’ at 33660 at the 50% retracement level.
A three wave retracement to that target can be complete in a couple of sessions,
so we are quickly moving to the edge of that Elliott wave cliff,
where the market can plunge into wave ‘iii’ of (iii) of [iii] of ‘3’.
If that happens,
I think it will be a day to remember on wall st!

Tomorrow;
Lets deal with the next correction higher into wave ‘ii’ for the next few sessions.
Watch for wave ‘ii’ to trace out a three wave pattern higher and complete near 33660 early next week as shown.

GOLD

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GOLD daily.

Gold did break the previous wave (a) low at 1818 today and because of that I have changed the expected patern for wave (b) now.
The only pattern that fits here is an expanded flat correction.
Although I admit,
the run higher in wave ‘a’ of (ii) is better viewed as five waves rather than three as you would expect in a flat pattern.
the general corrective look of the decline into todays lows suggests that we will see another rally to compelte wave (b).
And wave ‘c’ of (b) is expected to top out near the 1860 level now.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘c’ of (b) to continue higher in five waves.
The minimum target for wave ‘c’ lies at 1847 at the wave ‘a’ high.

CRUDE OIL.

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CRUDE OIL daily.

Crude oil has really pushed the limits of the main wave count into todays lows.
I think the balance of probability between the two main counts here is only 60/40 in favor of the operating wave count.
I just can’t rule out that alternate count at all now.
And even in the alternate case,
we would expect a three wave rally in wave (ii) over the next few days.
So the pattern that develops from todays lows will decide between the two main wave counts now.

Tomorrow;
Wave (iii) of [c] should make easy progress to break above 81.00 if that count is correct.
Watch for wave ‘i’ of (iii) to break 77.50.

S&P 500.

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S&P 500 daily.

The S&P has not made the progress that I expected in wave ‘i’ today,
but that does not invalidate the pattern yet.
We do have five waves down in place for wave ‘i’ at the lows.
And the bounce off that today is suggesting wave ‘ii’ is now in play.
That spike higher off the lows is labelled wave ‘a’ of ‘ii’.
With wave ‘b’ and ‘c’ left to complete three waves up as shown.

When wave ‘ii’ completes,
then thinkgs will get very interesting.
Because the next logical step is for wave ‘ii’ of (i) of [iii] to turn lower and accelerate towards 3700 at a minimum.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘ii’ of (i) to correct higher in three waves with a top in the area of 4050 again.
Wave ‘ii’ should take us into Monday evening to close out.

SILVER.

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SILVER daily.

As each day goes on the target for wave [b] gets ower and lower as this correction gets shallower.
Wave (b) has almost made a double bottom with the wave [a] low at 21.16.
Wave (c) is still expected to turn higher tomorrow,
but I can only suggest wave (c) will top out with a break of 21.96 now.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (b) to find an early low in tomorrows session.
A push back above 21.50 again will signal wave (c) is underway.