Hi there.
EURUSD.
EURUSD 1hr.
EURUSD 4hr.
EURUSD daily.
The updates for EURUSD are getting boring these days!
Another day with zero change in the outlook,
apart from another possible bottoming pattern in the short term.
The price action is flat today,
but there was nothing to go on yet to the upside.
So I will just have to be patient until we do see some upside action develop.
Tomorrow;
Wave (ii) is beckoning,
so lets see if the last trading day of the week will bring a small higher low to work with.
GBPUSD
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GBPUSD daily.
It is a very similar story in cable this evening also.
The price dipped below the 1.2871 level again.
This ruled out the idea of an extended wave ‘c’ off the previous low.
But I do believe that this low is still best viewed as a ‘b’ wave.
The action in wave ‘b’ now looks like a triple three complex correction.
These lows are creating the final move within wave ‘b’ and this will give way to a rally in wave ‘c’.
But as with EURUSD,
the turn higher is taking its time.
Tomorrow;
Lets see if support will hold the price and allow wave ‘c’ to begin.
Only a break of 1.3069 can confirm that wave ‘c’ has begun.
USDJPY.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY daily.
At least USDJPY is going according to plan.
Wave (iii) seems to be tracing out a five wave internal pattern now.
And the highs of the session today have reached towards the target zone`.
The price is faltering this evening.
but there is a little more to go before hitting the 162% Fib level at 112.59.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘v’ of (iii) to complete at or near 112.59.
We should see a sideways correction then begin in wave (iv) over the next few days.
DOW JONES.
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DOW daily.
The downside gained control for about an hour this afternoon,
and that action looked promising.
But the price did not even reach the previous fourth wave low at 28890,
before the bottom came in.
The price has now regained about 50% of the loss today
and we have a clear overlap of the previous low again this evening.
In terms of an impulse move lower off the high,
this action is not looking promising right now.
Unless we see a sustained selloff which begins to take out the previous lows,
I will just have to hold off on getting too bearish yet!
Tomorrow;
so far this action off the high can be viewed as corrective and is holding within a trend channel.
If we see a break down again tomorrow and decline below initial support,
that could prove promising.
GOLD
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Gold finally pushed above 1611 today in wave ‘i’ pink.
The rally in wave ‘i’ now looks close to a completed five wave move off the wave (iv) low.
Todays high has reached 1623 so far,
So I think we can start to look for a correction off these highs to begin soon in wave ‘ii’.
1591 should offer support to wave ‘ii’.
When the low of wave ‘ii’ is complete,
then we will have a bullish impulse wave in place.
And at that point we should see an impressive rally in wave ‘iii’ of (v).
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘ii’ to begin with a drop below 1600 again.
CRUDE OIL.
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Crude has reached the previous fourth wave level at 54.35 today,
the high came in at 54.63.
The price is off a little this evening and is closing back below 54.00 again.
The pattern in wave [ii] has fulfilled the minimum expected retracement,
but it is too early to say if this rally in wave (c) of [ii] has topped out yet.
If we see a drop back below 51.00 again that will surely suggest that the next leg down has begun.
And that next leg will either be in wave (i) of [iii],
or wave (i) of [v] as per the alternate count.
Tomorrow;
Watch for a sign that wave (c) has completed with a drop back off the highs in an impulsive manner.
S&P 500.
S&P 500 1hr
S&P 500 4hr
S&P 500 daily.
The S&P is creating the same dilemma as the DOW today.
The price is off the highs today and we did see a spike lower also.
But the rebound has retraced much of the decline.
The low of the session came in at about 3339 and change.
But I need to see a break of 3303 again
in order to break the upside bias that is in place off that January low at wave (iv).
Tomorrow;
watch for wave (i) down to continue and trace out a five wave decline over the coming days.
SILVER.
SILVER 1hr
SILVER 4hr.
SILVER daily.
Silver is consolidating the gains of the week now,
by tracing out a sideways holding pattern today.
This pattern is looking like a triangle within wave ‘iii’ up.
And this does suggest that wave ‘iii’ has more upside left.
Price should break above resistance at 18.85 again before completing a five wave rally and correcting in wave ‘iv’.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘iii’ to push higher again.
The price must hold above 18.34 in order for waev ‘iii’ to be in play.
U.S 10YR.
US 10YR 1hr.
US 10YR 4hr.
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Wave ‘c’ of (ii) did push higher today and has created a three wave pattern off the triangle low of wave ‘b’.
The price is holding below 131.89 so far,
although if the stock market does selloff in a sustained fashion over the coming week,
the knee jerk reaction to jump into bonds will likely get triggered again.
And then that top will be in danger.
Tomorrow;
The rise off wave (i) still looks like a three wave pattern,
so wave (ii) is a real possibility right now.
Watch for a turn lower in wave (iii) to begin soon with a break of 130.81.