Daily Elliott Wave Analysis – 02-19-19 – A crash in ‘C’ or ‘3’?

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Hi there everyone.
I am actually away from home now and for the next few days. The kids are off school, so we are visiting friends down south.

The weather is miserable, but you gotta live a little now and then!

Here we go.

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EURUSD

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We have a three wave rise in place off the wave ‘b’ low.
If this is a second wave correction,
then wave ‘ii’ is a double combination complex correction.
Wave ‘c’ has broken the wave ‘a’ high
and hit the upper trend channel line off the wave ‘b’ low.
So it looks like wave ‘ii’ is complete.

tomorrow;
Watch for a turn lower into wave ‘iii’ to begin with a break of 1.1258.

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GBPUSD

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Back with a bang today!

Cable went vertical today in a possible wave ‘c’ of (ii).
The price has popped above the 62% retracement level at 1.3040 this evening.
So if this is wave (ii),
then we need the price to turn lower tomorrow to rule out the alternate count.

Tomorrow;
This rally must stop,
and price must not break above 1.3218,
if it does, that will trigger the alternate count.

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USDJPY

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I have switched to a different version of the alternate count this evening.
I have shown the current decline as a three wave drop in wave (ii).
The 50% retracement of wave (i) lies at 109.85,
So wave ‘c’ of (ii) should drop into that level to complete a three wave correction.

Tomorrow;
watch for wave ‘c’ of (ii) to begin
and back towards the lower trendline at 109.85.

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DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS

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We are almost back at the resistance line of 26065 today after a subdued open to the week.
I have shown the alternate count on all three time frames.
It shows this evenings highs as wave ‘B’ of (4).
This alternate wave count allows for a new high to occur above 26065,
but this will be fully retraced in wave ‘C’ of (4),
And the target for wave ‘C’ of (4) lies at the lower trendline at 20500.
Wave ‘C’ may well overshoot to the downside also.

So we are now facing at least a drop in wave ‘C’
which should be in the region of a 5000 point decline.

If the wave ‘3’ of (3) scenario plays out,
We are facing a larger decline than that.

Tomorrow;
I am still open to the idea of 26065 holding and a drop in wave ‘3’ of (3) to begin.
But the alternate count is still a significant risk.
Watch for wave (i) down to begin for either interpretation
over the coming few days.

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GOLD

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Wave ‘i’ of (V) has rallied towards the upper trendline again today.
Todays rally has confirmed that wave (v) has begun.
but I expect we should see a correction in wave ‘ii’ begin this week
to form a further higher low above the rising trendline.

Tomorrow;
Wave (v) is likely to break 1365 to complete.
So we may have another week or so left in wave (V).
Watch for wave ‘i’ to complete and wave ‘ii’ to correct in three waves off the wave ‘i’ high.

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U.S CRUDE OIL

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Crude oil has dropped in three waves off the wave (iii) high.
This decline may have completed wave (iv) at todays lows.
I expect to see a rally in wave (v) of [iii] to break above 58.00 again.
In order for this bullish interpretation to remain valid,
price must hold above 53.48 as long as wave [iii] remains in force.

Tomorrow;
Watch for 55.75 to hold and wave (v) of [iii] to continue higher.

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US 10 yr Treasuries.

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Todays action has pretty much confirmed the alternate count.
So I have switched to that count on the short term chart.
You can see the completion of the triangle at 121.64 in five waves.
And the rise off that low is viewed as wave ‘i’ of (v).
Wave (v) will complete wave [c] and wave ‘2’.
So this is merely a postponement of the inevitable drop into wave ‘3’ down.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘iii’ to continue higher over the coming days.
A break of 122.56 will confirm wave (v).

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SILVER

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Silver ran higher in wave ‘5’ of ‘i’ today,
it would be better to see a break above 16.18 to confirm that wave (iii) has begun.
but for now we can assume as much.
Once wave ‘i’ completes we can expect a correction in wave ‘ii’.
The completion of wave ‘ii’ will create a bullish signal
and another opportunity to catch the rally in wave ‘iii’ of (iii).

Tomorrow;
15.48 should hold as wave ‘i’ and ‘ii’ complete.

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S&P 500.

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The S&P is flat today in what is labelled wave ‘v’ of [v] of ‘C’ of ‘2’.
I have not changed the preferred count,
but the alternate count is shown,
and this still suggests a drop into the 2100 area in wave ‘C’ of (4).
So either way,
this is a very high risk moment for equities.

Tomorrow;
If the price breaks 2814 that will trigger the alternate count.
Watch for wave ‘2’ to hold below that level and begin to drop in wave (i) of [i].

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