Good evening to one and all.

The Lord’s Blessing’s to you all again tonight.

Monday the 20th is a public holiday in the U.S so the markets will be closed and as a result, I will be closed also, so Tuesday will be the first update next week.

Change In #Liquidity vs the #market May be worth paying attention to if you are in the #softlanding camp.

Just as the lagging and coincident indicators rose 0.2% in January to new highs and are all the focus, the index of leading indicators dropped 0.3% and has declined now for 10 straight months, a 100% iron-clad recession forecaster.

https://twitter.com/bullwavesreal

EURUSD.

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

Monday is a market holiday in the US,
so there will not be much action to speak of and because of that I will not be updating on Monday night.

Even though the pattern was going well this week,
I have switched to the alternate count today after a sharp spike rally to retrace much of recent decline.
I have labeled the recent decline as a three wave pattern in wave ‘b’.
Wave ‘b’ pink is labeled as an expanded flat correction now,
and in this scenario,
the bounce today is the beginning of wave ‘c’ of ‘b’.
Wave ‘b’ is now expected to complete with a break of the wave ‘a’ high at 1.0803 to complete an expanded flat correction.

Next week;
Watch for wave ‘c’ of ‘b’ to continue higher in five waves to complete with a break of 1.0803.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1hr.

GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

Five waves down completed today in wave ‘i’ of (iii),
and the low of the session broke the wave (i) low at 1.1960.
This level was the preferred target for wave ‘i’.

The price has bounced convincingly off that wave ‘i’ low today and that suggests wave ‘ii’ is now underway.
Wave ‘ii’ of (iii) is now underway.
A three wave correction higher in wave ‘ii’ has an initial target at the 50% replacement level of wave ‘i’ at 1.2090 again.

Next week;
Wave ‘ii’ is now in play and that should trace out a clear three wave patterns higher as shown.
Watch for a top in the area of 1.2090.

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 4hr.

USDJPY daily.

Wave ‘3’ of ‘iii’ did not reach the highs I expected it to,
but that does not rule out this pattern either.
The top today did break above the previous wave [iv] high at 134.80 again,
so that keeps the bullish pattern in play here.

If the top of wave ‘3’ is now in,
then we should see a three wave corrective decline in wave ‘4’ next week.
I want to see the high at wave ‘1’ at 132.90 hold as wave ‘4’ completes.
And as long as that high remains un touched,
then this wave count is safe.

Next week;
Watch for wave ‘4’ to trace out a three wave sideways correction that completes above the wave ‘1’ high at 13290.
Wave ‘5’ of ‘iii’ should turn higher again by midweek next week.

DOW JONES.

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DOW 4hr

DOW daily.

The Market is holding above the previous wave ‘4’ low at 33510 today but I will say the action is looking corrective off that low.
So this may only be a consolidation above that support,
before turning back lower and breaking through it in wave ‘3’ of ‘i’ as shown.
that is the view I am taking at the moment.
This whole bearish count of mine can be confirmed next week with one solid break down towards 33000 again.
I still want to see a five wave pattern lower in wave ‘i’ next week,
and we are not there yet.
But I think we are close to turning this juggernaut back into an impulsive decline scenario again.

Next week;
Watch for wave ‘i’ to continue lower to break the 33000 level with a solid five wave decline in wave ‘i’ pink.

If the price rallies back above 34000 again then I will have to rethink think this short term pattern again.

GOLD

GOLD 1hr.

GOLD 4hr.

GOLD daily.

I think today’s rally back above 1840 again is a good signal that wave ‘c’ of (a) is now complete at this weeks lows.
1818 now becomes support for the developing three wave rallies up in wave (b) over the coming weeks.
And at the moment I think then we should expect a rally back into 1900 to complete wave (b).
That will bring the price back into the 50% replacement level of wave (a).

Next week;
watch for wave ‘c’ to hold at 1818 as the initial higher low develops above wave (a).
Wave ‘a’ of (b) should trace out at least a three wave pattern higher before the end of next week.

CRUDE OIL.

CRUDE OIL 1hr.

CRUDE OIL 4hr.

CRUDE OIL daily.

Today s decline has invalidated the previous wave count now.
But I have not thrown out the baby with the bathwater just yet.

I am looking at a larger version of the previous count for waves (i) and (ii) now.
Three waves down have now completed off this weeks high at wave (i).
And I am looking for a low to form now in wave (ii) as shown.
(Todays) lows hit the 62% replacement level of wave (i).
And wave (iii) up is expected to rally over the next week to break above 82.60 again at the wave [a] high.

Next week;
Watch for wave (ii) to hold above 72.50 at the wave [b] lows.
Wave ‘i’ of (iii) should push higher towards the 79.00 level again early next week.

S&P 500.

S&P 500 1hr

S&P 500 4hr

S&P 500 daily.

The previous wave ‘iv’ lows is offering support in the S&P tonight as well.
4050 is proving a tough nut to crack here.
But I do think that if we see a solid break of that support level,
then the follow through into wave ‘i’ pink could be quite a sight to behold.

February has been a sideways to down month so far.
And there is serious weakness showing on the daily and 4hr charts now.
The Daily chart in particular shows a momentum reversal off a lower high peak
and volume levels that indicate complacency again.
I am looking for this wave ‘i’ decline to take over early next week and leave us in no doubt that a reversal is underway again.
So Tuesdays trade is looking particularly important now.

Next week;
Watch for wave ‘3’ of ‘i’ to break that wave ‘iv’ support at 4050 with a sharp move below it.
Wave ‘i’ down must resume early on Monday,
and wave ‘3’ of ‘i’ is the key to breaking the back of this stubborn wave [ii] correction.

SILVER.

SILVER 1hr

SILVER 4hr.

SILVER daily.

The pattern in silver has been working quite well this week.
A solid bounce off the lows in silver now suggests wave [a] is complete at the lows.
I am looking at a possible five wave advance in wave (a) of [b] now.
And the top this evening is labeled as wave ‘iii’ of (a),
with waves ‘iv’ and ‘v’ left to complete the rally over the coming few days.

Next week;
Watch for wave (a) to complete five waves up near 22.00 again by Tuesday evening.
I will then look for a three wave decline to take over in wave (b) by the middle of next week.