Good evening to you all, and may the Lord bless you all tonight.

I will not be updating tomorrow – friday – as I have a family occasion to go to.

I will be on the road on Monday, but I should be able to update Monday night as usual.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fed-repo-oracle-zoltan-poszar-explains-why-powell-must-crash-market

This is a good argument on zerohedge today, it looks like the fed has boxed itself into a corner and there is only one way out, and they do not have a choice!

I had a thought earlier today regarding all that is happening between the U.S and russia.

It seems that the U.S admin is facing a major crisis in terms of the economy, their local legitimacy and their international standing all at once!.

Hear me out.

Now the sars cov 2 virus pandemic is petering out across the world, and because of the return to a type of normality again, there is very little excuse to be pumping massive liquidity and fiscal stimulus anymore is there?

We all know that the western economy has been propped up for the last 2 yrs because of pandemic spending.

And now the punch bowl is gone.

Naturally this should lead to a big downward adjustment in gdp and therefore markets will take a hammering.

If only you could engineer a crises to allow you to keep spending like a drunken sailor??

Did somebody say WAR ??

A war would also be convenient in terms of solidifying the nation behind the government again and give cover to a massive spending splurge all at once.

So thats two votes in favor of this new crises.

Now what about all that noise regarding the 2020 election again and of course we have new revelations regarding the clinton campaigns shenanigans around the russiagate hoax back in 2016 – 2020.

Now we have the U.S admin poking the russian bear and just wishing they respond with a major invasion of the Ukraine.

It all seems a little too convenient in my mind………..

Just a thought.

EURUSD.

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

Todays trade was very hard to make any sense of to be honest!
There is a reasonable chance that waves (i) and (ii) of [c] are complete at this point.
And we should see a continued rally into wave (iii) over the coming days.
Wave (iii) is expected to break above the high of wave [a] at 1.1483 again at a minimum.

Tomorrow;
The low at wave [b] must continue to hold at 1.1280.
And if wave (iii) has begun already,
then wave (ii) must hold at 1.1323.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1hr.

GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

Cable did reach the minimum target for wave ‘c’ of (b) today.
The pattern is not ideal in wave ‘c’ as it does not easily count as a five wave pattern.
but as long as the price action continues to fit a three wave rally in wave (b),
then I think this larger pattern in wave [ii] is safe enough.
And wave (c) down will come our way later next week as shown.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘c’ of (b) to reach a top near the 1.3700 handle.
A break of 1.3748 will not invalidate this pattern only I think it will prolong the overall correction in wave [ii].

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 4hr.

USDJPY daily.

USDJPY has dropped in three waves off the top so far.
the current pattern is calling for more downside in wave ‘iii’ of (c) of [ii].
With the minimum target for wave (c) at 114.13.
So we are not there yet,
I would like to see a continued decline in wave ‘iii’ to break 114.50 by tomorrow.
That will allow some room for wave ‘iv’ to correct higher,
and then wave ‘v’ to complete the pattern by Monday evening.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (c) to continue lower into 114.00 to complete a three wave correction in wave [ii].

DOW JONES.

DOW 1hr.

DOW 4hr

DOW daily.

Todays action is still tracking with the larger correction in wave (ii) blue.
The market has traced out a three wave decline into wave ‘b’ of (ii).
And wave ‘c’ of (ii) is expected to rally back above 35150 again to complete wave (ii) as shown.

The alternate top for wave (ii) will only be confirmed if we see an extended decline to break below 33730 at the wave (b) triangle low.
At the moment I do not see this as a high probability,
but its worth keeping in mind.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘b’ to hold above 34300 at the wave (i) low.
Wave ‘c’ of (ii) should turn higher in five waves and break 35150.

GOLD

GOLD 1hr.

GOLD 4hr.

GOLD daily.

Despite the very positive week that gold has put in,
and despite my general bullish attitude in the long term on gold,
I do think we will see a pretty sharp reversal off this wave [i] high over the coming weeks.
And maybe wave [ii] can fall into the 1800 area again to complete that correction.
If we do see a three wave decline back towards 1800 again,
that will be a very good time to get on board for wave [iii] of ‘1’ of (5).

I do not have any secret knowledge that wave [i] is done at this point,
but I do see a pretty full pattern here.
So the next logical step is for a selloff to clear board before we launch into wave [iii].

Tomorrow;
Watch for a sign that wave [i] is done pretty soon.
A drop into 1844 again should be enough to confirm wave (a) of [ii] next week.

CRUDE OIL.

CRUDE OIL 1hr.

CRUDE OIL 4hr.

CRUDE OIL daily.

Three waves down off the top so far in crude.
So this is not enough to signal a top is in place for wave ‘5’ yet.
The decline phases are quite impulsive looking off that top,
and because of that I am still working on the idea that we have a series of 1,2 waves down no in play.
If this is correct,
then we will see a more sustained decline next week in wave (iii) of [iii].
I want to to see the high of the session at wave (ii) hold at 91.55 in order to stick with this bearish count in the short term.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (iii) down to begin to move lower again and break 87.50.
this will strengthen the idea of a change of trend now in play.

S&P 500.

S&P 500 1hr

S&P 500 4hr

S&P 500 daily.

Wave ‘b’ has formed a higher low above 4360 at the wave (i) low today.
A this moment the pattern in wave (ii) is moving along quite well.
Wave (ii) is tracing out a 5,3,5 zigzag pattern higher so far,
wave ‘a’ has a nice five wave pattern complete at 4490,
wave ‘b’ is a clear three wave decline off that level,
and wave ‘c’ should run higher to form a lower high below 4591 at the very upper end.
Ideally wave ‘c’ will break 4490 and then fall back immediately to begin wave (iii) down by Monday afternoon.

Tomorrow;
Five waves up in wave ‘c’ of (ii) should complete by early next week.
Once that wave is done,
we will have a series of 1,2, waves in place off the top.
and that will suggest a large acceleration down into wave (iii) of [iii] is getting close.

SILVER.

SILVER 1hr

SILVER 4hr.

SILVER daily.

The Short term count for silver is now nearing a 50/50 probability with the alternate count shown on the 4hr chart.
The alternate count views the whole sideways move sense last sept as a triangle in wave (B).
And the current lower high is wave ‘E’ of (B).
If that alternate count is correct,
then we will see a similar outcome for wave (C) over the coming months with a decline into the 18.00 area again.

As for the main count.
the price must hold below 24.70 in wave [ii].
Wave [iii] down should fall impulsively over the coming week to bring the larger count back into line.