Good evening to one and all.

The Lord’s Blessing’s to you all again tonight.

@MikaelSarwe

Where I disagree with the current equity market sentiment… monetary tightening takes time to run through the economy. My models still say later, deeper and longer recession…

https://twitter.com/bullwavesreal

EURUSD.

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EURUSD daily.

I am caught between two ideas here.
1;
wave ‘b’ is complete and wave ‘c’ is now tracing out a five wave decline as suggested.
In this scenario todays decline is wave ‘1’ of ‘c’.

2;
the decline off Tuesdays high is in three waves,
which suggests wave ‘b’ pink is still underway and wee will see another run up above 1.0803 to complete wave ‘b’,
and then wave ‘c’ will begin.

I will stick with the main count again tonight which suggests wave ‘b’ is complete and wave ‘c’ is about to track lower in five waves.
If the price breaks 1.08 again that will trigger the alternate count.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘c’ to trace out five waves down as shown.
Wave ‘c’ should begin to accelerate lower in the mid section of that five wave decline.
WAve ‘c’ should break the 1.05 level to complete this pattern.

GBPUSD

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Cable had a sharp decline today and is close to breaking the wave (i) low at 1.1960 again to confirm the larger pattern.
I have labelled this decline as wave ‘i’ of (iii),
and I am looking for a break of the wave (i) low at 1.1960 to signal that this next leg lower is underway.
If we do see a break of that wave (i) low this week,
then we should expect a correction higher begin in wave ‘ii’ to start next week.
The main thrust lower will occur in wave ‘iii’ of (iii) as shown.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘i’ to complete a five wave decline below support at 1.1960.

USDJPY.

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So far USDJPY is holding that impulsive pattern and the rally continues into a possible third wave as shown.
The price is coming close to that previous wave [iv] high at 134.80 now,
a break of that level will pretty much confirm the larger bullish pattern here for wave (iii) of [i].
But I think wave (iii) should continue higher than that resistance level.
I am looking at a target for wave ‘iii’ of (iii) at 137.50.
This is where wave ‘iii’ reaches 162% of wave ‘i’ pink.
So there is work to do here as this pattern continues.

Tomorrow.
Watch for wave ‘3’ of ‘iii’ to continue higher and complete five waves up with a break above the resistance level at 134.80.

DOW JONES.

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I am looking at a possible three wave correction to form a lower high again tonight.
The action today was pretty corrective looking,
and because of that I have labelled this as wave ‘2’ of ‘i’ of (iii) so far.

The top at wave (ii) must hold obviously.
And a five wave decline into wave ‘i’ of (iii) should continue as shown for the rest of this week

I would like to see this wave ‘i’ pink break the previous wave ‘b’ low at 32930 again.
If that happens,
I think that will be a solid signal that a larger move lower is building in wave (iii) blue.
If wave (iii) reaches 162% of wave (i) blue,
that gives us a possible target for wave (iii) below 31000 again.
We will see how that develops next week.

Tomorrow;
watch for wave ‘i’ of (iii) to trace out five waves down to break 33000 again.
this would be an ideal start to wave (iii) blue.
A break of 33500 again will signal wave ‘3’ of ‘i’ is underway.

GOLD

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Gold managed to break to a new low for the week and with that I am reverting back to the previous pattern for wave (a) again.
It is possible that wave ‘2’ of ‘c’ of (a) completed a running flat correction On Monday.
The action off that wave ‘2’ lower high suggests wave ‘3’ of ‘c’ is now underway.
In this scenario,
we should see continued declines back towards that 1800 level for the rest of this week.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘c’ to continue lower in five waves as shown.
The low of wave ‘1’ at 1852 should hold as wave ‘c’ continues.

CRUDE OIL.

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Crude has done very little today to confirm the new count for wave [c].
At the moment we have a small higher low in wave ‘ii’ pink to begin wave (iii).
As long as that wave (ii) low holds at 76.70,
then this wave count remains valid.
A break of that level will invalidate this count and I will have to go back to the drawing board for wave [c] again.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘iii’ of (iii) of [c] to turn higher and confirm this pattern.

S&P 500.

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The action in the S&P is also quite corrective looking to the upside today and with this I am considering another option for the short term count.

It is possible that wave ‘v’ of (c) completed as a truncated fifth wave.
These types of failures below a new high are not terribly common,
but it cannot be ruled out as a possibility to explain the action here.
If for no other reason,
the fifth wave failure results from exhaustion and that is reflected in the pattern not making a new high to complete.

That is a fitting description of this rally for sure.
almost four months to complete three waves up in wave [ii] green.
A wave [ii] rally with more overlaps that you can shake a stick at.
Exhausted is an understatement!

This idea should be confirmed or invalidated before the end of this week.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘i’ down to continue lower and trace out five waves down to signal that the top is finally in for wave [ii] green.

SILVER.

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SILVER daily.

I may be forced to look for another alternate count for wave [b] silver tomorrow if the price does not managed to turn higher into wave (c) as expected.
The price extended its decline in wave (b) today,
and this pattern for wave [b] green is now stretched to breaking point.
If the price declines again to a new low tomorrow,
that will invalidate this wave count for wave [b],
and suggest wave [c] of ‘A’ is already.

Tomorrow;
watch for wave (b) to hold at 21.42.
A break above 22.00 again will signal wave (c) is underway.