Hello there and welcome to this special St Valentines day edition of the nightly update.
Just kidding!
As a reminder,
Monday is a market holiday in the U.S,
so there won’t be an update on Monday night.
Here is the weekend video for your entertainment!
Lets get on with the show then, shall we.
EURUSD.
EURUSD 1hr.
EURUSD 4hr.
EURUSD daily.
It’s been a week of endless declines in EURUSD and the price broke through support at 1.0878.
I did not expect either wave count to get this low,
but I do think that next week will bring a reasonable rally in either wave (ii) or the alternate wave ‘C’.
This last decline in wave ‘v’ of (i) should be retraced in wave (ii),
so we will likely see a 250 pip rally at least.
Tuesday ;
Wave (i) needs to find its final low first.
Watch for this to occur with a higher low above 1.0878 again.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD 1hr.
GBPUSD 4hr.
GBPUSD daily.
Cable created a small three wave correction today,
but the price is rising off the low’s again this evening.
this rise should continue on Monday.
The structure in wave ‘c’ can still be viewed as a developing five wave pattern.
So I will expect this rally in wave ‘c’ to continue higher on Monday.
The target remains at the previous wave ‘a’ high of 1.3283.
And this should be reached by Tuesday evening all going well.
By the end of next week I will be looking lower again to begin wave (iii) down.
Tuesday ;
watch for price to push above 1.3072 and continue higher.
USDJPY.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY daily.
I have shown another possibility for wave ‘c’ of (ii) this evening.
The price drifted sideways throughout the day,
and the price range contracted again.
So there are two possibilities emerging.
Wave ‘b’ may be tracing out a triangle before the drop in wave ‘c’ begins.
Or,
Wave (i) might still be underway,
with this triangle actually forming wave ‘iv’ of (i).
A break above 110.13 on Mnday will confirm the alternate count.
Tuesday ;
Watch for wave ‘c’ of (ii) to continue below 109.51 and complete at about 109.15.
DOW JONES.
DOW 1hr.
DOW 4hr
DOW daily.
The DOW did not push higher into a fifth wave to complete wave ‘v’ today.
So it looks like we will have to wait until next week before any reasonable decline begins.
The price is drifting sideways again today.
I have shown two possibilities for this action also today.
This corrective move could be a small triangle within ‘v’.
and then the rally will resume next week to complete the pattern.
Or,
this could be a correction within wave ‘iv’ of (v) at one higher degree.
Either way you look at it,
the price should rally again early next week to complete a five wave pattern.
Wave ‘v’ should push up into the 29700 handle at a minimum to complete both interpretations.
Tuesday ;
Watch for wave (v) to continue higher towards that upper trend channel line.
Once that completes,
I will be looking lower again to begin wave (i) down.
GOLD
GOLD 1hr.
GOLD 4hr.
GOLD daily.
Gold reached above the 1576.55 again today which is a good sign in the short term.
This action points to a possibility that wave ‘i’ of (v) has begun.
A break above 1592 again should confirm wave ‘i’,
so that is where I will be looking on Monday.
If this short term count is correct,
then the price must hold above 1561 from now on.
The alternate count has been changed to show a larger wave ‘d’ and ‘e’ of (iv).
Tuesday ;
Watch for wave ‘i’ to push above 1592 again to confirm that wave (v) has begun.
CRUDE OIL.
CRUDE OIL 1hr.
CRUDE OIL 4hr.
CRUDE OIL daily.
Crude reached the short term target for wave [ii] or the alternate wave [iv] today.
The price broke above the high of wave ‘a’ at 52.28,
and then hit the upper trend channel line at 52.48 again.
This action completed a possible three wave correction now.
The price is falling off the highs again this evening,
so there is a chance that the next leg down is getting underway again.
We will have to see some follow through on Monday to confirm this view.
Tuesday ;
Watch for wave (i) of [iii] to begin with a decline back below 49.40 again.
The alternate count views this next decline as wave (i) of [v].
S&P 500.
S&P 500 1hr
S&P 500 4hr
S&P 500 daily.
The S&P is correcting off the recent new high now.
It is possible that the rally in wave ‘v’ of (v) is now done,
but I am allowing for another small push up to that upper trend line again in wave ‘v’.
If the pattern is finished now,
then next week should bring a reasonable decline back to the 3300 level again
at the previous fourth wave low.
If this decline traced out a five wave structure,
then I will get interested again in the possibility of a reversal at a larger degree.
Tuesday ;
Lets see if we get one last rally to meet the trend channel line before rolling over into wave (i).
SILVER.
SILVER 1hr
SILVER 4hr.
SILVER daily.
The price is moving higher today which raises the probability that wave ‘iii’ of (i) is now underway.
the price continues to carve out smaller higher lows over the last weeks.
And each time this happens,
it points a larger developing structure, possibly wave [iii] up.
Monday;
Watch for 17.37 to hold again as wave ‘iii’ gets going.
A break of that level will trigger the alternate count.
Wave ‘iii’ up will be confirmed with a break of 18.34.
U.S 10YR.
US 10YR 1hr.
US 10YR 4hr.
US 10YR daily.
Bonds are holding below 131.39 this evening,
and it seems like a three wave corrective structure is underway in wave ‘ii’ pink.
This structure should hold below 131.39 and turn lower early next week in order to stick with the bearish outlook.
Tuesday ;
I am still waiting for some confimring price action in this market
to point to a top in place.
So we need a sharp reversal next week to reinforce that idea.
A break of 128.52 in wave (iii) will do just that.
So that is the level to watch next week.
131.39 must hold at wave (ii).
Have a great weekend, and I will see you back here again on Tuesday evening.
God’s speed to you all.
enda.