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Hi everyone, its St Valentines day already!
Well tomorrow is Valentines day,
but my wife goes on night duty tomorrow,
so we will crack open a bottle of wine tonight instead!
So, the FED got a new head honcho today!
Jerome Powell took over the reigns of the FED just as we see the markets shift from the current bull market half cycle,
back down again in into the inevitable bear market half cycle.
I think he has been passed a poisoned chalice,
With record indebtedness in every sector of the economy.
He does not think so,
obviously.
Otherwise he would not touch the job with a 40ft barge pole.
The future will not be kind to Jerome Powell,
that much has been baked into the cake!
It begs the question though,
How will he deal with the first big bank failure?
When the FED is already tapped out on bailouts,
and taking big losses on its treasury portfolio.
This should be very interesting indeed!
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UPCOMING RISK EVENTS:
USD: CPI m/m, Retail Sales m/m, Crude Oil Inventories.
EUR: German Prelim GDP q/q, Flash GDP q/q.
GBP: n/a.
JPY: n/a.
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EURUSD
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[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: long term bearish
Wave Structure: Topping in wave [B] black.
Long term wave count: lower in wave [C] black.
EURUSD has continued its drift upwards today
with a break of 1.2313 triggering the alternate count.
The price pattern is still viewed as a possible wave 'ii' pink.
Which suggests that wave 'iii' should carry the price lower into key support at 1.1961, as shown on the 4hr chart.
The price must not break 1.2537 in this scenario.
The general thesis in EURUSD is shown on the 4hr chart,
The price is topping out in a very large wave [B]
And wave [C] will bring the pair below parity over the long term.
The top is a process and will take time to fully develop.
For tomorrow;
watch for a reversal off the upper trend channel line and the beginning of wave 'iii' pink.
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GBPUSD
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[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: short below parity in wave (5).
Wave Structure: continuing impulsive structure to the downside in wave (5)
Long term wave count: decline in wave (5) blue, below parity
Cable recovered in three waves into the trendline this evening.
The price has backed off a little so far,
But it has not declined in an impulsive fashion yet.
A break below 1.37.63 will confirm wave '3' grey has begun.
The price must not rise above 1.4066 in this wave count.
Tomorrow;
wave '3' grey should accelerate towards the lower trendline for the rest of the week,
1.3763 is the level to watch.
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USDJPY
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[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: LONG
Wave Structure: rally in wave [C]
Long term wave count: wave [C] is underway, upside to above 136.00
I have shown a possible alternate wave count tonight,
Wave (iv) green may have completed at the recent high of 110.47.
And the decline off that high could be an ending diagonal wave (v) green.
This wave count might explain the indecisive nature of the price action over the last 10 days.
A break of 110.78 will trigger this wave count.
I will be keeping this in mind.
Tomorrow;
the current wave count still calls for a rally in a possible wave 'c' of (iv).
The price is oversold in the short term so this rally should begin soon.
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DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS
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[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: market topping process completing
Wave Structure: Impulsive 5 wave structure, topping in an all time high.
Long term wave count: topping in wave (5)
After a relatively flat day in stocks today
we are no closer to confirming which of the short term counts is actually correct.
I have changed the alternate count to a larger degree five wave pattern to the downside in wave [i] green,
With a possible wave [ii] green underway.
This would form a larger degree lower high or right shoulder to the recent top.
A break of resistance at 25303 will confirm this count.
In the short term;
a break of 24764 will favor the alternate count.
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GOLD
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[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: Long to a new all time high above 1827.
Wave Structure: Impulse structure to a new high.
Long term wave count: wave (3) above 1666.
Today action has not cast any light on the state of the short term count.
The rise over the last few sessions still looks corrective.
this is due to the amount of overlapping highs and lows.
But the price is rising, and that is at least something to work with.
A break above 1334 will favor the bullish short term count,
While 1307 must hold from here.
For tomorrow;
I want to see some positive momentum develop in wave 'iii' pink
If not,
I will have to consider the possibility that the correction in wave [ii] green is still underway.
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U.S CRUDE OIL
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[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: topping in a large correction wave [4].
Wave Structure: Double combination higher in wave [4] red.
Long term wave count: wave [4] target $63 - $70
Crude declined today in a possible wave 'b' of an ongoing correction in wave 'iv' pink.
The low of the day reached 58.39,
And was followed by a pop in wave 'c' this evening.
Wave 'c' should continue into 60.61 again above wave 'a'.
That action will complete the larger wave 'iv' pink.
Following that,
A break below 58.07 will signal that wave 'v' has begun.
For tomorrow;
watch for rise in wave 'c' of 'iv' to 60.61.
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