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Hello everyone,
welcome back to a new week in the markets.
It was a quiet day across the markets,
So the operating wave counts are on track.
Some interesting survey data out from the New york FED today.
You can find the data HERE.
I have picked the two most interesting charts from our perspective.
The first question of the survey is,
Do you expect to be financially worse or better off next year.
heres the chart.
the data shows a population bellcurve which is skewed to the bullish side completely,
the bullish proportion of people, in blue, has risen to 45.65% in total.
The people who answered, "MUCH WORSE OFF"
have all but dissapeared for the the last year.
That group stands at 0.69% of respondents.
I'm afraid I am in that group!
The next chart is the expectations of higher stock prices next year.
Heres the chart.
44.9% of people asked, expect higher stock prices next year.
Don't be so sure about that, since when was the crowd correct about anything?
Down to the markets.
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UPCOMING RISK EVENTS:
USD: n/a.
EUR: n/a.
GBP: CPI y/y, PPI Input m/m, RPI y/y.
JPY: n/a.
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EURUSD
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[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: long term bearish
Wave Structure: Topping in wave [B] black.
Long term wave count: lower in wave [C] black.
Key support held so far today,
The wave count shows the rise off Fridays lows as wave 'iv' pink.
This wave may have completed at the high of the session.
If so,
Wave 'v' pink should carry the price below key support tomorrow.
The alternate count has not been ruled out yet either.
This count suggests a larger decline and rally in waves 'i' and 'ii' pink.
If we see a break above 1.2314,
that will trigger the alternate count.
For tomorrow;
Watch for todays high to hold and a break of key support again in wave 'v' pink.
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GBPUSD
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[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: short below parity in wave (5).
Wave Structure: continuing impulsive structure to the downside in wave (5)
Long term wave count: decline in wave (5) blue, below parity
After todays flat corrective looking action, I have shown a slight variation from Fridays chart.
Wave 'iii' pink to the downside remains in force,
however wave '1' of 'iii' is now moved to Fridays low.
Wave '2' grey is still ongoing,
It should trace out three waves
and complete below the trend line at about 1.3920.
The Fibonacci extension projects wave 'iii' down at 1.3351,
Where the price will reach key support.
For tomorrow;
watch for wave '2' grey to complete in three waves,
Wave '3' of 'iii' should then begin.
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USDJPY
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[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: LONG
Wave Structure: rally in wave [C]
Long term wave count: wave [C] is underway, upside to above 136.00
The quiet market extended into USDJPY also.
The short term chart shows a possible wave (iv) green underway as a running flat.
If this is correct,
The price must not break 110.78 before completing.
And wave (v) green should then carry the price lower into the target at about 104.00
There is also a chance that wave (iv) green will develop into a contracting triangle.
If we continue to see a contracting range,
in a series of three wave forms,
Then wave (iv) will be confirmed as a triangle.
For tomorrow;
Both patterns suggest a rise in wave 'c' brown tomorrow,
Wave 'c' brown should complete below 110.47 in both cases.
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DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS
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[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: market topping process completing
Wave Structure: Impulsive 5 wave structure, topping in an all time high.
Long term wave count: topping in wave (5)
The DOW drifted higher today on very light volume.
The pattern off the wave 'i' low still reads best as a corrective three wave rise.
Wave 'ii' must complete below resistance at 25303
so the short term count remains valid.
23371 is the main point of interest this week.
It is the confirmation point for wave (iii) grey,
And a break of that level could kick off a cascade of selling.
For tomorrow;
A further lower high below wave 'ii' will be the first signal that wave 'iii' of (iii) is underway.
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GOLD
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[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: Long to a new all time high above 1827.
Wave Structure: Impulse structure to a new high.
Long term wave count: wave (3) above 1666.
GOLD has not yet confirmed the bullish short term wave count.
The rise off the recent low at 1307.35 still counts as a three wave pattern.
the price must break higher out of this form to be counted as an impulse wave.
There is still a question whether wave (c) of the previous correction is complete.
But,
A break of resistance at 1334 will reaffirm the short term count.
For tomorrow;
The rising trend line off last weeks lows, should remain intact,
watch for a renewed push towards resistance,
And a thrust out of the trend channel in wave 'iii' pink.
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U.S CRUDE OIL
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[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: topping in a large correction wave [4].
Wave Structure: Double combination higher in wave [4] red.
Long term wave count: wave [4] target $63 - $70
Crude carried higher today in a possible wave 'iv' pink.
It is hard to say if wave 'iv' pink is complete at the highs,
Or, if it will extend further in a larger three wave pattern.
58.07 marks the cash low on Friday,
If we see a break of that level it will confirm wave 'v' pink.
And that will complete the larger wave (iii) grey.
At this point we should see a corrective rise in three waves within wave (iv) grey.
So we are now entering a period of sideways consolidation according to this interpretation.
This should take us through the week.
For tomorrow;
Watch for a decline in wave 'v' pink.
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