Hi there all, welcome to this evenings update.
EURUSD.
EURUSD 1hr.
EURUSD 4hr.
EURUSD daily.
I am not known for being a EURO bull that is for sure,
but his market needs a rally to clear out the entrenched bearish sentiment
that has gripped this pair for a while now.
The low of todays trade came in at 1.0892.
This is 14 pips above the next major support level at 1.0878.
The price did spike higher off that low which is interesting
as this could easily be the beginning of a rally in wave ‘a’ of (ii).
Tomorrow;
watch for wave ‘a’ to reverse higher and take out 1.1000 at a minimum
before correcting to a higher low in wave ‘b’.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD 1hr.
GBPUSD 4hr.
GBPUSD daily.
Cable has risen off the low at 1.2873 in three waves.
The trend channel and the lower support has repelled the price higher so far.
Now I want this small move to develop into a larger five wave rally in wave ‘c’ this week.
So that low at 1.2873 must continue to hold and wave ‘c’ should rally for the rest of the week.
A break of 1.3071 will confirm wave ‘c’ has begun.
Tomorrow;
watch for wave ‘c’ to pick up steam and trace out five waves up.
1.2873 should hold.
USDJPY.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY daily.
USDJPY is still drifting sideways as part of a correction in wave (ii) blue.
The action this week is viewed as wave ‘b’ of (ii),
todays high should mark the end of wave ‘b’.
With wave ‘c’ yet to drop back below 109.52 at a minimum.
Wave (ii) can drop back into the 50% retracement level at 109.15,
and that would be more in line with a second wave correction in general.
Tomorrow;
Wave ‘c’ should carry the price lower for tomorrow at least.
Watch for any reaction off the lower trend channel line surrounding wave (ii).
DOW JONES.
DOW 1hr.
DOW 4hr
DOW daily.
The S&P rallied to a new high today, but the DOW has not.
This is a notable divergence on a very small scale between the indexes.
Wave ‘v’ of (v) may well take the price to a new high tomorrow as per the short term count.
But this does speak to the extremely narrow leadership in this rally.
with less and less individual stocks,
accounting for more and more of the rally this year.
The short term count is expecting a five wave move in wave ‘v’ of (v),
and we are not there yet.
the price has traced out a three wave move off the wave ‘iv’ low so far.
A new record high will close out a larger pattern in wave [v] green.
With the target for wave (v) of [v] at the upper trend channel line at about 29830.
Tomorrow;
lets see if we can make a new high and fill the trend channel before looking for a reversal in wave (i) down.
GOLD
GOLD 1hr.
GOLD 4hr.
GOLD daily.
GOLD is continuing to range sideways day after day.
And I am wondering if this is actually a triangle in play for wave (iv) blue.
This does explain the endless grind in the action
and the noticeable range contraction.
So with this in mind I have labelled the move as a triangle today to see how it plays out.
Wave ‘e’ should draw to a close soon and give way to a rally to begin wave (v) of [v].
Tomorrow;
If the price falls below 1547,
that will rule out the triangle and I will revert to the alternate idea.
However a rally from these lows to break 1592 will signal wave (v) has begun.
CRUDE OIL.
CRUDE OIL 1hr.
CRUDE OIL 4hr.
CRUDE OIL daily.
The oil market is finding it suspiciously hard to rally,
given that this the best economy that the world has ever seen and all that!
Well in terms of the wave count,
the price is finding it hard to push higher in wave ‘c’ of a possible wave [ii] correction.
The high of wave (a) of [ii] lies at 52.28,
so this is the minimum target for wave (c) to complete.
I would prefer to see a rise into the previous fourth wave at 54.35 before turning lower again.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (c) to continue higher again.
49.40 must hold on the low end in order for this count to remain valid.
S&P 500.
S&P 500 1hr
S&P 500 4hr
S&P 500 daily.
We got to a new high today,
but we are nowhere near filling the trend channel for wave [v] yet.
That would happen at about 3410 or so.
The price is dropping off the record high this evening.
So either this is a small fourth wave correction within wave ‘v’ of (v).
And we will see a rally again towards that target by the end of the week.
Or,
the top is in here!
We will know soon enough.
Tomorrow;
3303 marks the low of wave ‘iv’ pink.
So the price must hold above that level to allow wave ‘v’ to get going.
On the low end the most important levels lie at 3214 and 3180,
a break below that band of support will be the first signal that a longer term top is in.
SILVER.
SILVER 1hr
SILVER 4hr.
SILVER daily.
Silver also has the possibility of a triangle unfolding.
Although, unlike gold,
a triangle does not suit the idea of a second wave correction at all.
The contracting range does fit with the idea of a series of 1,2 waves creating higher lows though,
so for the moment,
I will stick with the possibility that wave (i) of [iii] is now underway.
The price has corrected in three waves into todays lows.
The price has hit the rising trend line connecting the previous two lows this evening,
and so far the declines have stopped.
Tomorrow;
Wave ‘iii’ may be underway now.
A break of 17.90 will signal that the rally has begun.
Watch for wave ‘ii’ to hold at 17.47 again.
U.S 10YR.
US 10YR 1hr.
US 10YR 4hr.
US 10YR daily.
Bonds declined today off a possible wave (ii) high.
This is very little to go on yet so I am cautious to make any assumptions.
The price pattern has built in a whole lot of support levels over this last rally.
So if wave (iii) down does come,
these levels will test the validity of the wave count for sure.
Tomorrow;
Lets see how wave (iii) develops.
130.20 is the first hurdle to overcome.