Evening folks.
welcome back to a new week in the ongoing mass market delusion!
EURUSD.
EURUSD 1hr.
EURUSD 4hr.
EURUSD daily.
The endless decline continues in EURUSD with a drop below the lower trend channel line.
The momentum has bottomed out now with an upward divergence occurring accross the board.
I am pretty sure we will get a reversal to the upside beginning this week.
The question still remains,
in which wave degree will the reversal be?
The alternate wave ‘C’ rally is still very viable.
But even the lower degree wave (ii) rally on the main wave count
should allow for a possible 300 pips in three waves.
Tomorrow;
Lets see if we can get a spike higher off the lower support at 1.0878.
A bullish higher low should develop buy the middle of this week in wave ‘a’ of (ii).
GBPUSD
GBPUSD 1hr.
GBPUSD 4hr.
GBPUSD daily.
Todays low in cable reached 1.2873.
The price just broke below support briefly overnight before returning back above today.
The sideways action over the last few weeks is a clear three wave pattern in wave ‘b’ of (ii).
And todays low in wave ‘b’ hit the lower trend channel line,
before bouncing higher into this evenings close.
If wave ‘b’ is done now,
then we should see a rally in wave ‘c’ over the next few sessions.
The initial target remains at 1.3283.
Tomorrow;
Watch for 1.2873 to hold.
Wave ‘c’ should trace out five waves higher.
A break of the recent high at 1.3071 should signal wave ‘c’ is underway.
USDJPY.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY daily.
USDJPY is holding steady today which indicates wave (ii) is still underway.
It is possible that wave (ii) is tracing out a triangle within wave ‘b’ of (ii).
And this should lead to another drop in wave ‘c’ to complete the pattern.
Wave ‘c’ should drop below 109.52 at a minimum,
in order to completing the larger wave (ii) pattern.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (ii) to continue lower for another day at least.
Wave ‘c’ should fall towards support at 109.15 again.
DOW JONES.
DOW 1hr.
DOW 4hr
DOW daily.
Stocks have recovered to a lower high this evening after a rough early trade.
There looks to be some cracks appearing in the bullish narrative now,
after a significant and worrying slowing in momentum again at every time frame.
The latest decline still looks corrective for the moment,
so I am viewing this as wave ‘iv’ of (v) with another new high left to complete the pattern.
The market can move higher again against this headwind to complete wave (v),
but that upper trend channel line,
should offer serious resistance to any rally from here.
So we have an upper limit for wave ‘v’ of (v) again at about 29830.
Tomorrow;
watch for wave ‘iv’ to hold at todays lows after a three wave fall.
Wave ‘v’ of (v) could bring a new all time high this week.
So lets see if wave ‘v’ can begin tomorrow.
GOLD
GOLD 1hr.
GOLD 4hr.
GOLD daily.
Gold is holding up today so far hovering at 1575 throughout the session,
but the price action is very weak indeed at this point.
If the bullish alternate count is correct,
then we must see an acceleration higher above 1600 this week,
to carry us out of this corrective formation an into a rally in wave (v).
Tomorrow;
For the moment I am sticking with the idea that a three wave decline is underway in wave ‘c’ of (iv).
This will make wave (iv) a triple three combination wave.
And wave ‘c’ should fall into 1535 again to complete this pattern.
CRUDE OIL.
CRUDE OIL 1hr.
CRUDE OIL 4hr.
CRUDE OIL daily.
We did not quite make a new low today in crude oil,
but we are close this evening.
This new decline has caused me to revise the short term count slightly.
Todays low is now viewed as wave (b) of [ii].
And the rally that is coming,
should be in wave (c) with the target at about 54.00 now.
I came across this headline today which is a contrarian indicator in my book,
and strengthens my case for a corrective rally!
Oil Could Drop To Mid-$40s As Demand Crumbles
Bullish headlines at the highs and bearish headlines at the lows,
pretty typical really!
Tomorrow;
Wave (c) should first create an impulsive higher low soon.
That will be the signal wave (c) has begun.
S&P 500.
S&P 500 1hr
S&P 500 4hr
S&P 500 daily.
The S&P is pushing higher at this evening close,
which seems to confirm the idea that the decline of late last week was a fourth wave.
this rally should push out to a new all time high above 3357 now at a minimum.
And wave ‘v’ of (v) has the potential to reach towards the upper trend line at about 3400 to complete.
The overall view is the same.
This rally is going to cap off a five wave rally off the late September lows.
And a few more points on the upper end of this run does not change the outcome.
A brutal declin awaits us in stocks,
so I am patiently waiting for the first leg down to indicate the top is in.
Tomorrow;
This week is still looking up for the moment in wave (v).
But I suspect we will close out that rally soon.
watch for wave ‘v’ of (v) to continue higher tomorrow.
SILVER.
SILVER 1hr
SILVER 4hr.
SILVER daily.
There is very little to go on in Silver today.
The price range has continued to contract today,
without any indication which way this correction will resolve yet.
The bullish count calls for a rally in wave ‘iii’ of (v) to begin
and push up towards 19.00 again.
The alternate count will allow for a drop back to 17.20 again in a larger wave [ii].
Tomorrow;
If we see a break of 18.09 again
that should favor the main wave count and we can expect a follow through in wave ‘iii’ of (V).
A break of 17.47 again on the lower end of the price range will favor the alternate count.
So;
Watch for 17.47 to hold and wave ‘iii’ to begin soon.
U.S 10YR.
US 10YR 1hr.
US 10YR 4hr.
US 10YR daily.
Bonds are correcting higher in wave (ii) again today.
The pattern is calling for wave (iii) to fall again and break 130.20 again quickly in order to turn the tide on the rally.
The high stands at 131.89 so far.
This level must hold for this bearish count to remain valid.
And if that level does break.
I think I will have to rethink the action in the bond market completely.
so this week is critical in terms of the long term patterns.
Tomorrow;
131.89 must hold now, and wave (iii) has got to get underway.