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Hello and welcome to everyone!
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EURUSD
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It is likely that wave ‘i’ down is now complete at todays lows of 1.1324.
This does mean that wave ‘4’ of ‘i’ was a very small affair though,
so I am open to a larger wave ‘4’ developing tomorrow,
and then a further drop in wave ‘5’.
We will see tomorrow on that front.
Tomorrow;
The rise off the low is viewed as wave ‘a’ of ‘ii’.
So watch for wave ‘b’ and ‘c’ to complete three waves.
Wave ‘ii’ should hit the 1.1400 handle again before completing.
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GBPUSD
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Cable broke support at the wave (a) high early this morning.
this action completed wave (i) down,
and the price immediately spiked higher in a possible five wave move.
That spike is labelled wave ‘a’ of (ii),
Wave ‘b’ is now underway but should hold above the low of the session at 1.2852.
And wave ‘c’ will likely carry above 1.30 again before completing wave (ii).
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (ii) to continue in three waves to the upside.
Once wave (ii) completes,
we will have a bearish signal in place.
And there will be a good chance that wave (iii) will accelerate lower over the coming weeks.
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USDJPY
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It seems that USDJPY is still chugging along sideways in wave ‘ii’ pink.
The action is very corrective in nature,
so I think the wave ‘ii’ label is fitting.
We might get one more low at the trend channel line to tomorrow to close out wave ‘ii’.
And then we will have a bullish 5,3 pattern in place,
back in the direction of the larger trend.
Wave ‘iii’ of (iii) to the upside should be a strong impulsive move
and the initial target is in the area of 112.00.
This is wave (iii) reaches 162% of wave (i).
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘ii’ to complete,
A break of 110.16 again will signal that wave ‘iii’ has begun.
Next week is looking good for the USD in general.
One step at a time!
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DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS
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Todays decline is welcome,
but it’s not really anything worth writing home about just yet!
The bullish extremes in momentum and sentiment would call for at least a correction lower.
But I want to see a full blown five wave decline
back towards the 24000 level again in wave (i) grey.
If we get that move,
and a corrective lower high,
then I will write letters galore!
The drop off the high today has already recovered slightly,
I have labelled this drop as ‘i’ and ‘ii’ of (i).
If this is correct,
then the market should continue lower tomorrow in wave ‘iii’.
It is interesting to note the gap lower today has closed the gap higher on Tuesday.
This qualifies as a bearish island reversal pattern.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘ii’ to complete early and a continuation lower in a possible wave ‘iii’ of (i).
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GOLD
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The gold price dropped overnight and hit the lower trend channel line at 1302.
This completes a three wave decline in either wave (iv),
or the alternate wave ‘ii’.
I am starting to lean towards the alternate count at the moment.
The alternate count allows for a larger extension in wave (v) blue.
And this rally could carry price up to the 1400 handle again,
before completing the larger wave [iii].
Tomorrow;
in the short term we have to figure out if wave (iv) is now complete.
Watch for a five wave rally to break 1326 again in wave ‘i’ of ‘v’.
1302 must hold as wave ‘i’ develops.
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[_s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_ccap_crude)]
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U.S CRUDE OIL
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Crude dropped along with stocks again today.
This drop is viewed as a possible wave ‘iii’ of (iii)
within the larger wave [i] down.
The form of the decline is good so far,
but wave ‘iii’ down does not look complete just yet.
I would like to see a break of 51.39 in wave (iii),
so there should be more downside to come tomorrow is this short term count is correct.
Tomorrow;
53.30 marks the low of wave (i) down,
Watch for that level to hold for now as wave (iii) down continues to unfold.
Wave ‘iii’ of (iii) should continue lower tomorrow.
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[_s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_ccap_us10yr)]
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US 10 yr Treasuries.
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Wave ‘ii’ hit a high at 122.27 today,
and the price has filled a trend channel in three waves off the wave ‘i’ low at 121.56.
At the moment,
we have a complete impulse wave lower in place off that wave (ii) high at 122.56.
The high at 122.56 must now hold
and the price must reverse next week in wave ‘iii’ of (iii) of [i] to the downside.
A break of that wave ‘i’ low at 121.56 will signal that wave ‘iii’ has begun.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘ii’ to close out,
and the initial move lower into wave ‘iii’ to begin.
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[_s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_ccap_silver)]
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SILVER
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Wave ‘c’ of (ii) in Silver has dropped in three waves,
and found some support at the wave ‘a’ low today.
But I don’t think that wave ‘c’ is complete yet.
The action is very flat and corrective off the lows,
so I expect to see another drop into about 15.50 to finish a three wave correction in wave (ii).
If the price was to meet the lower trendline again that would bring wave ‘c’ to the 15.35 area.
Tomorrow;
This correction could well complete by the end of trading tomorrow,
If so, then next week is looking good for silver again.
Watch for wave ‘c’ to create a final low between 1530 and 15.50 tomorrow.
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[_s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_ccap_sp500)]
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S&P 500.
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The S&P is looking a little better this evening after todays gap to the downside.
I have labelled the pattern so far as the first impulse lower in wave (i) down.
Wave ‘iii’ should follow tomorrow or Monday,
and carry the price back into the area of the previous wave (iv) at 2629.
I would like to see a break of that initial support as wave (i) completes.
This action would set us up for a large impulse wave lower to signal wave (3) down is beginning.
But I am getting ahead of myself as usual!
Tomorrow;
We need to see a lower high complete soon in wave ‘ii’
and wave ‘iii’ to continue lower towards support.
If wave ‘iii’ begins tomorrow,
that will be all the better.
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