Good nigh to all.
EURUSD.
EURUSD 1hr.
EURUSD 4hr.
EURUSD daily.
The action in EURUSD today favors the main wave count.
This continued decline in a possible wave ‘v’ of (i) has ruled out an immediate switch to the alternate count.
Although the alternate count is not off the table at all,
it will have to take a back seat again until we get another rise off the lows.
Todays decline has created a double bottom on the hourly chart,
If the price falls into the lower trend line and then bounces back above 1.1000,
that will indicate wave (ii) or wave ‘C’ has begun.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (i) to complete and then a reversal higher should begin.
wave (ii) should rise back up to about 1.1150 in three waves.
The strength and the form of that reversal will dictate which wave count fits best.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD 1hr.
GBPUSD 4hr.
GBPUSD daily.
GBPUSD spiked lower this morning but has held above the wave ‘b’ low so far today.
It is possible that this small higher low is the beginning of wave ‘c’,
with a five wave rally expected to carry the price up to about 1.3283 over the coming few sessions.
The low at wave ‘b’ of 1.2941 must hold for this short term count to remain valid.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘b’ to hold and wave ‘c’ to push higher again.
1.3208 marks the first level of resistance from here.
USDJPY.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY daily.
USDJPY is close to completing a five wave rally off the recent lows at wave [ii].
It would be good if wave (i) of [iii] could break the recent high of wave [i]
at 110.28 before correcting again in wave (ii).
It is not absolutely necessary,
but this action would be a strong signal that the larger wave [iii] is now underway.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘v’ of (i) to continue higher towards resistance at 110.28.
DOW JONES.
DOW 1hr.
DOW 4hr
DOW daily.
Todays rally has really pushed the limits of the bearish count.
The high of the session has not broken to a new all time high yet,
so there is still a chance,
although it is small,
that this is a second wave high rather than a new breakout to a higher wave [v].
The rally over the last few sessions has been almost vertical,
and is set against a back drop worsening economic and financial news.
But who cares about reality when the market is rising eh?
The point being,
these types of hot air rallies can reverse on a dime,
so I am leaving the door open for that to happen.
Tomorrow;
29373 must hold.
I want to see a sharp selloff begin tomorrow in a possible wave ‘i’ of (iii).
GOLD
GOLD 1hr.
GOLD 4hr.
GOLD daily.
Gold is holding up quite well despite an almost unprecedented rally in stocks!
So the bullish question remains,
open on whether we can turn higher into wave (v) soon than expected.
If the price falls into support at 1535 and then rallies,
that will create a clean three wave correction in wave (iv).
And then we can look up again in wave (v).
But if we do not see a new low in wave ‘c’,
and the price rallies back above 1592 again,
that will signal wave (v) is already underway.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘c’ to fall into support at 1535 one last time before wave (v) up gets going.
CRUDE OIL.
CRUDE OIL 1hr.
CRUDE OIL 4hr.
CRUDE OIL daily.
Well crude finally pushed back towards 52.00 today to signal that a possible corrective rally has begun.
The price sold off before breaking that level,
but we are holding at a higher low this evening.
This action is labelled as waves ‘a’ and ‘b’ of (a).
And this count suggests we have more upside left in wave (a) this week.
Short term support lies at the recent low of 49.40.
So that level must hold for this count to remain valid.
Tomorrow;
watch for wave ‘b’ of (a) to hold above 49.40.
Wave ‘c’ should push back up to about 53.00 to complete.
S&P 500.
S&P 500 1hr
S&P 500 4hr
S&P 500 daily.
The S&P has reached a double top this evening without breaking to a new high yet.
But this action has pretty much ruled out the previous bearish count.
The most likely alternate count views the decline off the high as a larger wave (iv) as shown.
The drop completed in three waves,
and now we have a blow off rally out off that low
which points to a fifth wave now underway.
It is possible that wave (v) is already well into its travel.
Wave (v) is tracing out a five wave pattern.
With the internal wave ‘iii’ of (v) extending today.
Tomorrow;
I know we are close to the end of this relentless rally.
But it looks like the market wants one more top for old times sake!
Lets see if we can break to a new high tomorrow and get close to a completed five wave form off the low.
SILVER.
SILVER 1hr
SILVER 4hr.
SILVER daily.
It is very interesting that silver is also holding above the recent lows,
given that we had a monster rally in stocks today.
You might call this a bearish divergence for the stock market in some sense.
It will be interesting how this plays out.
18.09 is the key level in the short term.
If we see a break above that level
it should signal that wave (i) of [iii] has begun.
With wave (i) set to push back up to the recent highs again at 18.83.
Tomorrow;
Watch for 17.37 to hold again.
Wave ‘iii’ of (i) should rally sharply and break 18.83 again easily.
U.S 10YR.
US 10YR 1hr.
US 10YR 4hr.
US 10YR daily.
Bonds have moved lower in a reasonable five wave pattern so far.
There has not been a break of that initial band of support just yet.
And if this is wave (i),
it should break that level and accelerate lower towards 128.90 at a minimum.
So the jury is out on this decline for the moment.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (i) to continue lower and break support.
131.89 must hold.