[vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator border_width="5"][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]
Who could ever have seen the crash coming?
The market was in such great shape,
The economy was expanding rapidly,
Unemployment was below 5%,
Well, well, well......
The DOW reached a low just a few minutes ago of 23968.
The high at 26610 was 11 days ago,
Thats a 2640 point decline in 11 days.
I bet it sucks to have bought at the high,
Especially if you are one of the lucky few to have bought on margin.
Those margin calls are going to hurt.
On top of that,
The structure of the decline now looks very much like a 5 wave pattern.
The action that follows over the next few days,
is now crucial for the long term future of this market.
more on this later.
And in other news,
Bitcoin traded below $7000 today,
$6631 was the low of the session after another brutal day at the slots!
This market as a whole, is starting to shake.
Things are getting very interesting!
Lets get into it shall we.
[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]
UPCOMING RISK EVENTS:
USD: n/a.
EUR: German Buba President Weidmann Speaks.
GBP: n/a.
JPY: n/a.
[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]
[vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator border_width="5"][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]
EURUSD
[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator border_width="5"][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width="2/3"][vc_custom_heading text="30 min" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text]
[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][vc_column width="1/3"][vc_custom_heading text="4 Hours" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text]
[/vc_column_text][vc_custom_heading text="Daily" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text]
[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: long term bearish
Wave Structure: Topping in wave [B] black.
Long term wave count: lower in wave [C] black.
The short term action in EURUSD is still somewhat in flux.
The wave count has changed slightly from friday.
Wave (ii) looks to be tracing out a larger flat,
or double combination correction off the recent wave (i) high.
Wave 'c' pink is now approaching the lower trendline again to complete.
The minimum target for wave 'c' is at 1.2334,
Which will meet the low of wave 'a' pink.
for tomorrow;
Watch for a continuation of the decline into 1.2334.
I will look higher in wave (iii) at that point.
[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]
[vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator border_width="5"][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]
GBPUSD
[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator border_width="5"][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width="2/3"][vc_custom_heading text="30 min" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text]
[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][vc_column width="1/3"][vc_custom_heading text="4 Hours" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text]
[/vc_column_text][vc_custom_heading text="Daily" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text]
[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: short below parity in wave (5).
Wave Structure: continuing impulsive structure to the downside in wave (5)
Long term wave count: decline in wave (5) blue, below parity
Cable continued to decline in wave 'iv' pink today.
The price has met support at 1.3978
Which is the previous wave 'a'.
Wave 'c' should now complete in the region of 1.3880.
Where the price will meet the lower trendline.
For tomorrow;
Watch for a reversal higher in an impulse wave '1' and '2'.
This should create a higher low and an interesting opportunity in wave 'v' pink.
[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]
[vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator border_width="5"][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]
USDJPY
[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator border_width="5"][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width="2/3"][vc_custom_heading text="30 min" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text]
[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][vc_column width="1/3"][vc_custom_heading text="4 Hours" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text]
[/vc_column_text][vc_custom_heading text="Daily" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text]
[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: LONG
Wave Structure: rally in wave [C]
Long term wave count: wave [C] is underway, upside to above 136.00
The sharp reversal this evening forced a small change to the short term wave count.
There is a reasonable possibility that wave 'i' brown completed at Fridays high of 110.47.
Off that high
Wave 'ii' brown has traced out three waves lower.
the critical low for this count lies at 108.27.
A break of that level will rule out the short term bullish outlook.
For tomorrow,
Watch for wave 'ii' to bottom above 108.27
If we do not see a resurgence in USDJPY this week,
Then we will have to consider switching to the alternate wave count.
[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]
[vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator border_width="5"][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]
DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS
[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator border_width="5"][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width="2/3"][vc_custom_heading text="30 min" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text]
[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][vc_column width="1/3"][vc_custom_heading text="4 Hours" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text]
[/vc_column_text][vc_custom_heading text="Daily" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text]
[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: market topping process completing
Wave Structure: Impulsive 5 wave structure, topping in an all time high.
Long term wave count: topping in wave (5)
Wow,
What a day!
I have been trying to keep up with the chart for the last hour
as the lows of the day kept breaking!
This bear market is getting off to a great start!
As I mentioned in the intro this evening,
What happens from here, is now crucial in terms of the wave count interpretation.
Any rally from here must trace out a three wave structure,
And must complete below the high at 26610.
At that point we will have a viable bearish Elliott wave signal off the high,
And an indication that the bear market is about to kick off.
Initial support was broken today at 24737,
This now becomes initial resistance for the correction in wave (ii) grey.
25507 marks the high of the previous wave 'iv' pink.
This level now becomes the likely target for wave (ii) grey.
a 50% retracement in wave (ii) will carry the market to about 25300.
So;
For the rest of the week we are on suicide watch for the bull market!
I expect a three wave retracement off nearby lows.
This could begin tomorrow.
[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]
[vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator border_width="5"][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]
GOLD
[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator border_width="5"][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width="2/3"][vc_custom_heading text="30 min" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text]
[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][vc_column width="1/3"][vc_custom_heading text="4 Hours" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text]
[/vc_column_text][vc_custom_heading text="Daily" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text]
[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: Long to a new all time high above 1827.
Wave Structure: Impulse structure to a new high.
Long term wave count: wave (3) above 1666.
The action in GOLD today has not altered the wave count just yet.
the decline off wave (b) blue is still unfolding,
as wave (c) blue has not completed five waves down yet.
There is a possibility that wave [ii] green is tracing out a triple combination.
This would project a three wave decline in wave (c) blue.
Either way,
wave [ii] green is yet to complete.
For tomorrow;
watch for a decline into the trendline at about 1320 where wave (c) will reach equality with wave (a).
[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]
[vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator border_width="5"][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]
U.S CRUDE OIL
[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator border_width="5"][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width="2/3"][vc_custom_heading text="30 min" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text]
[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][vc_column width="1/3"][vc_custom_heading text="4 Hours" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text]
[/vc_column_text][vc_custom_heading text="Daily" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text]
[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: topping in a large correction wave [4].
Wave Structure: Double combination higher in wave [4] red.
Long term wave count: wave [4] target $63 - $70
What a difference a day makes!
Key support at 62.78 is coming under serious pressure now,
And a break of that level will trigger the alternate wave count which views the rally in wave [4] as complete.
Until that happens,
The current interpretation shows this decline off the high as a flat correction wave (ii) grey.
This wave must complete above 62.78.
For tomorrow;
All eyes are on 62.78.
If I see an impulse wave higher off the current low,
That will revive the short term bullish outlook.
[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]