God Bless you and good evening to you all!

Can this go lower?

Yes it can for sure – but where we stand right now on this chart mirrors and complements where we are on the valuation stand point – and this points to the biggest decline ahead of us since the great depression.

This is no joke, and it is going to hurt, and this time around there is no ammo left in the public purse to counter any sort of decline that comes.

EURUSD.

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

Another day hanging at the lower trend channel line.
There is no rebound to speak of yet though,
so for now we can assume that wave ‘iii’ of (iii) is still underway.
I want to see the price hold below the wave ‘i’ low at 1.2058 tomorrow.
If that happens,
and we see a further decline out of the trend channel,
that really does open up the trap door scenario for wave [iii] green to make significant moves lower over rhe next week.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘i’ of (iii) to hold at 1.2058.
Wave ‘iii’ of (iii) should continue lower.

The alternate count will be triggered if we break 1.2058 and hold above it.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1hr.

GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

Cable has completely gone to sleep this week!

This non action does raise some questions about the top at wave ‘C’ now,
as I would expect to see an impulsive decline off the high to begin by now.

I am willing to give the decline some room to develop for now,
simply because the upside momentum is dead in the water,
and we have a pretty nice pattern as an ending diagonal into that recent high.

Tomorrow;
Watch for an impulsive move below 1.3517 to get the ball rolling to the downside.
I would like to see five waves down in place by the end of the week.

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 4hr.

USDJPY daily.

Wave [iii] green has hit a plateau in the pattern these days and seems to be consolidating now.
The wave count suggests we will top out soon in wave (iii) of [iii].
The price range is contracting at the moment,
so this may be happening in a triangle wave ‘iv’ of (iii).
With one more push higher into wave ‘v’ of (iii) tomorrow.

We will likely see a larger correction in wave (iv) of [iii] towards Friday afternoon.

Tomorrow;
104.40 must continue to hold.
Watch for wave (iii) to top out soon with one more pop to complete five waves up.

DOW JONES.

DOW 1hr.

DOW 4hr

DOW daily.

The Dow is holding flat after a small three wave decline into the early session today.
The price has bounced again this evening,
so I suspect we are still watching the ongoing completion of wave [ii],
with one more high likely.
That interim high labelled wave (iv) at 30940 is the next resistance level above us here.
So I want to see that level hold the advance and then we should see a reversal into wave [iii] begin.

The S&P is running into a new high following a different pattern now,
so it remains to be seen if the Dow turns early,
or if it assumes the pattern of the S&P.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (c) of [ii] to top out and then return lower into wave (i) of [iii].
Wave (i) should fall into the 30000 level again to get the next wave underway.

GOLD

GOLD 1hr.

GOLD 4hr.

GOLD daily.

The decline in gold has stalled also today,
which is a little concerning give that we are supposed to be moving into the next leg down in wave (i) of [iii].
Todays action is a hint in favor of the alternate count at the moment.
In that case we are now hitting a low in wave (b) of [ii],
and wave (c) will rally in five waves off this low to complete above 1875.

Both cases lead to a decline into wave [iii] in the end,
but I think it is worth while considering the immediate risks in the main wave count.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (i) to complete five waves down at the 1800 support level.

CRUDE OIL.

CRUDE OIL 1hr.

CRUDE OIL 4hr.

CRUDE OIL daily.

I have switched to the alternate count for crude this evening.
The rally out of that triangle was expected,
but that rally seems too large now to label it at such a small degree.

If you take a look at the 4hr chart you will see a complete five wave pattern into this high.
And this rally should bring wave ‘C’ to a close pretty soon.
We may not get a turn lower this week,
but I am confident that this rally has run its course in wave (4) and February will bring with it reversal in fortunes for crude oil.

Tomorrow;
Only five waves down from here will be enough to begin counting to the downside again,
so lets see if the market can provide that before Friday.

S&P 500.

S&P 500 1hr

S&P 500 4hr

S&P 500 daily.

We are almost there in the S&P wave count now.
The market is on the verge of a new all time high which should carry us up to that uppert trend line,
and with that complete the expanding diagonal pattern in wave [v].

There only issue I have right now is regarding the ‘look’ of wave (v).
It is much more like a straight five wave pattern at the moment.

Of course it is possible that wave (v) is merely a condensed three wave pattern,
but I have shown an alternate count this evening which will allow for a more pronounced three wave pattern into the high at wave (v).

If we see a drop back below 3800 tomorrow,
that will favor the alternate count for wave (v).

Tomorrow;
Waiting for wave (v) to complete before the end of this week if possible!
At this point it looks likely that February will be a down month into wave [i] when all is said and done!

This pattern may end up being an exact mirror of the February 2020 setup!

SILVER.

SILVER 1hr

SILVER 4hr.

SILVER daily.

Silver is tracking sideways in a possible triangle pattern today.
I have labelled this as wave [iv] of ‘1’,
with wave [v] left to complete five waves down later this week.
It would be good to see a break of the 25.00 level at the low of wave ‘1’,
but that remains to be seen.

It is interesting to note that the price is still sitting in the exact place it was last August!
After all this action,
we have gone absolutely nowhere!

This fact alone does speak of the corrective nature of the action in general,
and once we do find the final low of wave [2],
we should be off to the races again into wave [3] as we get into the year.

Right now I am still holding my ammo and looking for wave (C) to complete back at the 20.00 handle again before getting excited about the next leg up.