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Good evening to one and all.
numerous markets got sucker punched today!
Which has forced a rethink in a few of the short term wave counts.
Lets get right into it!
And I will keep it to the point tonight,
as I want to get a video out tonight also.
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UPCOMING RISK EVENTS:
USD: ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, Mortgage Delinquencies.
EUR: n/a.
GBP: Services PMI,
JPY: n/a.
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EURUSD
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[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: long term bearish
Wave Structure: Topping in wave [B] black.
Long term wave count: lower in wave [C] black.
Todays decline in EURUSD has setup a possible bullish series of 1,2 waves.
The latest rise and higher low are labeled waves '1' and '2' black.
This wave count suggests that wave 'iii' pink is undergoing an extension higher.
1.2381 must hold on Monday,
And the price must spike higher in wave '3' of 'iii'.
next week;
It looks likely that EURUSD will rally in wave 'iii' pink early next week,
A break of 1.2538 will confirm the short term bullish count.
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GBPUSD
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[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: short below parity in wave (5).
Wave Structure: continuing impulsive structure to the downside in wave (5)
Long term wave count: decline in wave (5) blue, below parity
I have switched to the alternate wave count in cable tonight.
Wave 'v' pink seems to be extending higher
after todays decline into the trend line.
The previous wave 'iv' lies at 1.3978,
This level is now key support for the short term wave count.
For next week;
A break above 1.4344 will confirm the short term bullish count
First look for a break of 1.4279 to confirm wave '3' grey.
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USDJPY
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[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: LONG
Wave Structure: rally in wave [C]
Long term wave count: wave [C] is underway, upside to above 136.00
USDJPY is not giving up just yet!
There is a chance that the rise off the recent low is a developing bullish five wave pattern.
The main level of interest in the bullish setup lies at 111.22.
A break of that level could turn the momentum towards the positive.
I am waiting for a larger signal to trace out in waves 'i' and 'ii' brown.
If that occurs I will turn very bullish in the short term.
So;
For next week.
I will be tracking the development of the Elliott wave signal off the low.
The chance for a bullish trend move higher is drawing close.
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DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS
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[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: market topping process completing
Wave Structure: Impulsive 5 wave structure, topping in an all time high.
Long term wave count: topping in wave (5)
Stocks took a major spill today!
The decline is developing nicely so far,
But we need to see some key things happen
in order to give confidence to the bearish outlook.
On the 4hr chart
we can see that the price has used the 50MA as resistance
and is now fast approaching the 200MA this evening.
If we get a solid break of that line,
And if we begin to see the 200MA resisting the price,
Then the bear market thesis will get a major boost
next week,
The short term count shows an Idealized five wave decline,
Mondays action could close out wave 'iii' pink.
initial resistance lies at 26032,
This is the low of wave 'i' pink.
Wave 'iv' must not break that level.
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GOLD
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[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: Long to a new all time high above 1827.
Wave Structure: Impulse structure to a new high.
Long term wave count: wave (3) above 1666.
GOLD turned down in wave (c) blue today
Breaking through the wave (a) support at 1334.
The correction should draw to a close next week
Wave (c) blue reaches equality with wave (a) blue at 1319,
This level is the one to watch on Monday for signs of a bottom.
Next week;
Wave [ii] green should complete in the area of 1319,
After which I will look for a turn up again in wave [iii] green.
This next phase of the GOLD price rally should be explosive.
It may also coincide with a serious decline in stocks!
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U.S CRUDE OIL
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[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: topping in a large correction wave [4].
Wave Structure: Double combination higher in wave [4] red.
Long term wave count: wave [4] target $63 - $70
Crude took a beating also today,
the price has recovered this evening,
although todays decline has forced a rethink of the short term pattern.
I have shown a possible 'i' 'ii' pattern in pink off this weeks lows.
This suggests wave (iii) grey is about to create a bullish extension.
Wave 'iii' should begin in early trading next week,
todays low at 64.47 is key to this rally from here
it should not be broken as wave 'iii' begins.
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Have a great weekend everyone,
next week looks very interesting from here!
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