Good evening to you all, and may the Lord bless you all tonight.

Sven Henrich @NorthmanTrader – I see we’re heading back to normal!

EURUSD.

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

The rally in wave (iv) is getting too close for comfort now.
The price got very close to breaking that wave (i) low at 1.1300 at the high today.

A break of that 1.1300 level will invalidate this short term pattern.
the most likely alternate count now is that wave [v] is complete and the recent low
and wave ‘A’ of (E) is now beginning off that low.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (v) to fall sharply and break 1.1121 at a minimum.
1.1300 must hold.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1hr.

GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

Cable is close to completing a three wave rally higher in wave (ii) this evening.
The price has reached the previous wave ‘iv’ area at the high today.
So I am now turning my attention to the downside again today.
If wave (ii) is now completing,
then wave (iii) should get underway by tomorrow evening.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (iv) to top out very soon.
A drop back below 1.3400 again will signal wave ‘i’ of (iii) is underway.

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 4hr.

USDJPY daily.

USDJPY is falling again today and the pattern is beginning to take an impulsive form.
Todays decline can be viewed as wave (iii) of [c] now developing.
I suspect wave (iii) should fall into the 114.00 area before completing,
and if that happens tomorrow,
there is a good chance that wave [c] overall will make it down towards 112.50 at the lower trend channel line by the end of the week.

The alternate count for the current higher low is shown in red.
And this pattern views wave ‘4’ as complete at the recent lows.
Wave ‘5’ will be confirmed if we see another break above 115.70 again.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (iii) of [c] to continue lower as shown.
Five waves down in wave [c] may even complete this week.

DOW JONES.

DOW 1hr.

DOW 4hr

DOW daily.

Wave (c) of [ii] has reached back above the 50% retracement level now.
The pattern for wave [ii] has completed a satisfactory lower high at this stage,
and now we are at the point where it is very possible the market could reverse sharply into a third wave down.
We are at a trapdoor moment in other words.
If we do see a sharp spike lower in five waves to break the wave (b) low at 33730 again,
then I would really favor the odds that wave (i) of [iii] was in force.

On the flip side,
if the market does not reverse but instead continues higher,
then we move into a completely different scenario for this short term count.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (i) of [iii] to begin with a break of 34500 again.

GOLD

GOLD 1hr.

GOLD 4hr.

GOLD daily.

Wave (a) is now best counted as a five wave rally into todays highs.
The price did break that 1800 level again today reaching 1808.
and the reversal off that high is now counted as wave (b) of [b].
Wave (b) should form a solid higher low above 1780 again by tomorrow evening.
and then wave (c) is expected to rally again into the 1820 area to complete three waves up in wave [b].

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (b) to trace out three waves down and to hold above 1780 at the extreme lower end.

CRUDE OIL.

CRUDE OIL 1hr.

CRUDE OIL 4hr.

CRUDE OIL daily.

The action over the last few sessions is proving difficult to nail down right now.
I am still running with the idea that this pattern is tracing out waves (a) and (b) at todays high.
Wave (c) should fall again and break below 85.70 at a minimum to complete the larger wave [a] green as shown.
Until that happens I am going to keep an open mind here.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (c) to continue lower and trace out five waves down with a break of 85.70 at a minimum.

S&P 500.

S&P 500 1hr

S&P 500 4hr

S&P 500 daily.

It is a similar story for the S&P today also.
There is a reasonable chance that wave (iv) is now complete at the session high.
The price is holding below the wave (i) low so far,
and we have a solid three wave pattern in place for wave (iv).
All things considered,
this is a good time for wave (v) to turn lower again and complete a five wave decline below 4220.

The alternate count is still valid here,
and it does call for an even larger decline to begin into wave [iii] as per the wave count in the dow.
A break of 4580 again will trigger this count.

Tomorrow;
watch for wave (v) of [i] to begin a sharp five wave decline to a new low over the coming days.

SILVER.

SILVER 1hr

SILVER 4hr.

SILVER daily.

Silver completed three waves up in wave (a) of [ii] this afternoon,
and the price is falling again this evening into wave (b).
Wave (b) should hold above the recent low at 22.13.
And wave (c) is expected to rally back towards the 50% retracement level at 23.40 by the end of the week.
Overall this pattern is rolling along quite well at the moment.
Once we see a clear corrective lower high in wave [ii],
then I will look for wave [iii] to begin, most likely next week sometime.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (b) to hold above 22.13.