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Good evening to one and all.
The video is done and posted.
next week I hope to do a video concentrating on alternate counts in a little more depth.
hopefully it will be a weekly thing.
Ok, down to it.
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EURUSD
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EURUSD seems to be done with wave (ii) now.
The price has now created a lower high with five waves down off that high.
Wave ‘2’ may create a larger three wave move off the wave ‘1’ low.
but even so,
price should now stay below 1.1514 as wave ‘i’ down develops.
The alternate count showing the possibility for a larger wave (ii)
should be ruled out with a five wave decline from here.
Monday;
watch for wave ‘2’ to complete and wave ‘3’ of ‘i’ to continue lower.
wave ‘3’ should break 1.1404.
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GBPUSD
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I am working with the idea that wave ‘ii’ is creating an expanded flat
off the wave ‘i’ low at 1.3055.
If so,
wave ‘c’ of ‘ii’ should create a double top with wave ‘a’ at about 1.3161 on Monday.
The high at 1.3220 must hold and we should then see a drop again in wave ‘iii’.
And wave ‘iii’ should break 1.2926.
Next weeks action should bring a new five wave decline off the high at wave ‘2’.
and a new signal that we are finally moving into wave ‘3’ down.
Monday;
Watch for a double top at 1.3161 in wave ‘c’ of ‘ii’.
Wave ‘iii’ down should begin.
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USDJPY
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Todays session finally brought the rally in wave ‘i’ that the wave setup was calling for.
Wave ‘i’ up does not look complete yet,
I think we should see a break of 110.00 again by the end of wave ‘i’.
The low at wave (ii) looks fairly solid now,
and we should see that level hold from here on out as wave (iii) up develops.
Monday;
watch for wave ‘i’ to complete above 110.00.
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DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS
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The DOW is moving lower again this evening off the highs of the session.
There was a very short blip above the 78.6% retracement level at 25129 today.
But so far that level is proving hard to crack.
The general outlook is exactly the same this evening.
The past month has been a lesson in patience for us bears!
Traders screamed for good news from the govt and the fed,
and they got everything they could have ever wanted.
Cheap credit is here to stay for the long haul.
But that will not stop the market falling when wave ‘3’ down begins.
We are all outta good news now,
So this bear market rally has pretty much run its course.
The aim next week is to identify a five wave move lower off the highs,
we should be able to pick the end of wave (ii) when it appears.
Monday;
Watch for a decline to begin in wave (i) down.
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GOLD
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Gold is off the highs today,
but so far no significant move lower to signal that wave (iv) has begun.
As I mentioned in the video this evening,
This weeks high may turn out to be lower degree third wave within wave (iii) up,
and if that is the case,
then this correction will be shallower and shorter than shown.
We should know by Wednesday what is going in this regard.
For now it is worth staying the course and expecting the worst in wave (iv).
The target lies at the previous wave ‘iv’ low at 1276 in a three wave move.
Monday;
Watch for further declines in wave ‘a’ of (iv).
The price should find support at 1298, the high of wave ‘iii’.
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U.S CRUDE OIL
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Crude rallied in wave (v) of [v] today,
this completes five waves up off the wave [iv] low at 51.40.
Todays highs have now reached the 38.2% Fib retracement level as shown on the 4hr chart.
And of course the news is all over this rally like a rash.
Seems like they have completely forgotten the crash that happened only a few short weeks ago!
Oil Rises 18% In Best January On Record
The piece goes on to say;
“A break through $55 in WTI and $65 in Brent would be a very bullish signal
for these and could be the catalyst for more significant upside,”
This market looks to be putting in a top,
at the very least a wave A high as per the alternate count.
Monday;
we should see the turn begin next week.
Watch for a five wave move lower off this high.
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US 10 yr Treasuries.
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The 10YR has dropped in a sharp impulsive fashion today.
The price is back below the trend channel line,
and it looks like we are on the way to a five wave decline in wave ‘i’ of (iii).
A break of 121.05 next week will confirm that wave (iii) has begun.
But for the next few sessions we need to see wave ‘i’ and ‘ii’ complete a lower high and an impulse wave to the downside.
Monday;
watch for wave ‘i’ to continue lower in five waves.
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SILVER
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Silver has moved off the high in three waves to create wave ‘a’ down.
Wave ‘b’ was short and sweet,
but it too was in three waves.
So this correction in wave (ii) is lining up as a flat 3,3,5 structure.
Wave ‘c’ should fall in 5 waves to meet the rising trend channel line again at about 15.60.
Monday;
Watch for wave ‘c’ down to continue.
If the correction continues to unfold as quickly as this,
then wave (ii) should complete next week.
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S&P 500.
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The S&P is failing at the 78.6 retracement also this evening.
The price is closing below that level now.
The question is,
do we drop impulsively off these highs or not.
We have a solid support level at the previous fourth wave at 2629.
If this level is broken next week,
then I think we can safely call a top in place for wave ‘2’.
Interestingly enough,
The daily MACD line created an even higher extreme in this second wave bounce
than it did at the all time high last September.
And now the price is approaching the 200MA from below on the daily chart.
We have a continuous divergence in momentum on the 4hr chart also.
So everything is lining up against this rally now.
Monday;
Next week I remain on the lookout for a five wave move lower to break 2630 again.
Thats our signal.
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Thanks everyone.
I hope you have an enjoyable weekend.
I myself am looking forward to bringing the dog for a long walk
deep into the forest for a couple of hours.
I can recharge my batteries in there!
God’s speed,
Enda.
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