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Hi everyone.
Bitcoin broke $9000 today.
6 weeks ago it traded above $19000,
and the world thought it was a steal at that price!
Oh how the mighty fall.
What happens over the next two weeks is going to set the stage for the rest of the year in bitcoin,
And pretty much the whole crypto currency realm.
If the price finds support above 5490,
Then we will see a renewed rally
However,
If that level breaks,
I think you can kiss goodbye to this whole fad!
This thing may well just become a momentum playground for the futures market.
The price is now down 55% at the lows of the session today.
And I dont think we are anywhere near done yet.
Remember,
Crude oil fell 84% into its 2016 low.
and crude is actually something we have a genuine use for in society!
Bitcoin, not so much!
I will be interested in buying bitcoin when nobody is talking about it anymore.
and that could well be in the single figure price range.
Ok,
Enough jawboning,
down to business.
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UPCOMING RISK EVENTS:
USD: Average Hourly Earnings m/m, Non-Farm Employment Change, Unemployment Rate.
EUR: Spanish Unemployment Change.
GBP: Construction PMI.
JPY: n/a.
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EURUSD
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[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: long term bearish
Wave Structure: Topping in wave [B] black.
Long term wave count: lower in wave [C] black.
EURUSD is on target to break out of the corrective price action playing out over the last few days.
The price has broken the previous wave 'b' high,
And is soon to break through the recent high at 1.2538.
This action all but confirms the operating wave count,
And we are now likely to see a run up to the 1.28 region to close out the larger pattern.
Tomorrow;
wave 'iii' pink should continue higher into about 1.2575
Wave (iii) has a minimum target at 1.2650.
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GBPUSD
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[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: short below parity in wave (5).
Wave Structure: continuing impulsive structure to the downside in wave (5)
Long term wave count: decline in wave (5) blue, below parity
I am still on the fence regarding the correct interpretation for cable.
the running flat correction in wave 'ii' pink still has merit,
This wave count will not be invalidated until the price breaks 1.4344.
If the high breaks,
Then the next likely target for a top in wave (c) brown lies in the region of 1.4700,
Where the price meets the upper trendline again.
tomorrow;
A break of 1.4344 will trigger the alternate wave count.
Then wave '2' grey should correct the price back into the rising trendline.
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USDJPY
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[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: LONG
Wave Structure: rally in wave [C]
Long term wave count: wave [C] is underway, upside to above 136.00
USDJPY is now on the brink of turning down and triggering the alternate wave count shown on the 4hr and daily chart.
108.27 is the first level of interest.
If the price falls through that level,
That will signal that a larger decline into the 103.00 area is on the cards.
a break of 107.29 will confirm the alternate wave count.
At that point It will be a case of sit and wait for the next long term trend change signal.
tomorrow;
My eyes are firmly fixed on the three wave rise off the recent low at 108.27
And a possible further break of that level.
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DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS
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[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: market topping process completing
Wave Structure: Impulsive 5 wave structure, topping in an all time high.
Long term wave count: topping in wave (5)
The DOW has now possibly completed five waves down
with a further break of the wave '3' low today.
The price has so far recovered quite erratically off the lows.
I have labelled the rise as wave 'a' and 'b' of a three wave recovery in wave 'ii' pink.
The 4hr chart shows the momentum indicators have dipped into the oversold territory for the first time in 3 months.
If a momentum shift is occurring,
Then the RSI should remain below the centreline for a few weeks to start.
As a reaction to the record positive momentum over the last year or so.
The next level of interest on the 4hr chart is the 200MA
Which lies at 25500 at the moment.
A break of that line could shift the market to a negative bias at least in the medium term.
The price is now down below the 50MA,
Lets see if wave 'ii' holds below the 50MA and turns down again.
tomorrow;
Wave 'c' of 'ii' should carry higher into about 26400
That will create an elliott wave signal off the high.
And;
A further break of todays low at 26018 cash will signal that a larger decline could be on the cards.
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GOLD
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[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: Long to a new all time high above 1827.
Wave Structure: Impulse structure to a new high.
Long term wave count: wave (3) above 1666.
I have shown a slightly different interpretation for wave [ii].
Wave (b) blue may be completing a complex expanded flat.
The rise off the yesterdays lows is in three waves and should be retraced fully.
A further decline below 1334 will confirm this count.
The larger wave [ii] calls for a decline into 1319 to complete.
At that point GOLD becomes a major long term buy in my book.
Tomorrow;
Wave (c) blue should begin and carry the price into the lower trend channel over the next few sessions.
watch for a break of 1334.
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U.S CRUDE OIL
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[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: topping in a large correction wave [4].
Wave Structure: Double combination higher in wave [4] red.
Long term wave count: wave [4] target $63 - $70
Wave 'iii' pink is now well and truly underway
with a solid rally in wave '3' of 'iii' today.
Wave 'iii' should carry above 66.58 to complete.
With the larger wave (iii) grey projected to a minimum of 67.35.
The price must not break 64.40 in this interpretation.
Tomorrow;
watch for a slight correction in wave '4' black.
Ideally, wave 'iii' should break above 66.66 before completing.
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