Good evening all.
Here is an eye popping piece from the market ticker today,
No, GDP Did Not Advance 2.1%
If the economy is actually contracting, then how the hell is the market blowing to all time highs!
Beats me that’s for sure, the madness of crowds is sublime!
Down to business.
EURUSD.
EURUSD 1hr.
EURUSD 4hr.
EURUSD daily.
EURUSD has risen in three waves off the wave ‘iii’ low at 1.0990.
In terms of the main wave count,
this can be viewed as all or part of a correction in wave ‘iv’ pink as shown.
Or,
in terms of the alternate count,
this could be the beginning of a rally in wave ‘C’ which is shown circled in red.
Both wave counts were looking for a rise to occur,
so I can’t rule out either count yet.
Tomorrows action may well decide for us which count is more accurate.
Tomorrow;
wave ‘iv’ pink should hold below 1.1085,
if that level is broken in a five wave rally,
then I will switch to the alternate count.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD 1hr.
GBPUSD 4hr.
GBPUSD daily.
Cable spiked higher today which has ruled out last nights more bearish count.
This action has tilted the odds back in favor of the larger wave (ii) idea.
and this outlook is now the main wave count.
Wave ‘c’ should continue higher to break 1.3283 at a minimum to complete the correction in wave (ii).
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘c’ of (ii) to trace out a five wave rally from here.
Wave ‘b’ completed a triangle at 1.2977,
so that low must hold for now.
USDJPY.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY daily.
Things are getting frustrating in USDJPY these days.
The drop overnight continued throughout the day today and this forces a rethink of the decline in wave [ii].
The action still counts best as a correction off the high.
With wave (c) of [ii] tracing out a five wave decline into the lows.
The action was quite choppy today,
while only barely making a fresh new low below the previous wave ‘iii’.
This suggests downside momentum is failing now and wave (c) should complete soon.
The price has broken the 62% retracement level today
and then spiked higher off that level this evening.
So the turn higher mat be closer than you think.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (i) of [ii] to begin with a break of 109.26.
DOW JONES.
DOW 1hr.
DOW 4hr
DOW daily.
Stocks are drifting sideways today in quite a corrective manner.
I am still looking for a complete five wave pattern lower off the high in wave (i).
So todays action may be a triangle in wave ‘iv’ of (i) as shown.
The triangle does need a few more internal subdivisions to complete correctly.
But if this count is correct,
then it suggests another drop in wave ‘v’ to come to complete the pattern.
The alternate count shows wave (i) complete at todays low,
but it involves a failed fifth wave.
So this interpretation is less likely.
Tomorrow;
watch for a continued range contraction in a possible wave ‘iv’.
Price should hold below 28966.
GOLD
GOLD 1hr.
GOLD 4hr.
GOLD daily.
Gold did rise slightly today but did not threaten the high labelled wave ‘b’ so far.
A break of that 1588 high would move the action closer to a bullish interpretation,
but until that happens,
I think we can stick with the idea that wave ‘c’ should fall into support at 1535 to complete wave (ii).
And then we can concentrate on wave (iii) up.
I think the most fitting bullish count at the moment is a series of 1,2 waves building off the low at 1535.
Tomorrow;
1588 should hold.
watch for wave ‘c’ of (ii) to drop back into support in five waves.
CRUDE OIL.
CRUDE OIL 1hr.
CRUDE OIL 4hr.
CRUDE OIL daily.
Todays new low is still counted as wave ‘b’ of (ii).
So wave (ii) is now considered a running flat correction.
And wave ‘c’ of (ii) should rally back above 54.36 to complete the pattern.
There is an interesting alternate count developing also.
It views the whole decline off the high as a developing wave [i] down.
So this correction would be occurring in wave (iv) of [i].
And wave (v) should create another drop to complete a five wave decline.
Tomorrow;
watch for wave ‘c’ to hit 54.36 at a minimum,
before we see another drop to begin wave (iii).
S&P 500.
S&P 500 1hr
S&P 500 4hr
S&P 500 daily.
The S&P is rallying off the lows this evening in wave ‘c’ of (ii).
This correction should complete a bearish lower high tomorrow.
The minimum target for wave ‘c’ of (ii) lies at 3293,
which is the high of wave ‘a’.
The alternate count for wave (ii) is also possible,
in this case the price will turn lower before reaching the high at 3293.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (ii) to complete before the end of the session.
That should complete a bearish lower high at wave (ii).
Wave ‘i’ of (iii) should fall back below 3223 early next week.
This will begin a larger decline which should take out 3180 at a minimum.
SILVER.
SILVER 1hr
SILVER 4hr.
SILVER daily.
Silver created a solid five wave rally off Wednesdays lows.
This action has renewed the bullish outlook for wave [iii] up.
It is now likely that wave (c) and wave [ii] are complete.
And this new rally should begin a larger run higher in wave [iii].
Todays high is labelled wave ‘i’ of (i).
the price is falling again this evening in a possible wave ‘ii’ of (i).
Wave ‘ii’ must complete above 17.37 and then rally back back above 18.34.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘ii’ to complete a three wave correction above 17.37.
Wave ‘iii’ of (i) should break 18.34 again early next week.
U.S 10YR.
US 10YR 1hr.
US 10YR 4hr.
US 10YR daily.
The rally in bonds will not give up!
Todays new high is really putting pressure on the wave [ii] idea.
It is possible that wave (c) of [ii] has extended to complete a five wave rally,
rather than a three wave structure as shown previously.
If that is the case,
then wave (i) must now decline in a sustained fashion to put the bearish outlook back on track.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘i’ of (i) to fall back below 130.40.
We need a five wave decline next week to affirm the bearish count.