[vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator border_width="5"][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]
Good evening all.
Hope the day has been kind to you!
There is the possibility that the DOW is tracing out a five wave pattern to the downside off the recent all time high.
There are large scale implications for the market if that pattern plays out.
more on that later,
As for the USD,
The ongoing large degree correction may continue for another month or so
if the alternate wave count in USDJPY gets triggered.
This will simply postpone the rally that will be brought about by a a rush to 'safety' when the house of cards stock market comes tumbling down,
As it will most definitely do!
[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]
UPCOMING RISK EVENTS:
USD: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, Chicago PMI, Crude Oil Inventories, FOMC Statement, Federal Funds Rate.
EUR: CPI Flash Estimate y/y, German Retail Sales m/m.
GBP: n/a
JPY: n/a
[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]
[vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator border_width="5"][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]
EURUSD
[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator border_width="5"][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width="2/3"][vc_custom_heading text="30 min" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text]
[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][vc_column width="1/3"][vc_custom_heading text="4 Hours" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text]
[/vc_column_text][vc_custom_heading text="Daily" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text]
[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: long term bearish
Wave Structure: Topping in wave [B] black.
Long term wave count: lower in wave [C] black.
After correcting in a three wave form over the last week,
EURUSD spiked higher today in a possible impulse wave off the lows.
I have labelled the short term action as wave 'i' up,
and wave 'ii' ongoing.
wave 'ii' must complete in three waves above 1.2335
to remain valid as an impulse wave.
While a break of 1.2454, the wave 'i' high, will signal that wave 'iii' of (iii) has begun.
A break above 1.2538 will confirm the larger short term bullish wave count.
Tomorrow;
watch for 1.2335 to hold,
If 1.2454 breaks in wave 'iii' then we should see a powerful rally above 1.2654.
[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]
[vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator border_width="5"][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]
GBPUSD
[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator border_width="5"][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width="2/3"][vc_custom_heading text="30 min" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text]
[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][vc_column width="1/3"][vc_custom_heading text="4 Hours" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text]
[/vc_column_text][vc_custom_heading text="Daily" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text]
[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: short below parity in wave (5).
Wave Structure: continuing impulsive structure to the downside in wave (5)
Long term wave count: decline in wave (5) blue, below parity
Todays bounce in cable is hinting that the alternate wave count is the correct interpretation.
I have shown the alternate count circled in red.
It views the recent decline as only wave 'iv' of the larger five wave pattern.
The decline has only traced out three waves so far,
That fact also hints at the alternate count.
For now I remain on the bearish side with a possible series of 1,2 waves to the downside.
The price must decline in wave '3' grey to remain bearish in the short term.
Tomorrow;
A break of 1.4288 will trigger the alternate wave count.
[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]
[vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator border_width="5"][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]
USDJPY
[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator border_width="5"][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width="2/3"][vc_custom_heading text="30 min" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text]
[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][vc_column width="1/3"][vc_custom_heading text="4 Hours" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text]
[/vc_column_text][vc_custom_heading text="Daily" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text]
[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: LONG
Wave Structure: rally in wave [C]
Long term wave count: wave [C] is underway, upside to above 136.00
USDJPY remains on a knife edge.
I have shown a possible contracting triangle wave '4' pink
as the best interpretation for the recent price action.
this wave count allows for another drop in wave 'v' brown to complete wave (c) green.
Wave (c) green must complete above key support at 107.29.
If that level breaks is is back to the drawing board for USDJPY!
I have shown another short term bearish wave count on the daily chart,
It shows the correction in wave '2' orange as ongoing.
This is now the alternate count if 107.29 breaks.
Tomorrow;
107.29 is still the level to watch,
If that breaks the next possible target lies at about 1.0330.
[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]
[vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator border_width="5"][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]
DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS
[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator border_width="5"][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width="2/3"][vc_custom_heading text="30 min" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text]
[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][vc_column width="1/3"][vc_custom_heading text="4 Hours" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text]
[/vc_column_text][vc_custom_heading text="Daily" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text]
[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: market topping process completing
Wave Structure: Impulsive 5 wave structure, topping in an all time high.
Long term wave count: topping in wave (5)
This weeks action has seen the first meaningful decline in stocks in over a year!
That is one heck of an achievement.
It is going to take something bigger to break the back of those relentless bulls,
But,
Something bigger is definitely on the cards now!
The decline off the high is possible to read as a developing five wave pattern to the downside,
The gap lower this morning can be viewed as an extension lower in wave '3' blue.
This wave count calls for a consolidation in a possible fourth wave now.
And then a further break of initial support at 25940 to complete a five wave pattern.
If that price action occurs,
The next thing to look for will be a three wave rally in wave 'ii' pink
to create a large elliott wave signal off the high
And the possibility for an even larger decline in wave 'iii' pink.
This is all speculation as yet,
but, so far so good for the beginning of a new bear market!
Tomorrow;
watch for a three wave correction in wave '4' blue.
wave '4' must now rise above 26457 the wave '1' low.
[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]
[vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator border_width="5"][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]
GOLD
[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator border_width="5"][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width="2/3"][vc_custom_heading text="30 min" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text]
[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][vc_column width="1/3"][vc_custom_heading text="4 Hours" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text]
[/vc_column_text][vc_custom_heading text="Daily" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text]
[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: Long to a new all time high above 1827.
Wave Structure: Impulse structure to a new high.
Long term wave count: wave (3) above 1666.
Todays low hit 1334.76 in the cash market.
Off that low the price spiked in a nice impulsive looking form,
I have labeled that rally as wave 'i' pink,
With wave 'ii' retracing close to the low of the day.
It is now possible that wave [ii] green is complete,
And the price is setting up for a large rally in wave [iii] green.
1334.76 must hold for this short term bullish pattern to remain valid.
If we see another break above 1348,
that will add significant weight to this bullish interpretation.
Tomorrow;
1334.76 must hold from here,
watch for a further higher low to kick off wave 'iii'.
[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]
[vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator border_width="5"][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]
U.S CRUDE OIL
[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator border_width="5"][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width="2/3"][vc_custom_heading text="30 min" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text]
[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][vc_column width="1/3"][vc_custom_heading text="4 Hours" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text]
[/vc_column_text][vc_custom_heading text="Daily" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text]
[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: topping in a large correction wave [4].
Wave Structure: Double combination higher in wave [4] red.
Long term wave count: wave [4] target $63 - $70
Continued declines in crude today have ruled out the idea of a contracting triangle in wave (iv) grey.
the pattern off the high remains in three waves,
So, the structure counts best as a zigzag correction lower in wave (iv) grey.
The high of wave (i) grey lies at 63.67,
If the price declines below that point it will trigger the alternate wave count
which views the recent high as the final top in a primary degree wave [4] red.
The alternate wave count also implies that the market is about to turn back down in a very large way.
So this is worth keeping an eye on from here!
Tomorrow;
wave (v) grey should begin with a higher low wave 'i' and 'ii' pattern above 63.72.
[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]