[vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator border_width="5"][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]
(I did not get a chance to record a video this weekend, I will post a midweek update instead)
There is not one person living today that has seen a period of overvaluation such as the one we are living through right now.
And there are few people still alive who witnessed a crash similar to the one we are about to experience.
The market hit such an extreme level last week
that it brought the long term valuation metrics I follow
To a level higher than the property bubble highs of 2007,
the DOTCOM bubble highs of 1999,
the cocaine highs of 1987,
the space age highs of 1966,
and the roaring 20's highs of 1929.
This bubble that we are living through
is the most over-valued extreme in history - bar none!
And the market is now trading at 3X the long run historical average for those valuation metrics.
If that wasn't bad enough,
People and corporations have never been so leveraged in history.
As a society,
we are in very bad shape to weather the depression.
Also on this ocassion,
there will not be large scale government intervention to save failing banks,
or insurance companies,
and whoever else is laid low in the coming depression and the incredible web of counter party risk that exists right now.
The political will does not exist anymore.
Plus,
politicians have an aversion to sticking their necks out
when the public has their knives sharp and ready.
This bubble is so large,
And the crash will be so devastating,
That my major worry over the 10 years is not the coming depression,
It is the coming war after the coming depression!
there are going to be a whole lot of angry people knocking around,
Vile, reprehensible political movements will grow on the back of those bad actors,
And they will demand revenge through blood.
This is the trend across human history
and I dont expect any different this time around.
So while the world is enjoying the dying moments of this epic orgy of speculation,
You should take this the time to ready yourself for the tumult that is upon us,
and after that,
the opportunity that is to come.
Make sure you are still solvent when valuations are in the exact opposite position as they are now.
When stocks like AMZN stock will sell for a p/e of 5,
rather than the insane 324 X its sits at today.
The time is coming.
[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]
UPCOMING RISK EVENTS:
USD: Core PCE Price Index m/m, Personal Spending m/m.
EUR: n/a
GBP: n/a
JPY: n/a
[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]
[vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator border_width="5"][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]
EURUSD
[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator border_width="5"][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width="2/3"][vc_custom_heading text="30 min" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text]
[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][vc_column width="1/3"][vc_custom_heading text="4 Hours" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text]
[/vc_column_text][vc_custom_heading text="Daily" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text]
[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: long term bearish
Wave Structure: Topping in wave [B] black.
Long term wave count: lower in wave [C] black.
EURUSD has two viable interpretations right now.
The larger trend in wave 'C' red is coming to and end,
That much is sure.
But the final wave [v] of '5' may still have a another run up left in the tank.
Last weeks high at 1.2538 is labelled as wave (i) brown,
Wave (ii) may have completed today,
This suggests that another rally in wave (iii) will carry the price to a new high above 1.2538.
If the price rises above 1.2538 it will confirm this short term bullish count.
The alternate wave count shows wave [v] green as complete at the high.
if the price breaks below 1.2220 it will confirm the alternate wave count.
For tomorrow;
watch for another higher low above 1.2336 at wave (ii) brown,
This could signal wave (iii) has begun.
[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]
[vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator border_width="5"][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]
GBPUSD
[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator border_width="5"][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width="2/3"][vc_custom_heading text="30 min" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text]
[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][vc_column width="1/3"][vc_custom_heading text="4 Hours" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text]
[/vc_column_text][vc_custom_heading text="Daily" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text]
[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: short below parity in wave (5).
Wave Structure: continuing impulsive structure to the downside in wave (5)
Long term wave count: decline in wave (5) blue, below parity
Cable did continue its decline today in a possible wave '3' grey,
The decline has not developed impulsively just yet,
I need to see five waves down and a break of support at 1.3856 to call a possible top in place.
If the price continues to drop into the trend channel tomorrow,
and we see a clear five wave structure,
The probability of a significant high in place will rise dramatically.
And a good opportunity should develop to the downside soon after.
For tomorrow;
Watch for that continued decline into the trend channel.
1.3856 is the price level to watch.
[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]
[vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator border_width="5"][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]
USDJPY
[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator border_width="5"][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width="2/3"][vc_custom_heading text="30 min" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text]
[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][vc_column width="1/3"][vc_custom_heading text="4 Hours" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text]
[/vc_column_text][vc_custom_heading text="Daily" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text]
[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: LONG
Wave Structure: rally in wave [C]
Long term wave count: wave [C] is underway, upside to above 136.00
USDJPY is still too close to the invalidation line at 107.29 for comfort!
The price seems to have stalled its decline,
But the wave structure has not developed impulsively off the lows yet.
Initial resistance lies at 111.22, the previous 4th wave high.
A break of that level will shift the momentum higher again on the 4hr chart.
For tomorrow;
108.28 must hold and the price must stage a rally to save the bullish stance.
[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]
[vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator border_width="5"][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]
DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS
[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width="2/3"][vc_custom_heading text="30 min" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text]
[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][vc_column width="1/3"][vc_custom_heading text="4 Hours" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text]
[/vc_column_text][vc_custom_heading text="Daily" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text]
[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: market topping process completing
Wave Structure: Impulsive 5 wave structure, topping in an all time high.
Long term wave count: topping in wave (5)
The DOW has declined about 170 points off last weeks all time highs in a possible five wave pattern.
Its way too early to call it now,
but should a larger five wave structure develop in pink labels over the coming week,
Then we can talk about a top in place again.
The 4hr RSI is supportive of at least a good size correction from here
as a large bearish divergence is now visible off the recent extreme.
For tomorrow;
It is again time to watch the form of the decline from here.
This vertical rally has got to give soon!
lets see how this week develops
[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]
[vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]
GOLD
[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width="2/3"][vc_custom_heading text="30 min" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text]
[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][vc_column width="1/3"][vc_custom_heading text="4 Hours" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text]
[/vc_column_text][vc_custom_heading text="Daily" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text]
[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: Long to a new all time high above 1827.
Wave Structure: Impulse structure to a new high.
Long term wave count: wave (3) above 1666.
Further weakness today in GOLD has added weight to the new wave count introduced last week.
So far the decline off the recent wave [i] high has traced out three waves in (a) and (b)
With wave (c) under way in a possible five wave decline.
This pattern will complete a 3,3,5 flat correction lower in wave [ii] green.
FOr tomorrow;
I expect that wave (c) will continue lower into support at 1332
which is the previous fourth wave.
Once complete, I will be looking for a rally to begin wave [iii] green.
The next leg up in wave [iii] should be explosive!
[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]
[vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]
U.S CRUDE OIL
[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width="2/3"][vc_custom_heading text="30 min" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text]
[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][vc_column width="1/3"][vc_custom_heading text="4 Hours" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text]
[/vc_column_text][vc_custom_heading text="Daily" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text]
[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: topping in a large correction wave [4].
Wave Structure: Double combination higher in wave [4] red.
Long term wave count: wave [4] target $63 - $70
I have altered the short term wave count slightly today.
It now shows a possible contracting triangle developing in wave (iv) grey.
The price must continue to contract in range
and create one more higher low above 64.98 in wave 'e' to confirm this count.
The potential at the completion of wave (iv)
is for a rally into the $70 region to complete the whole correction in wave [4] red.
The alternate count shows wave [4] red as complete at the recent high,
And a break of key support at 62.78 will confirm this view.
For now, I remain bullish in crude.
Tomorrow;
watch for 64.98 to hold
and a three wave rise in wave 'd' to complete at the trendline.
[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]