Good evening to one and all.

The Lord’s Blessing’s to you all again tonight.

EURUSD.

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

You know,
The initial drop into wave ‘a’ does not have to be beautiful,
but it must be a three wave pattern and I think we have at least a hint at a possible corrective decline after todays action,

Wave ‘a’ must break the previous wave ‘iv’ low at 1.0765.
That is the minimum target in order to give a confidence boost to the idea that we are turning lower into wave (a) at last.

Monday;
watch for the high at wave [i] to hold at 1.0928.
1.0765 if the signal level to indicate wave (a) is underway.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1hr.

GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

If we view wave ‘iv’ as an expanded flat correction,
then it does make a ittle more sence of the action this week.
Then we can see a final high for wave ‘v’ of (c) at 1.2434 and the price is ever so close to doing that now.
The internal pattern of wave ‘v’ is close to completing a five wave pattern higher,
one lsat push above 1.2434 will do it.
And then I am free to concentrate on wave [c] down again.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘v’ of (c) of [b] to complete and wave (i) down to take over by the end of Mondays trade.

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 4hr.

USDJPY daily.

Im afraid I am not any closer to solving this mystery in USDJPY tonight.
The action has continued along its possible contracting triangle path.
And this evening we have come to a complete stop more or less on the centre oscillation line of that triangle at 129.90.

I am going to suggest again that the direction we break out of this contraction will decide the correct wave count here.
A break above 130.63 will signal that the bullish interpretation is correct.
And a break below 129.05 again will signal the alternate count for wave [v] is correct.

Monday;
Lets see which way this breaks in order to confirm the counts.
I would like to be able to rule out the bearish count on Monday if the action breaks higher.

DOW JONES.

DOW 1hr.

DOW 4hr

DOW daily.

I am disappointed that wave ‘ii’ did not complete early this week in order to confirm the bearish count for wave (iii) down.
At the moment the market is sitting just above the 78.6% retracement level of wave ‘i’.
and we are closing at the highs of the week.
I am biting my nails here to be honest.
The pattern in wave ‘i’ and ‘ii’ is about as clear as I could hope for.
But the reversal has not appeared yet at least.

On the plus side;
The market is still making a lower high below the wave (ii) top at 34270.
And the rally into wave ‘ii’ is a pretty solid three wave corrective pattern.
At this point I think we can say that the trend channel is closed at the top of wave ‘c’.
the correction has reached the 78.6% retracement level.
Also the price has met the declining trend line off the previous two second waves.

Monday;
Watch for wave ‘ii’ to hold below that 34370 high at wave (ii) blue.
I want to see this third wave down begin immediately!
I will have to do some soul searching next week if the market manages to break that wave (ii) high again.
If that happens,
it is possible that wave (ii) blue has control here instead.
It has been the case over the last few moths that each new week was pivotal for the patterns.
This week is no different.
the market must prove a third wave down next week.

GOLD

GOLD 1hr.

GOLD 4hr.

GOLD daily.

Is this a mini head and shoulders pattern to end the week?

Nothing has happened this week to confirm a top is in place,
but we do have a completed pattern into the high at least.
As always,
I am looking to that previous wave ‘iv’ low at 1895 to signal that wave (a) is underway.
If we see a break of that level early next week then I think we will be on track to see a bigger corrective pattern build over the following weeks in wave [ii].
First thing first though.
we got to start taking out some lows here.

Monday;
Watch for wave (a) down to take control and begin to break support levels within the previous rally.
I will look to the previous fourth wave low at 1770 as an initial target for wave [ii] once we do confirm this pattern has begun.

CRUDE OIL.

CRUDE OIL 1hr.

CRUDE OIL 4hr.

CRUDE OIL daily.

Crude failed to make a new high today and completely rejected the wave ‘v’ level by reversing in quite a sharp manner today.
The wave (i) count still holds this evening because of that move.
The price has stopped short of breaking the wave ‘iv’ level at 78.44 though,
so we should see a break of that level on Monday in order to signal that wave (i) is underway.

Monday;
A clear break below 78.44 will open up the lower target for wave (i) at 72.60.
That is the next significant support in the structure.
Wave (i) of [iii] should find a low near that low.

S&P 500.

S&P 500 1hr

S&P 500 4hr

S&P 500 daily.

The incessant grind higher this week has been frustrating to say the least.
to watch the market push towards invalidating the bearish pattern by creeping towards that 4138 high was a lesson in perseverance!

I am not out of the danger zone by any means tonight,
but the fact that we are still holding this lower high
and the market seems to be rejecting the highs of the week tonight is a ray of hope for wave (ii).

I have switched to another possible count for this wave (ii) correction this evening also.
It is a complex combination correction with each internal wave comprising a three wave pattern.
the top this evening compeltes wave ‘c’ as a three wave structure.
And the overall pattern in wave (ii) has filled a traditional channel.

Monday;
This correction must end immediately on Monday in order to remain valid as wave (ii).
I want to see wave ‘i’ of (iii) retrace most of the rally into this high.
That gives us a tall order of 3800 as the target for wave ‘i’ of (iii).
Lets see if the early trade can fall further to begin the reversal in wave ‘i’.

SILVER.

SILVER 1hr

SILVER 4hr.

SILVER daily.

I am going to reserve judgement on wave ‘5’ until I see more of this pattern unfold.
Todays actoin is again throwing a spanner in the works to the new wave count.
I can label this decline as wave [ii] of ‘5’.
but that requires a rally to begin early next week to confirm wave [iii] has begun.

given the way that this market is trading over the last month,
I really can’t call the next move with any certainty.
So I will wait to let the pattern unveil itself.

Monday;
If wave [ii] is in at todays lows,
wave (i) of [iii] must turn higher again to begin to take out the previous highs.