Bon soir mes amis.
EURUSD.
EURUSD 1hr.
EURUSD 4hr.
EURUSD daily.
Another day without a decision in EURUSD!
The market is very quietly drifting lower for the last few sessions.
with the price simply hugging the lower channel line,
and still no break of initial support at 1.0982.
These few facts lined up together do tend to point towards the alternate count right now.
But I will need to see a rally off the lows in five waves to push me over to that alternate count for wave ‘C’ blue.
Tomorrow;
The evidence is starting to shift towards that alternate count now.
And the trigger line for the alternate count lies at 1.1086.
So if we see a spike above the level before the ed of the week,
that will set us up for a rally in wave ‘C’ above 1.1240 at a minimum.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD 1hr.
GBPUSD 4hr.
GBPUSD daily.
The action in cable is confusing matters this week.
The price has moved lower today and is close to breaking 1.2954 again.
Because of the continued decline this week,
I have switched to that alternate count,
which shows a possible decline in wave ‘iii’ now underway.
There is a very strong candidate for the alternate count now though,
which will allow for a rally in wave ‘c’ back up to 1.3280.
This shows an expanded flat wave (ii) and is shown circled in red.
A bounce off the lower trend channel line will favor that alternate count.
Tomorrow;
If wave ‘iii’ is now underway,
then price must accelerate lower to break support at 1.2903 over the coming days.
Lets see what happens at the lower trend line later this week.
This will indicate which count is more likely.
USDJPY.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY daily.
USDJPY has bounced off the lows created after yesterdays gap to complete wave ‘v’ and (c).
The action is promising,
but it has not confirmed a turn up into wave (i) yet.
A break of 109.64 at the previous fourth wave will do just that.
Tomorrow;
The low at 108.73 must hold as wave (i) up develops.
I want to see wave ‘iii’ of (i) break 109.64.
DOW JONES.
DOW 1hr.
DOW 4hr
DOW daily.
The DOW has bounced today in a possible fourth wave correction higher today.
The action is overlapping and in three waves into todays highs.
And the choppy action this morning looks like a small triangle ‘b’ wave within wave ‘iv’ pink.
If wave ‘iv’ is now done,
then we should see a further decline tomorrow into wave ‘v’ of (i).
And I would like to see wave ‘v’ break below the low of wave ‘iii’ at a minimum.
That level lies at about 28450.
Tomorrow;
This impulse wave lower is still a work in progress at the moment,
so we need more downside to build a stronger case for a trend change.
Watch for wave ‘iv’ to complete below 28900 on the upper end.
Wave ‘v’ should begin tomorrow.
A break of 28120 in wave ‘v’ would strengthen the case for a top in place at the recent highs.
GOLD
GOLD 1hr.
GOLD 4hr.
GOLD daily.
Gold is falling today against the previous bullish interpretation,
which probably rules out the idea of a rally in a third wave now underway.
This bullish idea now becomes the alternate count as shown.
If the price turns higher tomorrow and breaks 1588 again,
then wave ‘iii’ up is the more likely count.
For the moment the main count is allowing for a decline in wave ‘c’
to finish the larger wave (ii).
This correction should complete at the 50% retracement level at 1530 or so.
Tomorrow.
Watch for wave ‘c’ of (ii) to continue lower.
A break of 1546 will confirm wave ‘c’ is underway.
CRUDE OIL.
CRUDE OIL 1hr.
CRUDE OIL 4hr.
CRUDE OIL daily.
Crude oil is due a correction higher in wave (ii) after that brutal selloff into the recent low.
Todays rise is not very inspiring yet,
and I don’t think it is enough to qualify as a full wave (ii) correction either.
It is likely that wave ‘a’ of (ii) is now underway.
The action is very corrective and counts as a three wave form for sure.
Wave ‘b’ and ‘c’ are left to complete wave (ii).
and this should carry the price up to towards that initial target area at 55.90 again.
tomorrow;
Watch for wave to complete and wave ‘b’ to hold above 52.15.
Wave ‘c’ should be done by the end of the week at this rate.
S&P 500.
S&P 500 1hr
S&P 500 4hr
S&P 500 daily.
The rally in the S&P today should be the beginning of a second wave correction to a lower high.
It looks like todays rally is in three waves.
This suggests wave (ii) will be a flat correction with an internal 3,3,5 pattern.
Wave ‘b’ should fall again tomorrow in three waves.
And then wave ‘c’ should push up to that trend channel line again in five waves to complete the correction.
Tomorrow;
Wave (ii) must trace out three waves and hold below 3337.
Watch for wave ‘b’ of (ii) to fall again tomorrow down to about 3250.
SILVER.
SILVER 1hr
SILVER 4hr.
SILVER daily.
Silver took a massive hit today which ruled out the bullish count.
This action has forced me to revert to the previous idea of a larger wave [ii].
This sharp decline today is in line with a drop in wave (c) of [ii].
Wave (c) should trace out a five wave pattern as shown.
As it stands this evening,
the decline in wave (c) has almost retraced 62% of wave [i].
and we are damn close to filling that trend channel surrounding wave [ii].
Tomorrow;
The bullish case for silver still stands.
This larger pattern in wave [ii] is almost complete.
And once we see a bounce above 18.00 again,
that will signal wave (i) has begun.
U.S 10YR.
US 10YR 1hr.
US 10YR 4hr.
US 10YR daily.
Bonds have dropped off the upper trend line today which points to a possible turn into wave (i).
The price must continue to drop over the coming days to confirm this idea.
The first significant level lies at 128.89.
Wave (i) must break this level at least in order to get serious about wave [iii] down.
I would prefer if wave (i) fell further and broke 127.87.
that action would retrace all of the previous wave (c) rally,
and would set us up nicely for a larger decline into wave [iii].
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (i) down to keep falling in five waves for the remainder of the week.
131.15 must hold.