Hello all.
EURUSD.
EURUSD 1hr.
EURUSD 4hr.
EURUSD daily.
I am getting the distinct feeling that we will see a rapid spike higher soon in EURUSD.
The market is completely flat for the last week,
with a maximum range of about 40pips.
This is the type of action that suggests a loss of apetite for the downside,
and it is another hint in favor of the alternate count.
We have seen another day where the price has held above support at 109.82.
And another day without an acceleration lower into a third wave.
So,
at the moment,
I am fully expecting that alternate count to be triggered soon.
Tomorrow;
watch 1.1086 that level is key now.
If that level breaks I will switch to the alternate count.
Then I will look for the creation of a bullish higher low to signal wave ‘C’ has begun.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD 1hr.
GBPUSD 4hr.
GBPUSD daily.
As with EURUSD,
the short term count in cable is in limbo slightly!
Cable should be moving lower into a third wave down,
but the price has failed to confirm that bearish count yet.
The alternate count is still viable now.
And because the price is not moving into the downtrend in wave ‘iii’ of (iii),
I am prepared to switched back to that alternate count again.
If we see another push back above 1.3103,
that will favor the alternate count and we can prepare for a rally back to 1.3283 at a minimum to complete the larger wave (ii).
Tomorrow;
Watch for a break of 1.2900 and an acceleration lower to re affirm the bearish count.
1.3103 is the trigger level for the alternate count.
USDJPY.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY daily.
USDJPY is hanging on to the gains made yesterday.
The price has only created a three wave rally out of the wave [ii] low so far.
So the price must continue higher and break 109.64 to signal that wave (i) has begun.
And If that happens,
there should be a bullish opportunity coming outr way at the low of wave (ii),
which should lead to a larger rally in wave (iii) in a few weeks time.
Tomorrow;
Firstly we have to rally in five waves to complete wave (i) blue as shown.
108.73 should hold from now on.
DOW JONES.
DOW 1hr.
DOW 4hr
DOW daily.
The DOW rallied again today in this correction higher,
but the price has so far failed to break above the low of wave ‘i’ pink at 28966.
So this bearish count is still valid for the moment.
Another decline to break 28452 again will complete a five ewave decline in wave (i).
And then I will look for a bearish lower high to form in wave (ii) as shown.
There are a few ways to read the the recent action in a bearish manner,
but the most fitting pattern is shown.
I would like this pattern to run its course before switching to anohter interpretation.
At the moment this bearish wave count is hanging in the balance.
So we need more downside tomorrow to get serious about the prospects for a trend change.
Tomorrow;
Watch for 28966 to hold and wave ‘v’ of (i) to continue lower.
GOLD
GOLD 1hr.
GOLD 4hr.
GOLD daily.
The drop in Gold has halted today which is interesting in terms of the previous bullish count.
But the turn higher is not enough to turn bullish again just yet.
1588 is the key level is terms of the bullish interpretation,
so wave ‘c’ is still in force until that level is broken.
Tomorrow;
The overall three wave pattern requires that wave ‘c’ fall to 1535 at a minimum.
Watch for wave ‘c’ to turn lower again tomorrow.
CRUDE OIL.
CRUDE OIL 1hr.
CRUDE OIL 4hr.
CRUDE OIL daily.
Crude is following the script for wave (ii) so far today.
The price fell off Tuesdays wave ‘a’ high at 54.36.
And we are now holding above the low at 52.15 in wave ‘b’ now.
Wave ‘c’ should turn higher tomorrow and break above 54.36 again at aminimum.
The main level of interest for me lies at the previous fourth wave at 55.97.
So ideally wave ‘c’ should finish somewhere in that range.
Tomorrow;
Wave ‘c’ of (ii) should begin and break 54.36.
Wave (ii) should be complete before the end of the week.
If that happens,
Then next week could be heading lower in wave (iii).
S&P 500.
S&P 500 1hr
S&P 500 4hr
S&P 500 daily.
The S&P is holding onto the highs of wave ‘a’ this evening.
Wave ‘b’ is expected to drop into about 3250 tomorrow,
and then wave ‘c’ should complete the correction by Monday at the latest.
The bearish count is still on course,
and if the action I described actually transpires.
Then next week has the potential to be a hard down week.
It is possible to count todays high as wave (ii) complete also.
If the price falls sharply over the coming days and breaks 3200 again,
that will signal wave (iii) is already underway.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘b’ of (ii) to fall into 3250 at least over the coming days.
SILVER.
SILVER 1hr
SILVER 4hr.
SILVER daily.
I think Silver is very close to turn higher in a major way when wave (c) completes this week.
If this count is correct,
then wave (i) of [iii] will push back above 18.34 again in short order.
Also,
a rally in the metals should be mirrored with a commensurate decline in the stock market.
This is how the setup looks to me at the moment.
And in this scenario,
the next few weeks should get pretty exciting.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘v’ of (c) fall into the lower trend channel line at 17.20 and then I will be looking for wave (i) to begin.
U.S 10YR.
US 10YR 1hr.
US 10YR 4hr.
US 10YR daily.
Bonds have created a small lower high below the 131.15 level today.
I have labelled todays highs as wave ‘ii’,
with the expectation that wave ‘iii’ of (i) will drop back again later this week.
130.15 must hold for this count to remain valid,
so there is a very small margin for error now.
Tomorrow;
watch for wave ‘iii’ to begin tomorrow and price should fall towards 128.90 again in five waves.