Good evening one and all, back to the grindstone for another week!
EURUSD.
EURUSD 1hr.
EURUSD 4hr.
EURUSD daily.
EURUSD is still limping along the lower trendline of the declining trend channel today.
And because we have no reaction higher yet,
well I can’t really change the outlook I had on friday.
The alternate count which calls for a rally in wave ‘C’ is very viable,
but the action has not changed in its favor yet.
Apart from one thing;
I am willing to lower the trigger point for the alternate count 1.1084.
this marks the low of wave [a] in the alternate count.
If we see a rally back above that level it will be enough to switch counts.
Tomorrow;
Price must hold below 1.1084 for this count to remain valid.
watch for wave ‘iii’ to continue lower below support at 1.0982.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD 1hr.
GBPUSD 4hr.
GBPUSD daily.
Cable is inching towards the alternate count after another flat days trading.
Wave ‘c’ of (ii) is still the preferred count overall,
but if we do not see a rally to resume wave ‘c’ tomorrow that breaks the 1.3172 high.
that will favor the alternate count.
Once we get a break of 1.2954 again,
That action will signal wave ‘iii’ is underway,
we can then prepare for a further declines into wave ‘iii’ of (iii).
Tomorrow;
Wave ‘c’ must push above 1.3172 for this count to remain valid.
1.2954 must hold.
USDJPY.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY daily.
USDJPY gapped lower overnight and hit a fresh low in wave (c) at 108.73.
the decline off the recent high is still best counted as a (c) wave
which closes out the larger wave [ii].
Wave [i] up still dominates the overall trend at the moment.
And if wave [ii] is now completing,
then we can expect wave [iii] to begin this week.
Tomorrow;
We need to see a five wave rally off these lows in wave (i) to indicate that wave [iii] has begun.
Watch for wave (i) of [iii] to first push above 109.64 at wave ‘iv’ as a first hurdle.
DOW JONES.
DOW 1hr.
DOW 4hr
DOW daily.
Well that was an interesting turn around!
The DOW was off the all time high by about 900 points at todays lows.
This is starting to look like an impulsive decline now,
and todays drop is labelled wave ‘iii’ of (i)
going by the acceleration lower alone this definitely fits with a third wave.
There seems to be a consolidation around the lows this evening,
so this may be a corrective wave ‘iv’ already started as shown on the short term chart.
If the current count is correct,
then we should see a further decline throughout the week.
And if all goes well,
the structure off the high should develop into a larger wave (i) down by the end of the week.
Tomorrow;
The key level remains at the 28120 level of the previous fourth wave.
I would like to see wave (i) down hit that level before the inevitable correction higher begins in wave (ii).
GOLD
GOLD 1hr.
GOLD 4hr.
GOLD daily.
Gold is flat today after a spike higher overnight.
I might have expoected a larger reaction to the sell off in stocks,
but that may well come tomorrow anyway.
The action today looks corrective off that early high at 1587.
So this rally could still develop higher in wave ‘iii’ of (iii) over the coming days.
The alternate count can’t be ruled out just yet either.
the rise off the low at wave (ii) is in three waves,
so I want this rally to continue higher this week,
and break resistance at 1611 to confirm wave (iii) is underway.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘iii’ to push above 1600 again.
Wave ‘iii’ up should hold above 1582 and use that level as support.
CRUDE OIL.
CRUDE OIL 1hr.
CRUDE OIL 4hr.
CRUDE OIL daily.
In the last three weeks crude oil has fallen 1300 points give or take!
And there has not been much of an answer to that decline.
With the strength of that decline in mind,
I have altered the wave count to show a possible explanation for that continued drop.
The action so far is labelled as a series of 1,2, impulse waves lower still underway.
Wave (i) has fallen in five waves into the recent lows,
and this suggests that we will get a correction higher in wave (ii) this week
which should unwind some of the downside momentum.
Wave (ii) should be a clear three wave pattern to the upside,
and I would like to see it complete below 57.40 at the previous wave [i] low.
Tomorrow;
Any correction higher from here will signal wave (ii) has begun.
Once wave (ii) is complete,
wave (iii) of [iii] should turn lower for a sustained decline phase.
S&P 500.
S&P 500 1hr
S&P 500 4hr
S&P 500 daily.
The drop off the high in the S&P is a little clearer than the DOW.
The action so far is very impulsive indeed and may have completed five waves down at the low today.
As you can see,
two days of selling in wave (i),
has retraced a good portion of that a three week rally in wave (v) grey.
That is how quick a bearmarket can wipe the smile off the unsuspecting public.
Tomorrow;
It is very possible that wave (i) is not done yet,
we have further weakness as we hit the close this evening so we may see an extension lower in wave ‘v’ of (i) tomorrow.
Watch for wave (i) to complete soon.
A push above 3263 again will signal wave (ii) has begun.
SILVER.
SILVER 1hr
SILVER 4hr.
SILVER daily.
Silver is falling today in a possible wave ‘iv’ of (i) as shown.
I expect wave (i) will continue higher towards resistance at the 18.80 high before the week is done.
A break of the wave [i] high will likely occur in wave (iii),
and that should confirm that the larger wave [iii] has begun.
And we should then see a sustained rally in wave (iii) of [iii] over the coming month.
We have some work to do before we get to that point though.
Tomorrow;
watch for wave ‘iv’ to complete overnight and wave ‘v’ of (i) to begin tomorrow.
The low at 17.59 must hold for this bullish count to remain valid.
U.S 10YR.
US 10YR 1hr.
US 10YR 4hr.
US 10YR daily.
The rise in wave [ii] has extended higher today.
The rally in wave (c) of [ii] is very much a three wave rally though as shown.
Three waves suggest a correction higher,
so I still expect this to be completely retraced over the coming month or so
as wave [iii] down gets underway.
Tomorrow;
the next level of resistance above us lies at 131.97.
The trend channel is filled now in wave (c),
so this should be enough to begin to turn the price down again into wave (i) of [iii].
Watch for wave (i) to begin soon with a drop back to the 128.89 level again.