Good evening folks, And God Bless you all tonight.

Closing the week with a special update on Sentiment: $SPX Daily Sentiment 50dma near the Top 5% most overbought days in history (34 years). Could extend a bit higher, but history suggests time’s running out. Monitor closely for signs of a reversal – will revisit, stay nimble.

EURUSD.

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

EURUSD has fallen back off the upper trend channel line today after a possible three wave up correction in wave [ii].
The decline into wave [iii] is expected this week,
but it is not confirmed yet even with todays drop.
I would like to see a break of the internal wave (b) at 1.2076 to confirm the market has turned into wave (i) of [iii].

Tomorrow;
Watch for the high at 1.2190 to hold from now on.
Wave (i) of [iii] to break below 1.2076 to signal wave [iii] has begun.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1hr.

GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

Todays trade has not indicated that wave (i) is underway yet.
The price range seems to be contracting into a triangle scenario at the moment,
I want to see this pattern break to the downside again tomorrow,
to push the pattern more in favor of the main count.

A break of that 1.3518 level will signal wave (i) is underway,
but we do need to se a five wave drop to reach that point.

Tomorrow;
So the setup is pretty unsure here at the moment.
The ending diagonal pattern looks complete at the recent highs,
but I am waiting for the price action to confirm that idea.

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 4hr.

USDJPY daily.

USDJPY is in a holding pattern today and again it looks like a small trinagle wave in play for wave ‘iv’.
the price must continue higher overnight to and break that all important wave (b) high at 104.09 to signal that wave (i) is in force.
Also,
if we hold above 103.66 at wave ‘i’ tomorrow,
that will add weight to this bullish count.

Tomorrow;
Watch for 103.66 to hold overnight and wave ‘v’ of (i) to continue higher tomorrow.

DOW JONES.

DOW 1hr.

DOW 4hr

DOW daily.

As if the action of late was not complicated enough,
todays action has opened up another possibility for this ending diagonal wave [v].

The price fell in three waves off the recent high,
and then todays session saw a sharp rally off the lows.
This counts well as a corrective decline into wave (iv) and now a three wave rally beginning in wave (v).
Todays sharp rally is wave ‘a’ of (v),
and I suspect we will see wave ‘a’ push up towards a double top tomorrow before correcting in wave ‘b’.

By the way,
I find it fascinating that the price is caught in a support / resistance battle between those two target levels for the green and blue wave counts!
Note worthy, that is all!

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘a’ to rally into resistance again
and then we should see a corrective decline again to another higher low in wave ‘b’ by midweek.

If the rally gives up and reverses without making a new high this week,
then we will be looking at the end of the road for this market sooner that later!

GOLD

GOLD 1hr.

GOLD 4hr.

GOLD daily.

Gold has not shown its hand just yet,
but we are getting close!

The price rallied off Fridays low in three waves into the high today.
This action suggests a three waves correction higher in wave (ii).
Now comes the test,
if we see a decline back below 1830 tomorrow,
that will indicate wave (iii) of [iii] is getting started.

We wont be able to confirm the larger wave [iii] has begun until we break the wave [i] low at 1802.

Tomorrow;
Watch for the wave (ii) high at 1867.
Wave ‘i’ of (iii) should break 1830.

CRUDE OIL.

CRUDE OIL 1hr.

CRUDE OIL 4hr.

CRUDE OIL daily.

Wave ‘v’ of (c) is now underway off Fridays lows.
The price formed a small higher low today after some corrective looking action early on.
And now this evening the price is rising again to push to a session high.
If wave ‘v’ is now in force,
then we will see a new high by tomorrow evening possibly.

Tomorrow;
Watch for the wave ‘iv’ low to hold at 51.40.
A break of that level again will favor the idea that the top is in at the recent high.

S&P 500.

S&P 500 1hr

S&P 500 4hr

S&P 500 daily.

We really are racing to the finish line in the S&P today!
The pattern is closing out nicely in wave (v) now to top out at an all time high and complete the ending diagonal.

The decline in the futures continued in the early session this morning,
and that completes a three wave corrective decline in wave ‘b’ of (v),
with wave ‘c’ of (v) now underway off the lows and moving higher this evening.
The price should reach a new high by midweek anyway.
And right now the upper trend line is suggesting a top at 3900 give or take a point!

This ending diagonal should put a nice bow on the bull market run since 2009!
Its bee a long road,
but the end is in sight!

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘c’ to push out to a new high soon.
That upper trend line should repel the price and offer a chance at reversing the action later in the week.

SILVER.

SILVER 1hr

SILVER 4hr.

SILVER daily.

What is needed in silver is pretty clear now.
The price must fall again this week in five waves to challenge the wave ‘1’ low at 24.00.
This action will signal wave ‘3’ has begun,
and then the danger level will rise significantly from that point.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (ii) of [i] of ‘3’ to hold at 25.75.
A drop below 25.00 again will signal wave (iii) of [i] is underway.