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Hello everyone.
hope you survived the day intact.
I am going to jump right into it tonight, if you dont mind too much!
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UPCOMING RISK EVENTS:
USD: Advance GDP q/q, Durable Goods Orders m/m.
EUR: M3 Money Supply y/y,
GBP: Prelim GDP q/q, BOE Gov Carney Speaks.
JPY: BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]
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EURUSD
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[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: long term bearish
Wave Structure: Topping in wave [B] black.
Long term wave count: lower in wave [C] black.
The correction in wave 'iv' pink was short lived today,
Wave 'iv' seems to have traced out a running flat correction.
And off that low today the market shot higher in wave 'v' pink.
That completes a five wave pattern in wave (iii) brown.
Wave (iv) has started this evening with initial support at the previous fourth wave of 1.2385.
The price is moving lower as I write,
So wave (iv) brown might complete quite quickly also.
For tomorrow;
Watch for a low in wave (iv) brown at nearby levels.
Wave (v) brown should then carry the price higher into the target at 1.2600 to complete the larger five wave structure.
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GBPUSD
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[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: short below parity in wave (5).
Wave Structure: continuing impulsive structure to the downside in wave (5)
Long term wave count: decline in wave (5) blue, below parity
Wave '4' grey is tracing out a larger structure going on todays price action.
The rise this morning was in three waves,
and has now been full retraced.
The wave pattern in wave '4' grey looks like an expanded flat correction.
And wave '4' should complete at a nearby level.
Wave is expected to carry the price to the trendline again in wave '5' grey.
For tomorrow;
This pair is close to completing a multi year correction at a very high degree of trend.
So,
from here on I will be looking for signs of a top to form in wave (4) blue.
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USDJPY
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[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: LONG
Wave Structure: rally in wave [C]
Long term wave count: wave [C] is underway, upside to above 136.00
USDJPY inched lower today while hugging the trendline all the way.
Downside momentum has died on the short term chart,
And the price has popped impulsively this evening.
This is again looking good for the beginnings of a reversal in the fortunes of the USD.
The price is getting too close for comfort to the lower key support at 107.29,
So I want to see a five wave rally on the short term chart very soon to redeem the bullish stance.
For tomorrow;
I will be watching how this rally forms,
With one eye on the potential for a large rally in wave [iii] grey to begin.
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DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS
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[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: market topping process completing
Wave Structure: Impulsive 5 wave structure, topping in an all time high.
Long term wave count: topping in wave (5)
The main takeaway for stocks is the well established momentum divergence situation
on display across all three timeframes I track.
for the medium term direction of the market - the 4hr is most important.
On the 4hr chart we have a rocketing price along with plunging momentum.
The divergence is most startly visable in this timeframe.
As I am expecting this new bearmarket to arrive at any time,
the momentum setup is even more noteworthy here.
At this point,
I recommend exiting this market if you happen to have exposure to U.S stocks in your portfolio at this point.
In the short term,
The next target lies at 26589,
Where wave '5' reaches equality with wave '1' blue.
lets see how the week finishes.
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GOLD
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[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: Long to a new all time high above 1827.
Wave Structure: Impulse structure to a new high.
Long term wave count: wave (3) above 1666.
GOLD seems to have already completed the rally in wave [iii] at todays high.
This evenings sharp decline has raised that possibility.
A break of 1332, the previous wave (iv) low will confirm that view.
I have labeled the decline as the beginning of wave (a) of a three wave decline in wave [iv]
For tomorrow;
Lets see how this initial decline develops in wave (a),
Tomorrows action should give us a good indication of what to expect as wave [iv] develops.
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U.S CRUDE OIL
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[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: topping in a large correction wave [4].
Wave Structure: Double combination higher in wave [4] red.
Long term wave count: wave [4] target $63 - $70
Crude is now correcting quite sharply in a possible wave (iv) grey.
The high of wave (i) grey lies at 63.67,
So wave (iv) grey must not break below that level in order to remain valid.
Currently I have labelled the decline as an expanded flat wave (iv)
And the price should find support at the previous fourth wave at about 64.30.
Key support for the larger pattern lies at 62.78,
This is the low of the previous wave [iv] brown.
If the price breaks that level,
It will signal that the whole corrective rally in wave [4] red is completing,
The next major move for oil at that stage will be down, in a big way!
In the short term,
Watch for a higher low off nearby lows to signal that wave (v) grey has begun.
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