Good evening to one and all.

The Lord’s Blessing’s to you all again tonight.

Michael Wilson of Morgan Stanley warns of a big eps shock “Our work shows further erosion in earnings, with the gap between our model and the forward estimates as wide as it’s ever been. The last two times our model was this far below consensus, the S&P 500 fell by 34% and 49%.”

https://twitter.com/bullwavesreal

EURUSD.

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

EURUSD has spent the day drifting sideways and holding below yesterdays top.
The high at wave [i] has been a hard one to pinpoint for sure,
but I am confident that wave [i] is the correct label here.
and wave [ii] is coming our way sooner than the market thinks.

Sentiment has reached a suitable positive extreme now to call a top,
add that to the death of momentum and the pretty complete pattern,
and we have a good set of signals pointing to a near reversal in the trend.
Waiting for that reversal is proving to be the most difficult part of the process!

Tomorrow;
I am still looking for that initial break of support in wave ‘a’ to signal the turn is underway.
Watch for wave ‘a’ to be confirmed with a break of 1.0760.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1hr.

GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

Cable has traced out three waves down so far off that possible wave [b] top.
This pattern is not ideal as I want to see a five wave pattern lower to confirm wave [c] is underway.
I am going to give this pattern time to prove itself before dropping the idea completely.
In that case,
I need wave ‘iii’ of (i) to continue lower tomorrow and wave (i) to break 1.2080 again by the end of this week.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘ii’ to hold at 1.2414.
wave ‘iii’ down must continue towards support as shown.

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 4hr.

USDJPY daily.

USDJPY remains in limbo land for another day.
The recent high at 131.58 is holding at the moment,
I want to see a break of that level in order to tip the balance in favor of a bullish reversal higher.
Until the high at 131.58 is broken that alternate count remains a real possibility here.
So I am a little on edge while I await confirmation of a general reversal in favor of the USD.
I have been pointing to that possibility over the last few weeks and I am aware that has not materialized yet.
But this next move towards the USD should be a pretty big one,
so I think it will be worth waiting for.

Tomorrow;
WAtch for a break of 131.58 to favor the bullish potential here.
127.57 must hold.

DOW JONES.

DOW 1hr.

DOW 4hr

DOW daily.

The Dow is hovering around Mondays high again this evening and now I think we can say this wave ‘ii’ correction is tracing out three waves up overall.
The early decline today is a clear three wave pattern,
that takes the wave ‘b’ label.
And now we have a small new high in wave ‘c’ of ‘ii’.
The price has halted at the 62% retracement twice so far in wave ‘ii’.
A rejection of this level early in tomorrows session will be a good sign that wave ‘ii’ is done.

Tomorrow;
I woule like to see wave ‘1’ of ‘iii’ well established by the end of this week.
So a reversal tomorrow will be crucial to achieve that.
Wave ‘1’ of ‘iii’ should fall back into the low of wave ‘i’ pink.
This will be required to create an extented decline in wave ‘iii’ of (iii).

Watch for wave ‘c’ of ‘ii’ to top out and then fall into wave ‘iii’ of (iii) by the end of this week.

GOLD

GOLD 1hr.

GOLD 4hr.

GOLD daily.

A very slight new high in gold today but is it enough to call an end to this wave (v) rally?
That is the question tnight at least.
The price did drop back quickly after breaking that wave ‘a’ high today.
and this evening the price is holding at a lower high again.

Todays decline is not sufficient to signal wave (v) is complete yet,
so I will have to wait for that all important break of support at 1895 to suggest wave ‘a’ of (a) is underway.

Of course gold is making headlines all over the place these days,
that is after a 20% rally is in tha bag!
Right on cue really if you think of it.

The structure of the rally is continuing to point to topping process.
And the momentum picture on the 4hr chart is saying the same thing.
The ending diagonal wave (v) pattern fits that scenario perfectly.
And we already have enough internal waves to call that pattern complete.

Tomorrow;
Just like the stock market,
I think we are again hitting an important high here and reversal is only a matter of days away.
Watch that 1895 level as the initial signal level to a reversal into wave ‘a’ of (a).

CRUDE OIL.

CRUDE OIL 1hr.

CRUDE OIL 4hr.

CRUDE OIL daily.

I am almost reluctant to say it tonight,
but,
is that the top of wave (c) now in place??

A double top after a three wave rally is not a good sign for a continuing bull run that much is true.
I will admit that there is not enough downside to call wave (i) underway at all yet.
The firts sign that wave (c) has topped out will be a break of the wave ‘iv’ low at 78.44 again.
If this decline breaks the wave ‘iv’ low tomorrow,
then we have a potential wave (i) of [iii] pattern underway.

Tomorrow;
WAtch for wave (c) of [ii] to hold at that double top high at 82.65.
Wave (i) should trace out five waves down again this week.
So I will be watching that 78.00 handle with interest tomorrow.

S&P 500.

S&P 500 1hr

S&P 500 4hr

S&P 500 daily.

If we look at the previous wave [i] and [ii] decline on the 4hr chart we can see that the corrective rally in wave [ii] managed to hold on all the way up to the 78.6% retracement level before turning down in a meaningful way.
That wave [ii] correction higher took what seems to be an endless time to complete,
but it did complete and turned down impulsively to begin wave [iii].

Now we are standing at a similar point in the wave structure at one lower degree.
The wave (i) decline was a solid impulse wave,
and now wave (ii) is holding on for dear life and taking an age to complete.
The market does not want to let go of that bullish dream,
especially when the nightmare is staring us in the face here.
This rally will break too I suspect.
and wave (iii) of [iii] will be a real stinger to burst any soft landing dreams.

Tomorrow;
WAve (ii) blue is now holding below the 78.6% retracement level of wave (i).
And just like the previous corrective rally,
it seems like this will never break.

But wave ‘i’ of (iii) will retrace much of the wave (ii) advance if I am correct here.
And I am still hoping for that initial decline into wave (iii) to come this week.

3880 is the level to watch now for wave ‘i’ to begin.
The high at wave [ii] must hold at 4138.

SILVER.

SILVER 1hr

SILVER 4hr.

SILVER daily.

Given the erratic action lately you would be forgiven for asking who is in control here.
The action is about as ‘clear as muck’ as we like to say here in the west of Ireland.

The steep declines that have happened over the past few sessions have shown a developing shift in the action for sure.
The market continues to build lower highs in the pattern, and so far this week we have another failure at a lower high.
The wave ‘ii’ of (iii) scenario is still in play here.

I am willing to rule out this bearish wave count if we see a rally back above 24.00 again.
But over the last few weeks the real impulsive moves in the price action have been to the downside,
And this is building my case for a reversal underway.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘ii’ to hold and turn lower into wave ‘iii’ with a break of the 22.75 level again.