[vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator border_width="5"][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Hi everyone.
The dollar took a hammering today!
It was expected to a large degree against the Euro and GBP,
I had hopes that the USDJPY would lead the way in a large USD resurgence.
But that will have to wait for another week or so now.
And of course,
now we are hearing the cries of a USD demise,
Hyper inflation is now coming back into fashion as theme.
so in general, market watchers see no change in the decline of the USD.
It is times like these that create a very ripe environment for a turn.
Extreme negativity means the trend has run its course.
Now that EURUSD and Cable have met their targets,
It is time to expect a rally in the USD,
Not hyperinflation and dollar collapse.
You will not be needing your wheelbarrows any time soon guys![/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]
UPCOMING RISK EVENTS:
USD: WEF Annual Meetings, Unemployment Claims, New Home Sales.
EUR: Spanish Unemployment Rate, German Ifo Business Climate, Minimum Bid Rate, ECB Press Conference,
GBP: N/A.
JPY: N/A.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]
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EURUSD
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[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: long term bearish
Wave Structure: Topping in wave [B] black.
Long term wave count: lower in wave [C] black.
EURUSD continued to rally in a possible wave (iii) of [v] today.
This suggests that there is more room to move to the upside in wave [v] green.
The target I have set on the short term chart lies at 1.2625.
This is where wave [v] green reaches equality with wave [i] green.
The price is likely to hit the upper trend channel line in this final wave up.
We are now drawing to a close in this whole 3 year rally phase,
And once this last wave is complete,
the stage will be set for the larger downtrend to gain force again.
For tomorrow;
Wave (iii) should continue with a minor correction in wave 'iv' pink.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]
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GBPUSD
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[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: short below parity in wave (5).
Wave Structure: continuing impulsive structure to the downside in wave (5)
Long term wave count: decline in wave (5) blue, below parity
Cable rallied up to and actually touched the upper trend channel line at todays high.
The price has stalled this evening in a possible wave '4' grey.
With wave '5' grey expected to complete the larger pattern at six degrees of trend.
the upper target at the FIB extension lies at 1.4310.
That level should offer resistance to the rally.
for tomorrow;
watch for wave 'v' pink to complete at the target.
lets see if we get an initial turn down to signal the completion of wave (4).
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USDJPY
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[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: LONG
Wave Structure: rally in wave [C]
Long term wave count: wave [C] is underway, upside to above 136.00
I have shown a different interpretation of the decline in wave (c) green in USDJPY
The price may have traced out a five wave structure in brown labels.
And this decline is all but complete at the lower trendline.
The contraction in price over the last week was decieving initially,
But,
It does make sense if viewed as a contracting triangle wave 'iv' brown,
And todays decline in wave 'v' has completed the structure.
For tomorrow;
this market is oversold in the extreme,
And it will be the first market to show a dollar strenghtening.
Watch for a significant low to form in wave (c) of [ii].
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DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS
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[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: market topping process completing
Wave Structure: Impulsive 5 wave structure, topping in an all time high.
Long term wave count: topping in wave (5)
The DOW reached and surpassed the initial target at 26336 today.
The high of the day reached 26391,
and since the high the market took a hit of about 280 points into the session low.
So again we watch to see if a larger five wave pattern forms off the high to the downside.
I am looking for an impulse pattern in wave 'i' pink to the downside,
followed by a lower high in wave 'ii' pink.
This will form a bearish elliott wave signal and a possible top in place.
for tomorrow;
First the high must hold at 26391,
A break of the previous 4th wave at 25943 will add weight to the bearish view.
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GOLD
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[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: Long to a new all time high above 1827.
Wave Structure: Impulse structure to a new high.
Long term wave count: wave (3) above 1666.
GOLD rallied in wave 'iii' pink in keeping with the short term pattern.
Wave 'iii' may be complete at todays high.
If so,
We can expect a decline in wave 'iv' pink to stall the rally tomorrow,
The upper trend channel line is now within reach,
The price will hit that line at about 1380 and change.
At that point it will be time to look for a correction in either wave [iv]
or wave [ii] as per the alternate count.
For tomorrow;
watch for a minor correction in wave 'iv' pink.
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U.S CRUDE OIL
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[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: topping in a large correction wave [4].
Wave Structure: Double combination higher in wave [4] red.
Long term wave count: wave [4] target $63 - $70
Crude is rallying powerfully into the close this evening.
This rally is viewed within the context of wave (iii) grey which fits well with the price action.
As the price approaches the upper trend channel line
we should begin to see a slowing in momentum again in a series of fourth and fifth waves.
The next likely target for the completion of wave '5' blue lies at 67.33.
this is where wave '5' blue reaches a Fibonacci 161.8% of wave '1' blue.
For tomorrow;
Watch for wave (iii) to complete and a correction in wave (iv) grey to begin.
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