Good evening to one and all.

The Lord’s Blessing’s to you all again tonight.

This is a great presentation by Dave Rosenberg regarding the year ahead and what is coming for the markets. It is worth the time if you can spare it.

“Widespread Weakness” Across US Leading Economic Indicators “Signal Recession In The Near-Term”

And on a year-over-year basis, the LEI is down 6.04% – its biggest YoY drop since 2008 (Lehman) outside of the COVID lockdown-enforced collapse…

https://twitter.com/bullwavesreal

EURUSD.

EURUSD 1hr.

EURUSD 4hr.

EURUSD daily.

A few markets put in a reversal spike higher today and EURUSD is one of them.
The spike actually clears the pattern up a little to be honest.
I can now se a triangle wave ‘iv’ of (v).
And a new high in wave ‘v’ of (v) reached towards that wave (i) = (v) level at the high.
The price has again dropped this evening to retrace most of the gain today.
So I am viewing this as a rejection of that target.
The price is now free to continue lower in wave (a) of the rest of the week.
An I am looking at the 1.0550 area to complete three waves down in wave (a) of [ii].

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘a’ of (a) to fall back below 1.0760 at the lower end of the triangle range.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1hr.

GBPUSD 4hr.

GBPUSD daily.

Cable also made a very slight new high today which is confusing the patterns a little here.
The high of the session hit the previous wave ‘A’ high at 1.2445.
The expanded flat correction for wave ‘B’ is now the only option for this pattern now that wave [b] made a break above that high.
Wave [b] is still expected to top out pretty soon.
And wave [c] of ‘B’ should turn lower and trace out five waves down over the coming weeks.

First I need confirmation that wave [b] is complete and wave [c] is underway.
A five wave decline to break 1.2081 again will favor that count.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (i) of [c] to trace out five waves down to break 1.2100 again this week.

USDJPY.

USDJPY 1hr.

USDJPY 4hr.

USDJPY daily.

USDJPY made a new high today also!

The pattern off the recent low has not revealed itself yet though.
I am still grappling with the idea that this another possible wave [iv] and [v] combination as shown on the alternate count.
A break above the resistance between the recent spike high and the wave (b) high at 132.80 would go a long way to tipping the balance in favor of the bullish outlook.
But It seems I will have to wait on the action to confirm that idea.
A break above that band of resistance would diminish the bearish alternate count for sure.

Tomorrow;
Watch for a break above 131.58 as a sign that a new impulsive pattern is building off the wave [v] low.

DOW JONES.

DOW 1hr.

DOW 4hr

DOW daily.

The Dow did not make a new low for wave ‘i’ today by breaking that wave ‘b’ low at 32800.
I am not discouraged by this fact yet.
The five wave decline into that wave ‘i’ low is still valid.
And with that I can still expect a three wave recovery to a lower high in wave ‘ii’ as shown.
That corrective rally was on the cards this week.
And now after today rally the market has reached a lower high below wave (ii) blue.
The high of the session today has stopped just below the 62% retracement level at 33820.
And now the question is this.
Have we completed a bearish lower high at wave ‘ii’?

That remains to be seen,
but if we do see a failure here and a reversal to threaten the lows at wave (i) again this week.
That will really favor the wave ‘iii’ of (iii) idea here.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘ii’ to hold below the wave (ii) high at 34370.
I would prefer that this rally in wave ‘ii’ would completely reverse tomorrow.
So a decline into wave ‘1’ of ‘iii’ would be ideal.
A break of the wave ‘i’ low at 32930 will signal wave ‘iii’ has begun.

GOLD

GOLD 1hr.

GOLD 4hr.

GOLD daily.

Gold is again showing corrective action today and I can’t ignore that now.
The rise in wave ‘v’ of (v) is still in force here it seems.
And the most likely pattern in operation here is that ending diagonal as shown.
The final rise in wave ‘c’ of ‘v’ is still ahead of us now.
And I am allowing for that rally to begin tomorrow.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘c’ of ‘v’ to break to a new high above 1937 to complete the pattern in wave (v).
A break of the wave ‘iv’ low at 1895 again will signal wave (a) is underway.

CRUDE OIL.

CRUDE OIL 1hr.

CRUDE OIL 4hr.

CRUDE OIL daily.

I am puzzling over the action in crude today.
The price did hit a double top today after making an impulsive move lower last week.
I am going to allow for wave ‘v’ of (c) of [ii] to make another new high this week before looking for that wave [iii] decline to come in.
The 62% retracement lies at 84.28 and that seems like a reasonable new target for wave [ii] to top out again.
If that happens,
then I will begint he hunt for wave (i) of [iii] to begin.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘v’ of (c) to complete its run higher near the 62% retracement level.

A break of 78.40 again will favor the idea that wave (i) of [iii] is underway again.

S&P 500.

S&P 500 1hr

S&P 500 4hr

S&P 500 daily.

I have moved the wave count up today by one degree,
the prospects for the pattern remain the same with a third wave decline set to begin soon.

The rally today made a new high and retraced all of last weeks declines.
That obviously put a dent in the short term pattern from last Friday.

The immediate collapse into wave ‘iii’ of (iii) is postponed for the moment!

The action into todays high is still a corrective move I think.
And the highs this evening topped out below the 78.6% retracement level.
Last weeks low at 3880 now becomes an important support in terms of the developing pattern.

A quick decline to break that low at 3880 again will suggest wave ‘i’ of (iii) is in play again.
Wave ‘i’ of (iii) should fall back into the range of that wave ‘b’ correction at 3850 again.
So that level is the target for this weeks action.

Tomorrow;
Watch for that wave (ii) high to hold below the wave [ii] high.
A decline back below 3880 again will signal wave ‘i’ of (iii) is underway.

SILVER.

SILVER 1hr

SILVER 4hr.

SILVER daily.

Another sharp reversal today managed to break below the previous wave (i) low at 23.10 again.
This was followed by another spike rally back into the range of wave (i) again.

The action is not getting any clearer as the days go on here!
I have re labelled the pattern in wave (ii) to show a more complex pattern.
but I think this interpretation accounts for the overlapping in the price action a little better than previous.

In this count todays decline is viewed as wave ‘i’ and ‘ii’ of (iii).
Wave (iii) must continue lower this week and make some serious progress to confirm the pattern.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘ii’ of (iii) to hold a lower high throughout tomorrow.
once wave ‘ii’ completes a three wave correction.
Then I will look for wave ‘iii’ of (iii) to fall sharply towards the 21.00 area.